PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 05 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 121-127
33-37 33-29 29-26 26-35
Position#18
Record27-32
FormLWLLW
Points / game117.3
Allowed / game120.1
vs
Position#13
Record32-25
FormWWLWW
Points / game114.4
Allowed / game112.7
USANBA· State Farm Arena
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks
31 Dec 2026
ATL v MIL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
ATL122
MIL99
19 Jan 2026
ATL110
MIL112
04 Mar 2025
ATL121
MIL127
07 Feb 2025
ATL115
MIL110
30 Mar 2024
ATL113
MIL122
11 Jan 2023
ATL105
MIL114
07 Nov 2022
ATL117
MIL98
17 Jan 2022
ATL121
MIL114
14 Nov 2021
ATL120
MIL100
03 Jul 2021
ATL107
MIL118
29 Jun 2021
ATL110
MIL88
27 Jun 2021
ATL102
MIL113
25 Apr 2021
ATL111
MIL104
15 Apr 2021
ATL109
MIL120
27 Dec 2019
ATL86
MIL112
20 Nov 2019
ATL127
MIL135
31 Mar 2019
ATL136
MIL135
13 Jan 2019
ATL114
MIL133
29 Oct 2017
ATL106
MIL117
15 Jan 2017
ATL111
MIL98
16 Nov 2016
ATL107
MIL100
25 Mar 2016
ATL101
MIL90
20 Feb 2016
ATL109
MIL117
30 Mar 2015
ATL101
MIL88
26 Dec 2014
ATL77
MIL107
13 Mar 2014
ATL102
MIL97
12 Apr 2013
ATL109
MIL104
20 Mar 2013
ATL98
MIL90
02 Mar 2012
ATL99
MIL94
15 Mar 2011
ATL110
MIL85
10 Nov 2010
ATL91
MIL108
02 May 2010
ATL95
MIL74
28 Apr 2010
ATL87
MIL91
20 Apr 2010
ATL96
MIL86
17 Apr 2010
ATL102
MIL92
28 Feb 2010
ATL106
MIL102
23 Jan 2009
ATL117
MIL87
26 Nov 2008
ATL102
MIL96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atlanta Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Atlanta HawksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
W
115-110
115
110
+5
112avg 109
H08/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
125-111
125
111
+14
120avg 109
A09/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
112-106
112
106
+6
112avg 109
A11/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
148-149 OT
148
149
-1
142avg 109
A13/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
108-114
108
114
-6
90avg 109
H21/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
L
143-148
143
148
-5
132avg 109
H23/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
W
98-86
98
86
+12
96avg 109
H25/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
L
109-131
109
131
-22
104avg 109
A27/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
119-135
119
135
-16
114avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
132-130
132
130
+2
124avg 109
A04/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-26
19-47
37-17
23-20
26-30
37-28
41-25
21-28
25-22
25-35
33-25
29-24
29-38
31-30
41-36
36-33
33-21
25-38
23-31
27-24
30-33
38-43
35-36
40-36
23-22
27-20
23-23
25-21
28-29
37-36
28-42
16-24
23-40
41-31
20-37
35-27
28-34
42-31
31-42
31-23
242.9Avg total
120.9Scored
122.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)117.3120.1237.4-2.846%
Season at home (28)116.9119.3236.2-2.446%
Season away (31)117.6120.9238.5-3.345%
Last 10 (10)120.9122.0242.9-1.150%
Last 5 (5)120.2126.0246.2-5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)115.6125.5241.1-9.920%
vs Similar ◀ (18)116.2117.0233.2-0.844%
vs Weaker (2)124.5116.0240.5+8.5100%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
110-115
110
115
-5
100avg 106
A08/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
135-127
135
127
+8
126avg 106
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
111-125
111
125
-14
100avg 106
H11/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
103-101
103
101
+2
97avg 106
A13/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
116-110
116
110
+6
110avg 106
H21/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
104-101
104
101
+3
97avg 106
A22/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
W
120-113
120
113
+7
113avg 106
H23/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
97-100
97
100
-3
80avg 106
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
121-112
121
112
+9
114avg 106
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
132-117
132
117
+15
136avg 106
A02/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-36
47-19
17-37
20-23
40-39
25-24
38-28
32-36
27-29
24-29
32-31
28-36
36-24
15-26
19-19
33-32
28-29
29-21
23-39
36-21
19-32
31-24
34-19
20-26
23-37
32-28
30-28
35-20
25-30
34-27
26-28
12-15
30-30
24-27
30-24
37-31
31-36
40-27
30-16
31-38
227.0Avg total
114.9Scored
112.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (57)114.4112.7227.2+1.756%
Season at home (28)117.8111.4229.2+6.468%
Season away (29)111.2114.0225.2-2.845%
Last 10 (10)114.9112.1227.0+2.870%
Last 5 (5)114.8108.6223.4+6.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)96.0125.0221.0-29.00%
vs Similar ◀ (17)115.8113.5229.4+2.359%
vs Weaker (12)118.3113.1231.4+5.267%
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -3.7-3.7Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -3.7-3.7Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +0.6+0.6
Atlanta HawksMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Atlanta HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
55-73
55
73
-18
H08/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
63-58
63
58
+5
A09/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A11/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
60-68
60
68
-8
A13/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
58-59
58
59
-1
H21/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
L
68-76
68
76
-8
H23/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H25/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
D
65-65
65
65
+0
A27/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
64-71
64
71
-7
H01/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A04/03
NBA
123.7Avg total
60.3Scored
63.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.762.4122.1-2.743%-
Last 30 at home (12)56.862.1118.9-5.233%-
Last 30 away (18)61.662.6124.2-0.950%-
Last 10 (10)60.363.4123.7-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)63.463.8127.2-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)58.963.4122.3-4.540%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)59.762.1121.7-2.439%-
vs Weaker (2)64.060.0124.0+4.0100%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
73-55
73
55
+18
A08/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
65-63
65
63
+2
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H11/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
51-50
51
50
+1
A13/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H21/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A22/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
L
55-65
55
65
-10
H23/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
59-57
59
57
+2
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
54-57
54
57
-3
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
71-63
71
63
+8
A02/03
NBA
116.0Avg total
58.6Scored
57.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.457.9118.3+2.560%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.655.1115.8+5.564%-
Last 30 away (16)60.260.3120.6-0.156%-
Last 10 (10)58.657.4116.0+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)57.859.6117.4-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)44.078.0122.0-34.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)60.157.1117.2+2.959%-
vs Weaker (12)62.357.3119.7+5.067%-
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atlanta Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atlanta Hawks: 120.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.431.3
55.5%
54.3%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.113.8
38.2%
35.9%41.4
🏀 Free throws23.316.9
72.5%
77.8%16.9
They take 92.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 114.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.326.1
54.0%
54.3%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.214.4
36.7%
35.9%43.2
🏀 Free throws24.119.5
80.9%
77.8%19.5
They take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atlanta Hawks
WLLWLLLWWW
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLWWWWLWL
#18
League position
#13
-1.1
Net rating
+2.7
115.7
Offensive rating
111.9
116.8
Defensive rating
109.1
56.2%
Effective FG%
54.5%
57.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
12.8%
Turnover %
12.9%
26.2%
Off. rebound %
19.4%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
38.2%
3-point %
36.7%
68.1%
Assist %
61.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 111.9Defence116.8 · 109.1Shooting56.2% · 54.5%3-point %38.2% · 36.7%Ball care12.8% · 12.9%Off. rebounds26.2% · 19.4%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Atlanta Hawks   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Atlanta Hawks wins
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/25AMemphis Grizzlies132-130
01/03/25HOklahoma City Thunder119-135
27/02/25AMiami Heat109-131
25/02/25HMiami Heat98-86
23/02/25HDetroit Pistons143-148
21/02/25HOrlando Magic108-114
13/02/25ANew York Knicks148-149 OT
11/02/25AOrlando Magic112-106
09/02/25AWashington Wizards125-111
08/02/25HMilwaukee Bucks115-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25ADallas Mavericks132-117
28/02/25HDenver Nuggets121-112
26/02/25AHouston Rockets97-100
23/02/25HMiami Heat120-113
22/02/25AWashington Wizards104-101
21/02/25HLos Angeles Clippers116-110
13/02/25AMinnesota Timberwolves103-101
11/02/25HGolden State Warriors111-125
09/02/25HPhiladelphia 76ers135-127
08/02/25AAtlanta Hawks110-115

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW46%
HomeWLLWL46%
AwayWWLLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592831
Win %46%46%45%
Points / game117.3116.9117.6
Allowed / game120.1119.3120.9
Point differential-2.8-2.4-3.3
Avg total237.4236.2238.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%21%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won59% (22)55% (11)64% (11)
Overtime %7%4%10%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW56%
HomeWLWWW68%
AwayLWWLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games572829
Win %56%68%45%
Points / game114.4117.8111.2
Allowed / game112.7111.4114.0
Point differential+1.7+6.4-2.8
Avg total227.2229.2225.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (14)25% (4)50% (10)
Overtime %2%4%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers60501083%123.1111.6+11.5
2 Oklahoma City Thunder59481181%119.8107.2+12.6
3 Boston Celtics61431870%116.8108.2+8.6
4 New York Knicks59401968%117.9113.0+4.9
5 Los Angeles Lakers59382164%112.7111.1+1.6
6 Denver Nuggets61392264%121.1116.0+5.1
7 Memphis Grizzlies61382362%123.3117.0+6.3
8 Houston Rockets60362460%113.3109.7+3.6
9 Indiana Pacers60352558%116.6115.1+1.5
10 Detroit Pistons62352756%114.7112.9+1.8
11 Milwaukee Bucks57322556%114.4112.7+1.7
12 Golden State Warriors60332755%113.5111.5+2.0
13 Los Angeles Clippers60322853%110.6108.6+2.0
14 Sacramento Kings60322853%116.9115.0+1.9
15 Minnesota Timberwolves62332953%112.1109.0+3.0
16 Dallas Mavericks61322952%114.9113.5+1.3
17 Miami Heat60293148%110.2110.5-0.3
18 Orlando Magic62293347%104.1105.7-1.6
19 Phoenix Suns61283346%113.8115.9-2.2
20 Atlanta Hawks59273246%117.3120.1-2.8
21 Portland Trail Blazers62283445%110.7114.2-3.6
22 San Antonio Spurs59253442%113.1115.3-2.2
23 Chicago Bulls61243739%116.5120.4-4.0
24 Philadelphia 76ers60213935%109.0113.6-4.6
25 Brooklyn Nets60213935%104.8111.3-6.5
26 Toronto Raptors62204232%110.4116.1-5.7
27 New Orleans Pelicans61174428%111.0118.7-7.8
28 Utah Jazz61154625%112.3119.7-7.4
29 Charlotte Hornets60144623%105.1112.9-7.8
30 Washington Wizards60114918%108.1120.6-12.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Atlanta Hawks33332926121
Milwaukee Bucks37292635127
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.