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Murray State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 26 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 77-76 (OT)
33-32 32-33 12-11
Position#182
Record15-14
FormLLWWL
Points / game70.2
Allowed / game72.6
vs
Position#306
Record11-19
FormLWLLL
Points / game69.3
Allowed / game73.3
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Murray State v Valparaiso
30 Jan 2027
MURR v VALP
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
MURR92
VALP79
11 Jan 2025
MURR58
VALP47
24 Feb 2024
MURR80
VALP68
02 Mar 2023
MURR78
VALP50
26 Feb 2023
MURR77
VALP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#84
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H21/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
64-68
64
68
-4
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H28/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
83-82
83
82
+1
H02/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
56-99
56
99
-43
A04/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
68-92
68
92
-24
H08/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
48-83
48
83
-35
A11/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
76-75
76
75
+1
A16/02
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A22/02
NCAA
1H
2H
36-36
46-37
30-34
34-34
37-35
37-36
49-43
34-39
28-40
28-59
39-55
29-37
21-30
27-53
40-35
36-40
27-24
47-34
34-46
35-38
147.9Avg total
69.4Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)70.272.6142.8-2.352%
Season at home (13)73.067.5140.5+5.577%
Season away (16)68.076.8144.8-8.831%
Last 10 (10)69.478.5147.9-9.150%
Last 5 (5)67.078.4145.4-11.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)67.478.4145.8-11.031%
vs Similar ◀ (11)70.472.2142.5-1.855%
vs Weaker (6)74.560.3134.8+14.283%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#303
W
71-51
71
51
+20
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
66-77
66
77
-11
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H29/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
67-76 OT
67
76
-9
A02/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
82-85 OT
82
85
-3
H05/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
62-84
62
84
-22
A09/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H12/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
62-66
62
66
-4
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
73-74
73
74
-1
A19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
66-76
66
76
-10
H23/02
NCAA
1H
2H
33-24
38-27
28-45
38-32
43-28
38-41
35-28
30-37
35-31
31-35
39-46
23-38
42-38
39-38
19-27
43-39
36-41
37-33
30-42
36-34
144.5Avg total
71.1Scored
73.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)69.373.3142.7-4.037%
Season at home (17)71.669.9141.5+1.853%
Season away (13)66.377.8144.2-11.515%
Last 10 (10)71.173.4144.5-2.330%
Last 5 (5)68.875.2144.0-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)64.075.7139.7-11.76%
vs Similar ◀ (11)73.071.9144.9+1.164%
vs Weaker (3)84.366.0150.3+18.3100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: -1.0-1.02nd half2nd half: -5.4-5.42nd half: -0.1-0.1
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: -1.0-1.02nd half2nd half: -5.4-5.42nd half: -0.1-0.1
Murray StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#84
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H21/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H28/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H02/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
39-55
39
55
-16
H08/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
21-30
21
30
-9
A11/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A16/02
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
27-24
27
24
+3
H18/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A22/02
NCAA
71.9Avg total
34.1Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.733.766.4-1.043%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.433.167.6+1.357%-
Last 30 away (16)31.234.265.4-3.131%-
Last 10 (10)34.137.871.9-3.740%-
Last 5 (5)32.238.070.2-5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)32.136.268.3-4.231%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)32.334.566.8-2.345%-
vs Weaker (6)34.826.861.7+8.067%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#303
W
33-24
33
24
+9
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
28-45
28
45
-17
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H29/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A02/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H05/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A09/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H12/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
19-27
19
27
-8
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H23/02
NCAA
69.0Avg total
34.0Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.235.767.9-3.447%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.332.166.4+2.259%-
Last 30 away (13)29.540.369.8-10.831%-
Last 10 (10)34.035.069.0-1.050%-
Last 5 (5)33.238.872.0-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)28.937.866.6-8.919%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)34.434.468.7+0.073%-
vs Weaker (3)42.329.371.7+13.0100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Murray State wins
0
Valparaiso wins
DateGameScore
04/12/22Valparaiso v Murray State70-77 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/23AMissouri State69-84
18/02/23HEvansville74-58
16/02/23AIllinois State76-75
11/02/23ABradley48-83
08/02/23HDrake68-92
04/02/23AIndiana State56-99
02/02/23HBelmont83-82
28/01/23HMissouri State74-71
25/01/23ASouthern Illinois64-68
21/01/23HIndiana State82-73
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/23HBradley66-76
19/02/23AIllinois (Chi.)73-74
15/02/23HSouthern Illinois62-66
12/02/23HIllinois State81-76
09/02/23AIndiana State62-84
05/02/23HDrake82-85 OT
02/02/23AMissouri State67-76 OT
29/01/23HEvansville81-69
26/01/23ANorthern Iowa66-77
22/01/23AIllinois State71-51

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL52%
HomeWWWLW77%
AwayLLLWL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291316
Win %52%77%31%
Points / game70.273.068.0
Allowed / game72.667.576.8
Point differential-2.3+5.5-8.8
Avg total142.8140.5144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%23%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)80% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %7%8%6%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL37%
HomeWLWLL53%
AwayWLLLL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %37%53%15%
Points / game69.371.666.3
Allowed / game73.369.977.8
Point differential-4.0+1.8-11.5
Avg total142.7141.5144.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%29%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)57% (7)0% (2)
Overtime %13%18%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake3024680%76.164.5+11.6
2 Bradley3022873%71.561.3+10.1
3 Southern Illinois3122971%66.561.6+4.9
4 Belmont31211068%76.071.1+4.9
5 Indiana State31201165%78.768.9+9.8
6 Murray State29151452%70.272.6-2.3
7 Northern Iowa30131743%70.170.1-0.0
8 Illinois (Chi.)31121939%67.571.5-4.1
9 Valparaiso30111937%69.373.3-4.0
10 Illinois State31112035%66.670.3-3.7
11 Evansville3152616%62.575.4-12.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Murray State33321277
Valparaiso32331176
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