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Murray State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 92-79
45-36 47-43
Position#102
Record14-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game76.9
vs
Position#170
Record8-8
FormLLLWW
Points / game71.3
Allowed / game69.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Murray State v Valparaiso
30 Jan 2027
MURR v VALP
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
MURR92
VALP79
11 Jan 2025
MURR58
VALP47
24 Feb 2024
MURR80
VALP68
02 Mar 2023
MURR78
VALP50
26 Feb 2023
MURR77
VALP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
W
96-95
96
95
+1
H26/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
84-52
84
52
+32
H03/12
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
81-68
81
68
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
115-100
115
100
+15
A13/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
81-72
81
72
+9
H19/12
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
85-79
85
79
+6
A21/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A02/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
86-66
86
66
+20
H04/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
79-69
79
69
+10
A08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
45-43
51-52
33-28
51-24
47-34
34-34
47-42
68-58
36-30
45-42
36-39
49-40
47-34
37-47
36-40
45-37
50-32
36-34
42-30
37-39
163.1Avg total
87.2Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)87.776.9164.6+10.882%
Season at home (10)89.371.8161.1+17.5100%
Season away (7)85.484.3169.7+1.157%
Last 10 (10)87.275.9163.1+11.3100%
Last 5 (5)83.074.4157.4+8.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)76.879.7156.5-2.833%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.374.6153.9+4.767%
vs Weaker (9)80.268.0148.2+12.278%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-55
84
55
+29
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
48-58
48
58
-10
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
66-59
66
59
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
37-17
47-38
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
40-31
30-42
30-39
40-47
39-36
40-49
22-22
26-36
25-36
45-39
31-32
35-27
35-23
42-48
142.9Avg total
73.4Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)71.369.8141.1+1.550%
Season at home (10)73.264.1137.3+9.170%
Season away (6)68.279.3147.5-11.217%
Last 10 (10)73.469.5142.9+3.940%
Last 5 (5)68.069.6137.6-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)64.272.1136.4-7.938%
vs Similar ◀ (15)72.474.8147.2-2.440%
vs Weaker (7)76.165.6141.7+10.657%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +5.0+5.02nd half2nd half: +4.6+4.62nd half: -0.8-0.8
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +5.0+5.02nd half2nd half: +4.6+4.62nd half: -0.8-0.8
Murray StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H26/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H03/12
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A13/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H19/12
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A21/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A02/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H04/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A08/01
NCAA
77.1Avg total
41.9Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.134.270.3+1.963%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.632.671.2+6.176%-
Last 30 away (13)32.836.469.2-3.646%-
Last 10 (10)41.935.277.1+6.780%-
Last 5 (5)42.235.077.2+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.336.769.0-4.367%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)36.736.172.8+0.547%-
vs Weaker (9)37.729.467.1+8.289%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Michigan
#325
W
37-17
37
17
+20
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
D
22-22
22
22
+0
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
35-23
35
23
+12
H08/01
NCAA
62.8Avg total
33.9Scored
28.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.332.465.6+0.953%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.630.163.7+3.462%-
Last 30 away (14)32.934.967.9-2.043%-
Last 10 (10)33.928.962.8+5.060%-
Last 5 (5)30.429.860.2+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.832.164.9+0.662%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)32.332.765.0-0.347%-
vs Weaker (7)35.932.067.9+3.957%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Murray State wins
0
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26AEvansville79-69
04/01/26HBradley86-66
02/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)81-77
30/12/25HSouthern Illinois84-81
21/12/25AValparaiso85-79
19/12/25HDrake81-72
13/12/25AAkron115-100
06/12/25HBellarmine81-68
03/12/25HMorehead State84-52
26/11/25HGeorge Washington96-95
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26HIllinois State77-71
04/01/26HIllinois (Chi.)66-59
01/01/26ASouthern Illinois70-75
30/12/25ANorthern Iowa48-58
21/12/25HMurray State79-85
17/12/25ANorthwestern70-86
13/12/25HNC Wilmington70-73
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT
29/11/25HWestern Michigan84-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW82%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %82%100%57%
Points / game87.789.385.4
Allowed / game76.971.884.3
Point differential+10.8+17.5+1.1
Avg total164.6161.1169.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%60%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW50%
HomeWLLWW70%
AwayWLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16106
Win %50%70%17%
Points / game71.373.268.2
Allowed / game69.864.179.3
Point differential+1.5+9.1-11.2
Avg total141.1137.3147.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%30%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)67% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %6%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State1714382%87.776.9+10.8
2 Belmont1814478%81.971.0+10.9
3 Illinois State1612475%79.465.9+13.4
4 Northern Iowa1612475%69.658.6+11.1
5 Bradley1711665%78.471.3+7.1
6 Drake168850%76.571.1+5.4
7 Valparaiso168850%71.369.8+1.5
8 Southern Illinois178947%76.873.4+3.4
9 Indiana State178947%75.473.7+1.6
10 Illinois (Chi.)1661038%76.172.6+3.4
11 Evansville1851328%67.072.6-5.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State454792
Valparaiso364379
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