PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Murray State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 24 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 80-68
36-44 44-24
Position#296
Record11-17
FormLWWLL
Points / game70.7
Allowed / game69.2
vs
Position#355
Record6-22
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game75.4
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Murray State v Valparaiso
30 Jan 2027
MURR v VALP
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
MURR92
VALP79
11 Jan 2025
MURR58
VALP47
24 Feb 2024
MURR80
VALP68
02 Mar 2023
MURR78
VALP50
26 Feb 2023
MURR77
VALP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#13
L
63-72
63
72
-9
H21/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A25/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
58-60
58
60
-2
H27/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
L
59-61
59
61
-2
H31/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
71-43
71
43
+28
A03/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
64-69
64
69
-5
A08/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
73-70
73
70
+3
H10/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
W
82-72
82
72
+10
H15/02
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
72-95
72
95
-23
A18/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
68-72
68
72
-4
A22/02
NCAA
1H
2H
28-25
35-47
34-44
29-27
38-30
20-30
26-24
33-37
35-18
36-25
33-34
31-35
32-27
41-43
35-37
47-35
29-48
43-47
29-41
39-31
135.8Avg total
67.3Scored
68.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)70.769.2139.9+1.539%
Season at home (15)70.769.3140.1+1.447%
Season away (13)70.669.0139.6+1.631%
Last 10 (10)67.368.5135.8-1.230%
Last 5 (5)71.875.6147.4-3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)68.977.6146.5-8.78%
vs Similar (14)69.962.0131.9+7.957%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)81.361.3142.7+20.0100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H20/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
69-75
69
75
-6
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
70-81
70
81
-11
H27/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
70-81
70
81
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H03/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
61-101
61
101
-40
A08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
78-96
78
96
-18
H10/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
67-86
67
86
-19
H15/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
74-82
74
82
-8
A17/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H22/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-39
50-38
34-29
35-46
37-40
33-41
30-41
40-40
32-30
30-33
36-50
25-51
27-54
51-42
26-38
41-48
41-38
33-44
37-45
27-38
152.4Avg total
69.9Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)68.075.4143.4-7.321%
Season at home (16)69.174.1143.2-4.931%
Season away (12)66.677.1143.7-10.58%
Last 10 (10)69.982.5152.4-12.610%
Last 5 (5)68.889.6158.4-20.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)67.376.3143.5-9.019%
vs Similar (2)63.077.5140.5-14.50%
vs Weaker (2)78.063.5141.5+14.550%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: -0.9-0.91st half: -7.0-7.02nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -5.6-5.6
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: -0.9-0.91st half: -7.0-7.02nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: -5.6-5.6
Murray StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#13
W
28-25
28
25
+3
H21/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A25/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H27/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
W
26-24
26
24
+2
H31/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
35-18
35
18
+17
A03/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A08/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H10/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H15/02
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
29-48
29
48
-19
A18/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
29-41
29
41
-12
A22/02
NCAA
64.7Avg total
31.9Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.432.967.2+1.553%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.431.767.1+3.769%-
Last 30 away (14)33.234.267.4-1.036%-
Last 10 (10)31.932.864.7-0.950%-
Last 5 (5)31.637.469.0-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)34.138.973.0-4.831%-
vs Similar (14)33.127.960.9+5.264%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)41.730.071.7+11.7100%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H20/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H27/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H03/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
36-50
36
50
-14
A08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
27-54
27
54
-27
H10/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H15/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A17/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H22/02
NCAA
73.8Avg total
33.4Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.436.468.8-4.030%-
Last 30 at home (16)32.435.367.8-2.931%-
Last 30 away (14)32.437.770.1-5.429%-
Last 10 (10)33.440.473.8-7.030%-
Last 5 (5)33.445.078.4-11.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)31.837.669.5-5.827%-
vs Similar (2)28.535.564.0-7.00%-
vs Weaker (2)43.522.065.5+21.5100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Murray State wins
0
Valparaiso wins
DateGameScore
03/03/23Murray State v Valparaiso78-50
26/02/23Murray State v Valparaiso77-76 OT
04/12/22Valparaiso v Murray State70-77 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/24ASouthern Illinois68-72
18/02/24ADrake72-95
15/02/24HMissouri State82-72
10/02/24HEvansville73-70
08/02/24ABelmont64-69
03/02/24ANorthern Iowa71-43
31/01/24HIllinois State59-61
27/01/24HSouthern Illinois58-60
25/01/24ABradley63-71
21/01/24HIndiana State63-72
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/24HIndiana State64-83
17/02/24AMissouri State74-82
15/02/24HNorthern Iowa67-86
10/02/24HBelmont78-96
08/02/24AIndiana State61-101
03/02/24HEvansville62-63
01/02/24ADrake70-81
27/01/24HMissouri State70-81
25/01/24ASouthern Illinois69-75
20/01/24HIllinois (Chi.)84-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL39%
HomeLLLWW47%
AwayLWLLL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281513
Win %39%47%31%
Points / game70.770.770.6
Allowed / game69.269.369.0
Point differential+1.5+1.4+1.6
Avg total139.9140.1139.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%27%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won10% (10)25% (4)0% (6)
Overtime %4%0%8%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL21%
HomeLLLLL31%
AwayLLLLL8%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281612
Win %21%31%8%
Points / game68.069.166.6
Allowed / game75.474.177.1
Point differential-7.3-4.9-10.5
Avg total143.4143.2143.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)33% (3)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State2823582%84.272.0+12.2
2 Drake2823582%80.168.9+11.2
3 Bradley2819968%75.768.1+7.6
4 Southern Illinois28181064%72.967.1+5.8
5 Belmont28161257%77.277.1+0.1
6 Northern Iowa28151354%72.871.0+1.7
7 Evansville28151354%73.573.7-0.2
8 Illinois State28141450%67.268.2-0.9
9 Murray State28111739%70.769.2+1.5
10 Illinois (Chi.)28111739%69.769.3+0.4
11 Valparaiso2862221%68.075.4-7.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State364480
Valparaiso442468
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.