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Murray State vs Valparaiso Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 30 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#57
Record2-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game93.5
Allowed / game67.5
vs
Position#111
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game69.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Murray State v Valparaiso
30 Jan 2027
MURR v VALP
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
MURR92
VALP79
11 Jan 2025
MURR58
VALP47
24 Feb 2024
MURR80
VALP68
02 Mar 2023
MURR78
VALP50
26 Feb 2023
MURR77
VALP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-89
60
89
-29
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#187
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#380
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-34
48-47
31-39
29-50
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
42-39
51-32
158.4Avg total
78.8Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)93.567.5161.0+26.0100%
Season at home (1)93.071.0164.0+22.0100%
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.879.6158.4-0.850%
Last 5 (5)86.477.8164.2+8.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (15)81.778.6160.3+3.160%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)85.471.0156.4+14.4100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
L
64-86
64
86
-22
A13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-75
76
75
+1
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
79-80
79
80
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
84-90 OT
84
90
-6
A07/03
NCAA
Western Illinois
#336
W
80-58
80
58
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Purdue
#236
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-34
30-52
49-43
27-32
35-35
44-37
31-29
40-38
36-37
38-34
42-34
37-46
28-37
35-25
31-31
33-33
38-19
42-39
20-32
38-26
149.4Avg total
75.3Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)81.569.0150.5+12.5100%
Season at home (1)80.058.0138.0+22.0100%
Season away (1)83.080.0163.0+3.0100%
Last 10 (10)75.374.1149.4+1.270%
Last 5 (5)77.874.0151.8+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)66.868.2135.0-1.444%
vs Similar (14)74.176.1150.2-2.150%
vs Weaker (7)78.665.4144.0+13.171%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.6+2.61st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: -3.4-3.42nd half: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.6+2.61st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: -3.4-3.42nd half: +0.2+0.2
Murray StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#187
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#380
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H08/11
NCAA
72.6Avg total
37.6Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.236.175.3+3.063%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.234.674.8+5.681%-
Last 30 away (14)38.037.975.9+0.143%-
Last 10 (10)37.635.072.6+2.660%-
Last 5 (5)38.439.277.6-0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%-
vs Similar (15)38.136.774.7+1.447%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)43.431.975.2+11.5100%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A28/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H06/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A07/03
NCAA
Western Illinois
#336
W
38-19
38
19
+19
H03/11
NCAA
Purdue
#236
L
20-32
20
32
-12
A06/11
NCAA
67.5Avg total
34.4Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.832.265.9+1.643%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.130.166.2+6.062%-
Last 30 away (14)31.134.565.6-3.421%-
Last 10 (10)34.433.167.5+1.340%-
Last 5 (5)31.830.662.4+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)32.430.262.7+2.244%-
vs Similar (14)33.835.669.4-1.929%-
vs Weaker (7)35.427.763.1+7.771%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Murray State wins
0
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HNorthwestern St.93-71
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
10/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-89
07/02/26ASouthern Illinois91-81
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26APurdue83-80 OT
03/11/26HWestern Illinois80-58
07/03/26ABradley84-90 OT
06/03/26HIndiana State63-62
28/02/26AEvansville79-80
26/02/26HDrake74-71
21/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)71-67
19/02/26HBradley79-72
15/02/26HIndiana State76-75
13/02/26AIllinois State64-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.593.094.0
Allowed / game67.571.064.0
Point differential+26.0+22.0+30.0
Avg total161.0164.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game81.580.083.0
Allowed / game69.058.080.0
Point differential+12.5+22.0+3.0
Avg total150.5138.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %50%0%100%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illinois (Chi.)220100%87.551.5+36.0
2 Drake220100%88.058.0+30.0
3 Murray State220100%93.567.5+26.0
4 Belmont220100%73.549.5+24.0
5 Valparaiso220100%81.569.0+12.5
6 Evansville220100%79.073.0+6.0
7 Illinois State21150%92.572.5+20.0
8 Southern Illinois21150%87.570.0+17.5
9 Bradley21150%68.552.0+16.5
10 Northern Iowa21150%94.584.0+10.5
11 Indiana State21150%69.572.0-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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