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Valparaiso vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 56-74
23-33 33-41
Position#248
Record10-14
FormLLLLL
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game74.8
vs
Position#214
Record11-13
FormWLLLL
Points / game72.5
Allowed / game70.2
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Valparaiso v Murray State
21 Dec 2025
VALP79
MURR85
08 Feb 2025
VALP56
MURR74
04 Dec 2022
VALP70
MURR77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#107
W
80-73
80
73
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
98-95 OT
98
95
+3
H09/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A11/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
64-71
64
71
-7
A15/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
L
74-81
74
81
-7
H18/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
71-81
71
81
-10
A23/01
NCAA
Evansville
#319
L
68-78
68
78
-10
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
75-79
75
79
-4
H29/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
78-86
78
86
-8
A01/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
62-80
62
80
-18
A06/02
NCAA
1H
2H
43-36
37-37
45-40
41-46
21-26
26-32
30-40
34-31
38-38
36-43
29-43
42-38
26-44
42-34
34-29
41-50
38-45
40-41
31-39
31-41
149.9Avg total
71.7Scored
78.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)76.274.8151.0+1.542%
Season at home (13)82.971.2154.2+11.762%
Season away (11)68.479.0147.4-10.618%
Last 10 (10)71.778.2149.9-6.520%
Last 5 (5)70.880.8151.6-10.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)68.178.8146.9-10.815%
vs Similar ◀ (12)74.375.4149.8-1.142%
vs Weaker (4)84.572.5157.0+12.075%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#8
W
66-59
66
59
+7
A05/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
71-68
71
68
+3
A09/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H11/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
L
93-97 OT
93
97
-4
A16/01
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
61-74
61
74
-13
H18/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A23/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
77-95
77
95
-18
H25/01
NCAA
Evansville
#319
L
74-78
74
78
-4
A30/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
L
56-77
56
77
-21
A01/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
45-55
45
55
-10
H05/02
NCAA
1H
2H
26-26
40-33
33-27
38-41
26-21
32-26
36-33
40-43
35-41
26-33
34-32
40-32
37-55
40-40
25-20
49-58
19-43
37-34
18-32
27-23
138.9Avg total
67.5Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)72.570.2142.8+2.346%
Season at home (13)70.164.2134.2+5.954%
Season away (11)75.577.5152.9-2.036%
Last 10 (10)67.571.4138.9-3.940%
Last 5 (5)65.273.8139.0-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)67.171.8138.9-4.625%
vs Similar ◀ (14)69.174.2143.4-5.136%
vs Weaker (7)73.771.9145.6+1.957%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -4.5-4.51st half: -4.1-4.12nd half2nd half: -2.3-2.32nd half: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -4.5-4.51st half: -4.1-4.12nd half2nd half: -2.3-2.32nd half: +0.6+0.6
ValparaisoMurray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#107
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H09/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
21-26
21
26
-5
A11/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A15/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H18/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A23/01
NCAA
Evansville
#319
L
26-44
26
44
-18
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H29/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A01/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A06/02
NCAA
71.5Avg total
33.5Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.836.571.3-1.747%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.033.672.6+5.473%-
Last 30 away (15)30.639.369.9-8.720%-
Last 10 (10)33.538.071.5-4.530%-
Last 5 (5)31.640.071.6-8.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)33.138.271.3-5.238%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.235.469.7-1.250%-
vs Weaker (4)35.038.573.5-3.550%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#8
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A05/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
33-27
33
27
+6
A09/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
26-21
26
21
+5
H11/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A16/01
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H18/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A23/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
37-55
37
55
-18
H25/01
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
25-20
25
20
+5
A30/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
L
19-43
19
43
-24
A01/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
18-32
18
32
-14
H05/02
NCAA
61.9Avg total
28.9Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.534.666.1-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (16)31.233.364.5-2.131%-
Last 30 away (14)31.936.067.9-4.143%-
Last 10 (10)28.933.061.9-4.150%-
Last 5 (5)26.636.463.0-9.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)29.938.468.2-8.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)31.534.265.7-2.743%-
vs Weaker (7)30.333.163.4-2.957%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Valparaiso wins
5
Murray State wins
DateGameScore
11/01/25Murray State v Valparaiso58-47
24/02/24Murray State v Valparaiso80-68
03/03/23Murray State v Valparaiso78-50
26/02/23Murray State v Valparaiso77-76 OT
04/12/22Valparaiso v Murray State70-77 OT
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/02/25AIndiana State62-80
01/02/25AIllinois State78-86
29/01/25HSouthern Illinois75-79
25/01/25HEvansville68-78
23/01/25ADrake71-81
18/01/25HIllinois (Chi.)74-81
15/01/25ABelmont64-71
11/01/25AMurray State47-58
09/01/25HIndiana State98-95 OT
04/01/25HNorthern Iowa80-73
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/02/25HDrake45-55
01/02/25AMissouri State56-77
30/01/25AEvansville74-78
25/01/25HBelmont77-95
23/01/25ASouthern Illinois74-64
18/01/25HBradley61-74
16/01/25AIllinois (Chi.)93-97 OT
11/01/25HValparaiso58-47
09/01/25ANorthern Iowa71-68
05/01/25ADrake66-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL42%
HomeWWLLL62%
AwayLLLLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %42%62%18%
Points / game76.282.968.4
Allowed / game74.871.279.0
Point differential+1.5+11.7-10.6
Avg total151.0154.2147.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%38%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)67% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %8%8%9%
Murray State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL46%
HomeLWLLL54%
AwayWLWLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %46%54%36%
Points / game72.570.175.5
Allowed / game70.264.277.5
Point differential+2.3+5.9-2.0
Avg total142.8134.2152.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%38%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)67% (3)20% (5)
Overtime %12%0%27%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake2321291%70.657.5+13.1
2 Bradley2418675%79.269.4+9.8
3 Belmont2416867%81.378.8+2.6
4 Northern Iowa2415962%74.767.4+7.3
5 Illinois State2415962%77.072.0+5.0
6 Illinois (Chi.)25151060%80.675.0+5.5
7 Indiana State24121250%80.078.8+1.2
8 Southern Illinois25121348%73.273.3-0.1
9 Murray State24111346%72.570.2+2.3
10 Valparaiso24101442%76.274.8+1.5
11 Evansville2491538%66.070.2-4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso233356
Murray State334174
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