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Murray State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 03 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 78-50
38-25 40-25
Position#182
Record16-14
FormLWWLW
Points / game70.5
Allowed / game72.7
vs
Position#306
Record11-20
FormWLLLL
Points / game69.5
Allowed / game73.5
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Murray State v Valparaiso
30 Jan 2027
MURR v VALP
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
MURR92
VALP79
11 Jan 2025
MURR58
VALP47
24 Feb 2024
MURR80
VALP68
02 Mar 2023
MURR78
VALP50
26 Feb 2023
MURR77
VALP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#61
L
64-68
64
68
-4
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H28/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
83-82
83
82
+1
H02/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
56-99
56
99
-43
A04/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
68-92
68
92
-24
H08/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
48-83
48
83
-35
A11/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
76-75
76
75
+1
A16/02
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A22/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
W
77-76 OT
77
76
+1
H26/02
NCAA
1H
2H
30-34
34-34
37-35
37-36
49-43
34-39
28-40
28-59
39-55
29-37
21-30
27-53
40-35
36-40
27-24
47-34
34-46
35-38
33-32
32-33
147.7Avg total
68.9Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)70.572.7143.2-2.253%
Season at home (14)73.368.1141.4+5.279%
Season away (16)68.076.8144.8-8.831%
Last 10 (10)68.978.8147.7-9.950%
Last 5 (5)68.875.2144.0-6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)67.478.4145.8-11.031%
vs Similar ◀ (12)70.972.5143.4-1.658%
vs Weaker (5)77.458.4135.8+19.0100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#248
L
66-77
66
77
-11
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H29/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
67-76 OT
67
76
-9
A02/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
82-85 OT
82
85
-3
H05/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
62-84
62
84
-22
A09/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H12/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
62-66
62
66
-4
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
73-74
73
74
-1
A19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
66-76
66
76
-10
H23/02
NCAA
Murray State
#182
L
76-77 OT
76
77
-1
A26/02
NCAA
1H
2H
28-45
38-32
43-28
38-41
35-28
30-37
35-31
31-35
39-46
23-38
42-38
39-38
19-27
43-39
36-41
37-33
30-42
36-34
32-33
33-32
147.6Avg total
71.6Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)69.573.5143.0-3.935%
Season at home (17)71.669.9141.5+1.853%
Season away (14)67.077.8144.8-10.814%
Last 10 (10)71.676.0147.6-4.420%
Last 5 (5)71.673.8145.4-2.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)63.675.1138.7-11.57%
vs Similar ◀ (12)73.272.3145.6+0.958%
vs Weaker (3)84.366.0150.3+18.3100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.6-3.61st half: -2.0-2.02nd half2nd half: -6.4-6.42nd half: -1.1-1.1
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.6-3.61st half: -2.0-2.02nd half2nd half: -6.4-6.42nd half: -1.1-1.1
Murray StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#61
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H28/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H02/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
39-55
39
55
-16
H08/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
21-30
21
30
-9
A11/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A16/02
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
27-24
27
24
+3
H18/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A22/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H26/02
NCAA
71.2Avg total
33.8Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.933.766.6-0.847%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.933.168.0+1.764%-
Last 30 away (16)31.234.265.4-3.131%-
Last 10 (10)33.837.471.2-3.650%-
Last 5 (5)31.033.464.4-2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)32.136.268.3-4.231%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)32.334.366.7-2.050%-
vs Weaker (5)36.425.862.2+10.680%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#248
L
28-45
28
45
-17
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H29/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A02/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H05/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A09/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H12/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
19-27
19
27
-8
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H23/02
NCAA
Murray State
#182
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A26/02
NCAA
69.8Avg total
33.9Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.435.067.5-2.647%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.332.166.4+2.259%-
Last 30 away (13)30.038.868.8-8.831%-
Last 10 (10)33.935.969.8-2.040%-
Last 5 (5)31.836.268.0-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)29.136.865.9-7.720%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.234.268.4-0.167%-
vs Weaker (3)42.329.371.7+13.0100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Murray State wins
0
Valparaiso wins
DateGameScore
26/02/23Murray State v Valparaiso77-76 OT
04/12/22Valparaiso v Murray State70-77 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/23HValparaiso77-76 OT
22/02/23AMissouri State69-84
18/02/23HEvansville74-58
16/02/23AIllinois State76-75
11/02/23ABradley48-83
08/02/23HDrake68-92
04/02/23AIndiana State56-99
02/02/23HBelmont83-82
28/01/23HMissouri State74-71
25/01/23ASouthern Illinois64-68
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/23AMurray State76-77 OT
23/02/23HBradley66-76
19/02/23AIllinois (Chi.)73-74
15/02/23HSouthern Illinois62-66
12/02/23HIllinois State81-76
09/02/23AIndiana State62-84
05/02/23HDrake82-85 OT
02/02/23AMissouri State67-76 OT
29/01/23HEvansville81-69
26/01/23ANorthern Iowa66-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW53%
HomeWWLWW79%
AwayLLLWL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301416
Win %53%79%31%
Points / game70.573.368.0
Allowed / game72.768.176.8
Point differential-2.2+5.2-8.8
Avg total143.2141.4144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%21%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %10%14%6%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL35%
HomeWLWLL53%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %35%53%14%
Points / game69.571.667.0
Allowed / game73.569.977.8
Point differential-3.9+1.8-10.8
Avg total143.0141.5144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%29%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)57% (7)0% (3)
Overtime %16%18%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake3124777%75.664.8+10.9
2 Bradley3123874%71.561.3+10.2
3 Southern Illinois3122971%66.561.6+4.9
4 Belmont31211068%76.071.1+4.9
5 Indiana State32211166%79.268.6+10.7
6 Murray State30161453%70.572.7-2.2
7 Northern Iowa31141745%70.369.9+0.4
8 Illinois (Chi.)31121939%67.571.5-4.1
9 Valparaiso31112035%69.573.5-3.9
10 Illinois State32112134%66.570.5-4.0
11 Evansville3252716%62.476.0-13.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State384078
Valparaiso252550
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