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Minas vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 03 May 2024
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 84-59
25-18 17-13 25-11 17-17
Position#3
Record30-8
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.9
Allowed / game73.8
Minas 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#11
Record20-19
FormLLWLW
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game80.3
BrazilNBBNBB - Quarter-finals· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2023-24
Meetings · Minas v Sao Paulo
25 Jan 2025
MINA82
SAO 66
23 Dec 2024
MINA77
SAO 63
13 May 2024
MINA98
SAO 67
11 May 2024
MINA104
SAO 79
03 May 2024
MINA84
SAO 59
15 Feb 2024
MINA86
SAO 94
14 Mar 2023
MINA87
SAO 76
07 Apr 2022
MINA79
SAO 93
31 Mar 2022
MINA61
SAO 82
22 Jan 2022
MINA78
SAO 77
10 May 2021
MINA70
SAO 88
13 Apr 2021
MINA75
SAO 58
19 Jan 2021
MINA70
SAO 78
19 Dec 2020
MINA96
SAO 92
07 Feb 2020
MINA85
SAO 87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Cearense
#8
L
69-79
69
79
-10
58avg 84
A20/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
96-98
96
98
-2
89avg 84
A22/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
73-56
73
56
+17
71avg 84
H25/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-51
81
51
+30
84avg 84
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
91-73
91
73
+18
91avg 84
H30/03
NBB
Pato
#12
W
77-69
77
69
+8
71avg 84
A05/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
99-88
99
88
+11
102avg 84
A10/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
88-78
88
78
+10
85avg 84
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
83-73
83
73
+10
81avg 84
A19/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
81-73
81
73
+8
84avg 84
H23/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-24
12-20
17-16
19-19
22-31
26-24
11-28
37-15
17-12
20-14
15-21
21-9
14-22
23-9
21-7
23-13
24-13
15-20
30-20
22-20
18-22
24-11
15-23
20-13
17-25
25-21
24-20
33-22
21-23
29-21
17-15
21-19
27-16
19-21
19-14
18-22
20-13
15-26
21-14
25-20
157.6Avg total
83.8Scored
73.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)85.973.8159.7+12.179%
Season at home (19)84.870.7155.5+14.184%
Season away (19)86.976.8163.8+10.174%
Last 10 (10)83.873.8157.6+10.080%
Last 5 (5)85.676.2161.8+9.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)88.788.0176.7+0.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)86.573.0159.5+13.477%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#15
L
79-83
79
83
-4
73avg 74
A25/03
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
78-88
78
88
-10
78avg 74
A29/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
80-70
80
70
+10
78avg 74
A30/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
93-84
93
84
+9
87avg 74
H02/04
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
79-70
79
70
+9
76avg 74
H04/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
79-81
79
81
-2
74avg 74
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
63-72
63
72
-9
60avg 74
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
99-93
99
93
+6
99avg 74
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
104-107 OT
104
107
-3
93avg 74
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
88-82
88
82
+6
84avg 74
A25/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
21-25
15-12
22-26
23-30
21-22
14-22
20-14
14-13
15-23
20-15
31-19
23-29
27-11
20-22
23-22
24-18
20-18
15-14
20-20
22-19
20-16
13-24
24-22
17-23
15-19
18-15
13-15
35-17
20-24
23-27
21-25
24-21
20-26
14-20
30-21
23-28
31-12
20-24
14-18
167.2Avg total
84.2Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)79.980.3160.2-0.451%
Season at home (19)80.378.6158.9+1.658%
Season away (20)79.581.8161.3-2.345%
Last 10 (10)84.283.0167.2+1.250%
Last 5 (5)86.687.0173.6-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)90.289.8180.0+0.460%
vs Similar (13)80.378.8159.2+1.554%
vs Weaker (7)75.671.6147.1+4.057%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +6.7+6.7Q4: +1.6+1.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +6.7+6.7Q4: +1.6+1.6
MinasSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#8
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A20/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
48-55
48
55
-7
A22/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H25/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H30/03
NBB
Pato
#12
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A05/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A10/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A19/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H23/04
NBB
79.7Avg total
40.9Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.236.681.8+8.670%-
Last 30 at home (18)44.132.776.8+11.478%-
Last 30 away (12)46.842.589.3+4.358%-
Last 10 (10)40.938.879.7+2.160%-
Last 5 (5)43.039.882.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.743.389.0+2.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)45.135.981.0+9.273%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#15
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A25/03
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A29/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
29-36
29
36
-7
A30/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H02/04
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H04/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
55-41
55
41
+14
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/04
NBB
85.0Avg total
43.6Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.440.081.4+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.738.381.0+4.560%-
Last 30 away (15)40.041.881.8-1.840%-
Last 10 (10)43.641.485.0+2.250%-
Last 5 (5)45.441.086.4+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)46.842.589.3+4.360%-
vs Similar (13)38.940.479.3-1.538%-
vs Weaker (7)38.135.974.0+2.357%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 82.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.418.9
60.2%
51.8%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.110.1
35.9%
33.9%30.3
🏀 Free throws21.214.7
69.3%
72.6%14.7
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.318.2
58.1%
51.8%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.110.5
40.2%
33.9%31.5
🏀 Free throws18.815.1
80.3%
72.6%15.1
They take 57.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 May 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minas
WWWWWWWWLL
Sao Paulo
WLWLLWWWLL
#3
League position
#11
+13.3
Net rating
+0.5
115.0
Offensive rating
111.6
101.7
Defensive rating
111.1
57.2%
Effective FG%
59.1%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
18.2%
Turnover %
19.7%
31.2%
Off. rebound %
22.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.33
35.9%
3-point %
40.2%
65.2%
Assist %
58.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence115.0 · 111.6Defence101.7 · 111.1Shooting57.2% · 59.1%3-point %35.9% · 40.2%Ball care18.2% · 19.7%Off. rebounds31.2% · 22.0%Free throws0.36 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Minas   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Minas wins
7
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
15/02/24Minas v Sao Paulo86-94
23/11/23Sao Paulo v Minas75-83
14/03/23Minas v Sao Paulo87-76
27/12/22Sao Paulo v Minas100-83
07/04/22Minas v Sao Paulo79-93
31/03/22Minas v Sao Paulo61-82
22/01/22Minas v Sao Paulo78-77
04/01/22Sao Paulo v Minas91-87
15/05/21Sao Paulo v Minas80-79
12/05/21Sao Paulo v Minas90-85
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/04/24HUniao Corinthians81-73
19/04/24AUniao Corinthians83-73
12/04/24AUniao Corinthians88-78
10/04/24ACaxias do Sul99-88
05/04/24APato77-69
30/03/24HCorinthians Paulista91-73
27/03/24HPinheiros81-51
25/03/24HSao Jose73-56
22/03/24AUnifacisa96-98
20/03/24ACearense69-79
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/04/24AUnifacisa88-82
23/04/24AUnifacisa104-107 OT
19/04/24HUnifacisa99-93
09/04/24ASao Jose63-72
07/04/24AMogi79-81
04/04/24HCerrado79-70
02/04/24HBrasilia93-84
30/03/24AVasco80-70
29/03/24AFlamengo78-88
25/03/24ABotafogo79-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minas
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW79%
HomeWWWWW84%
AwayLWWWW74%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %79%84%74%
Points / game85.984.886.9
Allowed / game73.870.776.8
Point differential+12.1+14.1+10.1
Avg total159.7155.5163.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%53%58%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)75% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW51%
HomeWWWWW58%
AwayWLLLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391920
Win %51%58%45%
Points / game79.980.379.5
Allowed / game80.378.681.8
Point differential-0.4+1.6-2.4
Avg total160.2158.9161.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%16%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)50% (6)20% (5)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca3934587%87.775.5+12.2
2 Flamengo3833587%85.073.0+12.1
3 Minas3830879%85.973.8+12.1
4 Bauru38261268%81.978.3+3.6
5 Vasco38261268%75.672.6+3.1
6 Paulistano39241562%75.570.0+5.5
7 Unifacisa39241562%85.280.8+4.3
8 Cearense38221658%79.176.8+2.3
9 Sao Paulo39201951%79.980.3-0.4
10 Corinthians Paulista38191950%80.980.0+0.9
11 Sao Jose38191950%78.778.2+0.4
12 Pato38172145%77.779.5-1.8
13 Pinheiros38152339%73.777.4-3.7
14 Mogi38102826%72.979.8-6.8
15 Botafogo38102826%78.988.0-9.1
16 Uniao Corinthians38102826%74.783.8-9.2
17 Cerrado3682822%74.978.0-3.1
18 Caxias do Sul3682822%72.581.5-9.0
19 Brasilia3653114%73.588.9-15.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minas2517251784
Sao Paulo1813111759
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