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Minas vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 May 2024
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 104-79
32-14 22-18 21-24 29-23
Position#3
Record31-10
FormWWWLL
Points / game85.5
Allowed / game74.5
Minas 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#11
Record22-20
FormLWLWW
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game80.3
BrazilNBBNBB - Quarter-finals· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2023-24
Meetings · Minas v Sao Paulo
25 Jan 2025
MINA82
SAO 66
23 Dec 2024
MINA77
SAO 63
13 May 2024
MINA98
SAO 67
11 May 2024
MINA104
SAO 79
03 May 2024
MINA84
SAO 59
15 Feb 2024
MINA86
SAO 94
14 Mar 2023
MINA87
SAO 76
07 Apr 2022
MINA79
SAO 93
31 Mar 2022
MINA61
SAO 82
22 Jan 2022
MINA78
SAO 77
10 May 2021
MINA70
SAO 88
13 Apr 2021
MINA75
SAO 58
19 Jan 2021
MINA70
SAO 78
19 Dec 2020
MINA96
SAO 92
07 Feb 2020
MINA85
SAO 87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-51
81
51
+30
84avg 83
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
91-73
91
73
+18
91avg 83
H30/03
NBB
Pato
#12
W
77-69
77
69
+8
71avg 83
A05/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
99-88
99
88
+11
102avg 83
A10/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
88-78
88
78
+10
85avg 83
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
83-73
83
73
+10
81avg 83
A19/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
81-73
81
73
+8
84avg 83
H23/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
84-59
84
59
+25
78avg 83
H03/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
74-105
74
105
-31
69avg 83
A06/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
84-86
84
86
-2
80avg 83
A08/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-22
23-9
21-7
23-13
24-13
15-20
30-20
22-20
18-22
24-11
15-23
20-13
17-25
25-21
24-20
33-22
21-23
29-21
17-15
21-19
27-16
19-21
19-14
18-22
20-13
15-26
21-14
25-20
25-18
17-13
25-11
17-17
15-29
22-23
19-28
18-25
16-19
25-14
26-29
17-24
159.7Avg total
84.2Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)85.574.5160.0+11.076%
Season at home (20)84.870.2154.9+14.685%
Season away (21)86.278.6164.8+7.667%
Last 10 (10)84.275.5159.7+8.780%
Last 5 (5)81.279.2160.4+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)88.788.0176.7+0.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)85.972.6158.5+13.377%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#19
W
93-84
93
84
+9
87avg 74
H02/04
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
79-70
79
70
+9
76avg 74
H04/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
79-81
79
81
-2
74avg 74
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
63-72
63
72
-9
60avg 74
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
99-93
99
93
+6
99avg 74
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
104-107 OT
104
107
-3
93avg 74
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
88-82
88
82
+6
84avg 74
A25/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
59-84
59
84
-25
53avg 74
A03/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
105-74
105
74
+31
104avg 74
H06/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
86-84
86
84
+2
84avg 74
H08/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-29
27-11
20-22
23-22
24-18
20-18
15-14
20-20
22-19
20-16
13-24
24-22
17-23
15-19
18-15
13-15
35-17
20-24
23-27
21-25
24-21
20-26
14-20
30-21
23-28
31-12
20-24
14-18
18-25
13-17
11-25
17-17
29-15
23-22
28-19
25-18
19-16
14-25
29-26
24-17
168.6Avg total
85.5Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)80.180.3160.4-0.252%
Season at home (21)81.778.7160.4+3.062%
Season away (21)78.582.0160.5-3.443%
Last 10 (10)85.583.1168.6+2.460%
Last 5 (5)88.486.2174.6+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)88.687.7176.3+0.962%
vs Similar (11)80.577.6158.2+2.964%
vs Weaker (6)76.273.0149.2+3.250%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: -2.5-2.5Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.6+1.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: -2.5-2.5Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.6+1.6
MinasSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H30/03
NBB
Pato
#12
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A05/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A10/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A19/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H23/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H03/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A06/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A08/05
NBB
79.0Avg total
41.1Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.836.581.3+8.370%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.532.276.7+12.282%-
Last 30 away (13)45.342.187.4+3.254%-
Last 10 (10)41.137.979.0+3.270%-
Last 5 (5)40.238.478.6+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.743.389.0+2.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)44.735.880.5+8.973%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#19
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H02/04
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H04/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
55-41
55
41
+14
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A03/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H06/05
NBB
Minas
#3
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H08/05
NBB
83.8Avg total
43.7Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.139.982.0+2.253%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.438.181.5+5.462%-
Last 30 away (14)40.642.082.6-1.443%-
Last 10 (10)43.740.183.8+3.660%-
Last 5 (5)42.841.484.2+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)44.941.986.8+3.054%-
vs Similar (11)40.139.879.9+0.345%-
vs Weaker (6)39.835.775.5+4.267%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 83.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.717.9
56.5%
51.8%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.1
34.5%
33.9%30.3
🏀 Free throws22.317.5
78.5%
72.6%17.5
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 84.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.418.9
60.2%
51.8%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.511.1
38.9%
33.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws17.713.8
78.0%
72.6%13.8
They take 59.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 May 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minas
LLWWWWWWWW
Sao Paulo
WWLWLWLLWW
#3
League position
#11
+11.8
Net rating
+3.0
115.7
Offensive rating
114.4
103.9
Defensive rating
111.5
54.2%
Effective FG%
59.3%
50.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
18.0%
Turnover %
17.0%
33.5%
Off. rebound %
20.8%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.5%
3-point %
38.9%
67.1%
Assist %
61.7%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 114.4Defence103.9 · 111.5Shooting54.2% · 59.3%3-point %34.5% · 38.9%Ball care18.0% · 17.0%Off. rebounds33.5% · 20.8%Free throws0.37 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Minas   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Minas wins
6
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
08/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas86-84
06/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas105-74
03/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo84-59
15/02/24Minas v Sao Paulo86-94
23/11/23Sao Paulo v Minas75-83
14/03/23Minas v Sao Paulo87-76
27/12/22Sao Paulo v Minas100-83
07/04/22Minas v Sao Paulo79-93
31/03/22Minas v Sao Paulo61-82
22/01/22Minas v Sao Paulo78-77
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/05/24ASao Paulo84-86
06/05/24ASao Paulo74-105
03/05/24HSao Paulo84-59
23/04/24HUniao Corinthians81-73
19/04/24AUniao Corinthians83-73
12/04/24AUniao Corinthians88-78
10/04/24ACaxias do Sul99-88
05/04/24APato77-69
30/03/24HCorinthians Paulista91-73
27/03/24HPinheiros81-51
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/05/24HMinas86-84
06/05/24HMinas105-74
03/05/24AMinas59-84
25/04/24AUnifacisa88-82
23/04/24AUnifacisa104-107 OT
19/04/24HUnifacisa99-93
09/04/24ASao Jose63-72
07/04/24AMogi79-81
04/04/24HCerrado79-70
02/04/24HBrasilia93-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minas
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL76%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWWWLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412021
Win %76%85%67%
Points / game85.584.886.2
Allowed / game74.570.278.6
Point differential+11.0+14.6+7.6
Avg total160.0154.9164.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%55%52%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)75% (4)0% (4)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW52%
HomeWWWWW62%
AwayLLLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422121
Win %52%62%43%
Points / game80.181.778.5
Allowed / game80.378.782.0
Point differential-0.2+3.0-3.4
Avg total160.4160.4160.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%19%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (12)57% (7)20% (5)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo4136588%84.972.6+12.2
2 Franca4136588%87.675.4+12.1
3 Minas41311076%85.574.5+11.0
4 Bauru41281368%81.477.7+3.7
5 Vasco41271466%75.272.8+2.4
6 Unifacisa39241562%85.280.8+4.3
7 Paulistano41241759%75.470.7+4.7
8 Cearense41221954%78.377.2+1.0
9 Sao Paulo42222052%80.180.3-0.2
10 Corinthians Paulista38191950%80.980.0+0.9
11 Sao Jose38191950%78.778.2+0.4
12 Pato38172145%77.779.5-1.8
13 Pinheiros38152339%73.777.4-3.7
14 Mogi38102826%72.979.8-6.8
15 Botafogo38102826%78.988.0-9.1
16 Uniao Corinthians38102826%74.783.8-9.2
17 Cerrado3682822%74.978.0-3.1
18 Caxias do Sul3682822%72.581.5-9.0
19 Brasilia3653114%73.588.9-15.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minas32222129104
Sao Paulo1418242379
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