PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

North Carolina vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 31 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 79-66
40-34 39-32
Position#45
Record12-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game63.5
North Carolina 🏆
USA
vs
Florida State
USA
Position#167
Record7-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game78.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · North Carolina v Florida State
30 Dec 2025
NORT79
FLOR66
14 Mar 2024
NORT92
FLOR67
02 Dec 2023
NORT78
FLOR70
12 Feb 2022
NORT94
FLOR74
27 Feb 2021
NORT78
FLOR70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
97-53
97
53
+44
H15/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H19/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
85-70
85
70
+15
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
58-74
58
74
-16
A27/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
67-64
67
64
+3
A03/12
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
81-61
81
61
+20
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H23/12
NCAA
1H
2H
39-24
58-29
38-31
35-30
35-33
50-37
28-33
30-41
31-31
36-33
44-39
37-22
37-28
43-34
38-30
39-28
34-31
37-39
49-26
50-25
141.2Avg total
78.8Scored
62.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)81.463.5144.9+17.892%
Season at home (10)86.261.8148.0+24.4100%
Season away (3)65.369.3134.7-4.067%
Last 10 (10)78.862.4141.2+16.490%
Last 5 (5)81.660.4142.0+21.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.882.0150.8-13.20%
vs Similar (13)75.066.6141.6+8.477%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)89.668.2157.8+21.4100%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Martin
#72
W
87-73
87
73
+14
H19/11
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
98-72
98
72
+26
H21/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
89-59
89
59
+30
H26/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
59-95
59
95
-36
H28/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
73-107
73
107
-34
H03/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
95-103
95
103
-8
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
69-97
69
97
-28
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
96-49
96
49
+47
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
87-63
87
63
+24
H23/12
NCAA
1H
2H
43-40
44-33
40-29
58-43
35-24
54-35
24-52
35-43
30-49
43-58
33-41
34-41
47-43
48-60
31-42
38-55
54-17
42-32
43-21
44-42
162.0Avg total
82.0Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)85.078.3163.3+6.754%
Season at home (10)89.376.1165.4+13.270%
Season away (3)70.785.7156.3-15.00%
Last 10 (10)82.080.0162.0+2.050%
Last 5 (5)82.878.8161.6+4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)70.285.3155.5-15.118%
vs Similar (11)77.975.3153.2+2.655%
vs Weaker (8)84.066.6150.6+17.462%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +9.7+9.72nd half: -0.2-0.2
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +6.7+6.71st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +9.7+9.72nd half: -0.2-0.2
North CarolinaFlorida State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/11
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H19/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A27/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A03/12
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H23/12
NCAA
67.9Avg total
37.3Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.334.173.4+5.173%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.131.974.0+10.288%-
Last 30 away (13)35.537.172.6-1.554%-
Last 10 (10)37.330.667.9+6.780%-
Last 5 (5)40.430.871.2+9.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
vs Similar (13)36.832.269.0+4.569%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)44.332.476.7+11.9100%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Martin
#72
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H19/11
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H21/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H26/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
24-52
24
52
-28
H28/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
30-49
30
49
-19
H03/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
54-17
54
17
+37
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H23/12
NCAA
73.8Avg total
38.0Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.135.169.2-1.050%-
Last 30 at home (19)35.833.569.4+2.363%-
Last 30 away (11)31.137.868.9-6.727%-
Last 10 (10)38.035.873.8+2.260%-
Last 5 (5)41.632.874.4+8.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)32.342.274.5-9.927%-
vs Similar (11)32.931.164.0+1.864%-
vs Weaker (8)38.230.969.1+7.462%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
North Carolina wins
3
Florida State wins
DateGameScore
25/02/25Florida State v North Carolina85-96
14/03/24North Carolina v Florida State92-67
27/01/24Florida State v North Carolina68-75
02/12/23North Carolina v Florida State78-70
28/02/23Florida State v North Carolina66-77
12/02/22North Carolina v Florida State94-74
13/03/21Florida State v North Carolina69-66
27/02/21North Carolina v Florida State78-70
16/01/21Florida State v North Carolina82-75
04/02/20Florida State v North Carolina65-59
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/25HEast Carolina99-51
20/12/25AOhio State71-70
17/12/25HEast Tennessee St77-58
13/12/25HUSC Upstate80-62
07/12/25HGeorgetown81-61
03/12/25AKentucky67-64
27/11/25AMichigan State58-74
25/11/25HSt. Bonaventure85-70
19/11/25HNavy73-61
15/11/25HN. Carolina Central97-53
Florida Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/25HJacksonville Dolphins87-63
20/12/25HMiss. Valley St.96-49
17/12/25ADayton69-97
13/12/25HUMass95-103
07/12/25AHouston67-82
03/12/25HGeorgia73-107
28/11/25HTexas A&M59-95
26/11/25HCSU Bakersfield89-59
21/11/25HGeorgia Southern98-72
19/11/25HUT Martin87-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW92%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %92%100%67%
Points / game81.486.265.3
Allowed / game63.561.869.3
Point differential+17.8+24.4-4.0
Avg total144.9148.0134.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+77%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW54%
HomeLLLWW70%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %54%70%0%
Points / game85.089.370.7
Allowed / game78.376.185.7
Point differential+6.7+13.2-15.0
Avg total163.3165.4156.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%70%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina1312192%81.463.5+17.8
2 California1312192%83.166.7+16.4
3 Duke1211192%87.262.6+24.6
4 Miami (FL)1311285%89.567.7+21.8
5 Virginia1311285%84.669.5+15.1
6 SMU Mustangs1311285%91.176.5+14.6
7 Virginia Tech1311285%83.172.6+10.5
8 Stanford1311285%81.872.3+9.5
9 Louisville1210283%91.668.2+23.4
10 Clemson1310377%79.765.8+13.8
11 NC State139469%88.372.2+16.2
12 Syracuse139469%74.664.8+9.8
13 Wake Forest139469%83.974.3+9.6
14 Notre Dame139469%76.768.4+8.3
15 Georgia Tech139469%76.570.3+6.2
16 Florida State137654%85.078.3+6.7
17 Pittsburgh137654%74.067.8+6.2
18 Boston College137654%70.666.7+3.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina403979
Florida State343266
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.