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Sao Paulo vs Minas Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 08 May 2024
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 86-84
19-16 14-25 29-26 24-17
Position#11
Record21-20
FormWLWLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game80.2
vs
Position#3
Record31-9
FormWWWWL
Points / game85.5
Allowed / game74.2
BrazilNBBNBB - Quarter-finals· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Minas
12 Apr 2025
SAO 71
MINA67
08 May 2024
SAO 86
MINA84
06 May 2024
SAO 105
MINA74
23 Nov 2023
SAO 75
MINA83
27 Dec 2022
SAO 100
MINA83
04 Jan 2022
SAO 91
MINA87
15 May 2021
SAO 80
MINA79
12 May 2021
SAO 90
MINA85
25 Feb 2021
SAO 90
MINA92
02 Nov 2019
SAO 75
MINA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Vasco
#4
W
80-70
80
70
+10
78avg 74
A30/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
93-84
93
84
+9
87avg 74
H02/04
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
79-70
79
70
+9
76avg 74
H04/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
79-81
79
81
-2
74avg 74
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
63-72
63
72
-9
60avg 74
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
99-93
99
93
+6
99avg 74
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
104-107 OT
104
107
-3
93avg 74
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
88-82
88
82
+6
84avg 74
A25/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
59-84
59
84
-25
53avg 74
A03/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
105-74
105
74
+31
104avg 74
H06/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-13
15-23
20-15
31-19
23-29
27-11
20-22
23-22
24-18
20-18
15-14
20-20
22-19
20-16
13-24
24-22
17-23
15-19
18-15
13-15
35-17
20-24
23-27
21-25
24-21
20-26
14-20
30-21
23-28
31-12
20-24
14-18
18-25
13-17
11-25
17-17
29-15
23-22
28-19
25-18
166.6Avg total
84.9Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)80.080.2160.2-0.251%
Season at home (20)81.578.4159.9+3.160%
Season away (21)78.582.0160.5-3.443%
Last 10 (10)84.981.7166.6+3.260%
Last 5 (5)91.088.0179.0+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)88.888.0176.8+0.858%
vs Similar (11)80.577.6158.2+2.964%
vs Weaker (7)75.671.6147.1+4.057%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
W
73-56
73
56
+17
71avg 83
H25/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-51
81
51
+30
84avg 83
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
91-73
91
73
+18
91avg 83
H30/03
NBB
Pato
#12
W
77-69
77
69
+8
71avg 83
A05/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
99-88
99
88
+11
102avg 83
A10/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
88-78
88
78
+10
85avg 83
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
83-73
83
73
+10
81avg 83
A19/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
81-73
81
73
+8
84avg 83
H23/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
84-59
84
59
+25
78avg 83
H03/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
74-105
74
105
-31
69avg 83
A06/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-12
20-14
15-21
21-9
14-22
23-9
21-7
23-13
24-13
15-20
30-20
22-20
18-22
24-11
15-23
20-13
17-25
25-21
24-20
33-22
21-23
29-21
17-15
21-19
27-16
19-21
19-14
18-22
20-13
15-26
21-14
25-20
25-18
17-13
25-11
17-17
15-29
22-23
19-28
18-25
155.6Avg total
83.1Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)85.574.2159.7+11.378%
Season at home (20)84.870.2154.9+14.685%
Season away (20)86.378.2164.6+8.070%
Last 10 (10)83.172.5155.6+10.690%
Last 5 (5)82.077.6159.6+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)88.788.0176.7+0.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)86.473.3159.7+13.077%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +3.8+3.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +3.8+3.8
Sao PauloMinas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vasco
#4
L
29-36
29
36
-7
A30/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H02/04
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H04/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
55-41
55
41
+14
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A03/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H06/05
NBB
82.9Avg total
43.3Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.039.881.7+2.253%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.137.982.0+6.367%-
Last 30 away (15)39.841.781.5-1.940%-
Last 10 (10)43.339.682.9+3.760%-
Last 5 (5)47.241.488.6+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)45.942.087.9+3.958%-
vs Similar (11)40.139.879.9+0.345%-
vs Weaker (7)38.135.974.0+2.357%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H25/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H30/03
NBB
Pato
#12
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A05/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A10/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A19/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H23/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H03/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A06/05
NBB
77.9Avg total
40.7Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.237.082.2+8.270%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.532.276.7+12.282%-
Last 30 away (13)46.143.289.3+2.854%-
Last 10 (10)40.737.277.9+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)42.040.682.6+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.743.389.0+2.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)45.136.381.4+8.773%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.718.6
58.7%
51.8%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.811.0
39.6%
33.9%33.0
🏀 Free throws17.713.9
78.5%
72.6%13.9
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.218.3
58.7%
51.8%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.0
34.2%
33.9%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.015.9
75.7%
72.6%15.9
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 May 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WLWLWLLWWW
Minas
LWWWWWWWWW
#11
League position
#3
+3.8
Net rating
+14.7
112.7
Offensive rating
114.1
109.0
Defensive rating
99.4
59.0%
Effective FG%
55.1%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
17.2%
Turnover %
18.6%
19.4%
Off. rebound %
31.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.35
39.6%
3-point %
34.2%
60.5%
Assist %
66.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence112.7 · 114.1Defence109.0 · 99.4Shooting59.0% · 55.1%3-point %39.6% · 34.2%Ball care17.2% · 18.6%Off. rebounds19.4% · 31.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Minas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Sao Paulo wins
4
Minas wins
DateGameScore
06/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas105-74
03/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo84-59
15/02/24Minas v Sao Paulo86-94
23/11/23Sao Paulo v Minas75-83
14/03/23Minas v Sao Paulo87-76
27/12/22Sao Paulo v Minas100-83
07/04/22Minas v Sao Paulo79-93
31/03/22Minas v Sao Paulo61-82
22/01/22Minas v Sao Paulo78-77
04/01/22Sao Paulo v Minas91-87
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/24HMinas105-74
03/05/24AMinas59-84
25/04/24AUnifacisa88-82
23/04/24AUnifacisa104-107 OT
19/04/24HUnifacisa99-93
09/04/24ASao Jose63-72
07/04/24AMogi79-81
04/04/24HCerrado79-70
02/04/24HBrasilia93-84
30/03/24AVasco80-70
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/24ASao Paulo74-105
03/05/24HSao Paulo84-59
23/04/24HUniao Corinthians81-73
19/04/24AUniao Corinthians83-73
12/04/24AUniao Corinthians88-78
10/04/24ACaxias do Sul99-88
05/04/24APato77-69
30/03/24HCorinthians Paulista91-73
27/03/24HPinheiros81-51
25/03/24HSao Jose73-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW51%
HomeWWWWW60%
AwayLLLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412021
Win %51%60%43%
Points / game80.081.578.5
Allowed / game80.278.482.0
Point differential-0.2+3.1-3.4
Avg total160.2159.9160.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%20%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)50% (6)20% (5)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Minas
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL78%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWWWWL70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402020
Win %78%85%70%
Points / game85.584.886.3
Allowed / game74.270.278.2
Point differential+11.3+14.6+8.1
Avg total159.7154.9164.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%55%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)75% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca4136588%87.675.4+12.1
2 Flamengo4035588%84.972.8+12.2
3 Minas4031978%85.574.2+11.3
4 Bauru40271368%81.878.2+3.6
5 Vasco40271368%75.672.9+2.7
6 Unifacisa39241562%85.280.8+4.3
7 Paulistano41241759%75.470.7+4.7
8 Cearense40221855%78.577.1+1.4
9 Sao Paulo41212051%80.080.2-0.2
10 Corinthians Paulista38191950%80.980.0+0.9
11 Sao Jose38191950%78.778.2+0.4
12 Pato38172145%77.779.5-1.8
13 Pinheiros38152339%73.777.4-3.7
14 Mogi38102826%72.979.8-6.8
15 Botafogo38102826%78.988.0-9.1
16 Uniao Corinthians38102826%74.783.8-9.2
17 Cerrado3682822%74.978.0-3.1
18 Caxias do Sul3682822%72.581.5-9.0
19 Brasilia3653114%73.588.9-15.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo1914292486
Minas1625261784
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