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Pato vs Minas Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 05 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 69-77
22-18 11-24 23-15 13-20
Position#12
Record15-18
FormLWWWW
Points / game78.3
Allowed / game79.9
vs
Minas 🏆
Brazil
Position#3
Record25-8
FormLLWWW
Points / game85.9
Allowed / game73.4
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Pato v Minas
27 Oct 2025
PATO75
MINA76
03 Apr 2025
PATO72
MINA75
05 Apr 2024
PATO69
MINA77
21 Dec 2022
PATO74
MINA88
06 Feb 2022
PATO70
MINA101
14 Feb 2021
PATO67
MINA83
24 Oct 2019
PATO62
MINA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-88
80
88
-8
71avg 70
H05/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
74-80
74
80
-6
57avg 70
H07/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
79-89
79
89
-10
65avg 70
A15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
65-97
65
97
-32
54avg 70
A17/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
69-90
69
90
-21
56avg 70
A02/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
79-85
79
85
-6
71avg 70
A04/03
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
83-73
83
73
+10
80avg 70
H09/03
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
100-73
100
73
+27
96avg 70
H25/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
100-87
100
87
+13
93avg 70
H28/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
83-79
83
79
+4
72avg 70
H30/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-28
14-25
18-16
28-19
13-15
20-21
15-24
26-20
15-27
18-20
23-18
23-24
21-23
20-29
11-22
13-23
18-15
13-28
22-20
16-27
26-17
17-23
19-25
17-20
17-17
28-20
25-14
13-22
25-14
27-13
21-27
27-19
30-14
27-22
22-25
21-26
26-24
19-15
18-18
20-22
165.3Avg total
81.2Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)78.379.9158.2-1.645%
Season at home (17)82.277.2159.4+5.165%
Season away (16)74.282.8157.0-8.625%
Last 10 (10)81.284.1165.3-2.940%
Last 5 (5)89.079.4168.4+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)76.181.8157.9-5.733%
vs Similar (14)78.083.1161.1-5.136%
vs Weaker (7)85.173.0158.1+12.186%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Mogi
#14
W
102-65
102
65
+37
110avg 83
H08/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
86-94
86
94
-8
76avg 83
H15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
94-95
94
95
-1
77avg 83
A29/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
84-86 OT
84
86
-2
no box
A02/03
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
72-70
72
70
+2
73avg 83
H11/03
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
69-79
69
79
-10
58avg 83
A20/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
96-98
96
98
-2
89avg 83
A22/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
73-56
73
56
+17
71avg 83
H25/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-51
81
51
+30
84avg 83
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
91-73
91
73
+18
91avg 83
H30/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-10
30-19
22-18
15-18
28-17
11-27
23-22
24-28
25-31
23-22
22-21
24-21
24-22
19-26
16-14
15-12
23-18
23-14
9-18
17-20
21-24
12-20
17-16
19-19
22-31
26-24
11-28
37-15
17-12
20-14
15-21
21-9
14-22
23-9
21-7
23-13
24-13
15-20
30-20
22-20
161.5Avg total
84.8Scored
76.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)85.973.4159.3+12.576%
Season at home (18)85.070.6155.6+14.483%
Season away (15)87.076.8163.8+10.267%
Last 10 (10)84.876.7161.5+8.150%
Last 5 (5)82.071.4153.4+10.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)84.286.2170.5-2.025%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)86.973.0160.0+13.976%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: +4.2+4.2
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: +4.2+4.2
PatoMinas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
34-53
34
53
-19
H05/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H07/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A17/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A02/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A04/03
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H09/03
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
52-27
52
27
+25
H25/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H28/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H30/03
NBB
82.4Avg total
41.4Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.339.478.7-0.147%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.538.178.6+2.553%-
Last 30 away (13)37.741.278.8-3.538%-
Last 10 (10)41.441.082.4+0.450%-
Last 5 (5)48.435.884.2+12.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)38.142.780.8-4.633%-
vs Similar (14)37.639.577.1-1.936%-
vs Weaker (7)44.335.079.3+9.386%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mogi
#14
W
65-29
65
29
+36
H08/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A29/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A02/03
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/03
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A20/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
48-55
48
55
-7
A22/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H25/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H30/03
NBB
83.0Avg total
43.5Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.436.181.6+9.373%-
Last 30 at home (20)44.433.277.6+11.180%-
Last 30 away (10)47.642.089.6+5.660%-
Last 10 (10)43.539.583.0+4.050%-
Last 5 (5)38.837.876.6+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)42.841.584.2+1.225%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)45.835.381.2+10.580%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 80.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.321.5
54.7%
51.8%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.59.1
33.1%
33.9%27.3
🏀 Free throws16.010.1
63.1%
72.6%10.1
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.418.9
60.2%
51.8%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.510.6
35.9%
33.9%31.8
🏀 Free throws20.915.0
71.8%
72.6%15.0
They take 60.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
WWWWLLLLLL
Minas
WWWLLWLLLW
#12
League position
#3
-3.7
Net rating
+12.4
109.4
Offensive rating
119.7
113.1
Defensive rating
107.2
52.6%
Effective FG%
57.1%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
15.1%
Turnover %
14.5%
29.8%
Off. rebound %
29.1%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.1%
3-point %
35.9%
53.3%
Assist %
61.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.4 · 119.7Defence113.1 · 107.2Shooting52.6% · 57.1%3-point %33.1% · 35.9%Ball care15.1% · 14.5%Off. rebounds29.8% · 29.1%Free throws0.24 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Pato   ■ Minas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pato wins
8
Minas wins
DateGameScore
22/12/23Minas v Pato84-75
31/03/23Minas v Pato82-90
21/12/22Pato v Minas74-88
06/02/22Pato v Minas70-101
05/11/21Minas v Pato79-67
14/02/21Pato v Minas67-83
12/11/20Minas v Pato76-54
15/01/20Minas v Pato86-76
24/10/19Pato v Minas62-80
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/03/24HPinheiros83-79
28/03/24HCorinthians Paulista100-87
25/03/24HMogi100-73
09/03/24HPaulistano83-73
04/03/24AUnifacisa79-85
02/03/24ACearense69-90
17/02/24AFranca65-97
15/02/24ABauru79-89
07/02/24HSao Paulo74-80
05/02/24HSao Jose80-88
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/03/24HCorinthians Paulista91-73
27/03/24HPinheiros81-51
25/03/24HSao Jose73-56
22/03/24AUnifacisa96-98
20/03/24ACearense69-79
11/03/24HPaulistano72-70
02/03/24ABauru84-86 OT
29/02/24AFranca94-95
15/02/24HSao Paulo86-94
08/02/24HMogi102-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW45%
HomeLWWWW65%
AwayWLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %45%65%25%
Points / game78.382.274.2
Allowed / game79.977.282.8
Point differential-1.6+5.1-8.6
Avg total158.2159.4157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%35%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)57% (7)0% (1)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Minas
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW76%
HomeLWWWW83%
AwayWLLLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331815
Win %76%83%67%
Points / game85.985.087.0
Allowed / game73.470.676.8
Point differential+12.5+14.4+10.2
Avg total159.3155.6163.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%56%53%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)75% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %6%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca3429585%87.776.2+11.5
2 Flamengo3429585%85.373.9+11.4
3 Minas3325876%85.973.4+12.5
4 Vasco33231070%75.973.1+2.8
5 Bauru35231266%82.079.2+2.8
6 Paulistano34211362%75.670.7+4.9
7 Unifacisa34211362%83.879.3+4.5
8 Cearense33181555%79.477.6+1.8
9 Corinthians Paulista33181555%81.579.8+1.7
10 Sao Jose34181653%79.978.1+1.9
11 Sao Paulo34181653%78.979.3-0.4
12 Pato33151845%78.379.9-1.6
13 Pinheiros33141942%75.077.7-2.7
14 Uniao Corinthians34102429%74.684.0-9.4
15 Botafogo3492526%79.187.9-8.8
16 Cerrado3382524%74.677.0-2.4
17 Mogi3382524%73.879.9-6.1
18 Caxias do Sul3482624%72.280.9-8.7
19 Brasilia3342912%72.688.7-16.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato2211231369
Minas1824152077
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