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Olympiacos vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 20 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:15
Projected 87-84
Projected total 170.3
Scheduled
Position#2
Record8-3
FormWWLWW
Points / game88.5
Allowed / game80.7
Vs
60%
40%
■ OLY 60%■ MAD 40%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.1/10
Below normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
EuropeEuroleagueRound 13· Peace and Friendship Stadium
European cup2026
Meetings · Olympiacos v Real Madrid
20 Nov 2026
OLY v MAD
upcoming
24 May 2026
OLY92
MAD85
07 Apr 2026
OLY102
MAD88
25 Apr 2025
OLY77
MAD71
23 Apr 2025
OLY84
MAD72
29 Oct 2024
OLY79
MAD69
05 Dec 2023
OLY71
MAD77
21 May 2023
OLY78
MAD79
20 Jan 2023
OLY73
MAD60
08 Oct 2021
OLY74
MAD68
18 Dec 2020
OLY82
MAD86
22 Nov 2018
OLY88
MAD83
08 Dec 2017
OLY92
MAD83
24 Mar 2017
OLY73
MAD79
25 Mar 2016
OLY99
MAD84
23 Apr 2014
OLY71
MAD62
21 Apr 2014
OLY78
MAD76
12 May 2013
OLY100
MAD88
18 Oct 2010
OLY82
MAD66
26 Mar 2009
OLY79
MAD73
24 Mar 2009
OLY88
MAD79
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Olympiacos host Real Madrid in the EuroLeague. Pythia makes Olympiacos the favourite at 60% and projects 87-84, about 170 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Olympiacos are 8-3 this season (88.5 scored, 80.7 allowed a game), form WWLWW; Real Madrid are 7-4 this season (98.5 scored, 90.1 allowed a game), form WWLWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Olympiacos win
60.0%fair 1.67
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
40.0%fair 2.50
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:36 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OlympiacosLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOlympiacos
Date
Competition
Barcelona
#4
W
105-100 OT
105
100
+5
101avg 92
A16/10
Euroleague
Vikos
#13
W
79-68
79
68
+11
76avg 92
A18/10
Basket League
Fenerbahce
#7
L
61-64
61
64
-3
58avg 92
H23/10
Euroleague
Promitheas
#14
W
85-45
85
45
+40
86avg 92
A25/10
Basket League
Besiktas
#13
W
81-73
81
73
+8
83avg 92
A28/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 92
H30/10
Euroleague
Peristeri
#7
W
91-62
91
62
+29
89avg 92
H01/11
Basket League
Crvena zvezda
#6
L
57-62
57
62
-5
no box
H06/11
Euroleague
Maroussi
#11
W
83-81
83
81
+2
no box
A08/11
Basket League
Dubai
#9
W
101-72
101
72
+29
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-30
31-17
20-19
15-26
21-23
18-13
25-15
15-17
20-8
14-16
15-21
12-19
16-12
25-17
21-8
23-8
25-23
17-13
19-22
20-15
25-19
19-25
25-17
15-17
25-18
23-12
28-12
15-20
11-19
11-21
19-11
16-11
24-20
17-21
22-24
20-16
25-18
32-25
31-13
13-16
153.2Avg total
82.7Scored
70.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)88.580.7169.2+7.773%
Season at home (5)78.468.4146.8+10.060%
Season away (6)96.891.0187.8+5.883%
Last 10 (10)82.770.5153.2+12.280%
Last 5 (5)83.271.0154.2+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)78.077.0155.0+1.050%
vs Weaker (26)91.075.8166.8+15.288%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 90
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 90
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 90
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 90
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 90
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 90
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 90
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Olympiacos) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%10%13%0%1251%1301%1353%1405%1456%1509%15511%16012%16513%17011%1759%1807%1855%1903%1952%2001%2051%2100%215
1%1303%1406%15011%16013%1709%1805%1902%2001%210
Pythia expects about 170 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (13%).
Over/Under 167
Over 167
57.3%
Under 167
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 172
Over 172
44.9%
Under 172
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 177
Over 177
33.1%
Under 177
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Olympiacos total 83.5
Over 83.5
61.6%
Under 83.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiacos total 87.5
Over 87.5
46.2%
Under 87.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiacos total 91.5
Over 91.5
31.5%
Under 91.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid total 80.5
Over 80.5
62.1%
Under 80.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid total 84.5
Over 84.5
46.5%
Under 84.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid total 88.5
Over 88.5
31.6%
Under 88.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-301%-271%-242%-213%-184%-156%-127%-99%-69%-36%+010%+310%+68%+97%+125%+154%+183%+212%+241%+271%+301%+33
1%-272%-214%-157%-99%-310%+38%+95%+153%+211%+271%+33
Margin from Olympiacos's side (positive = Olympiacos win). Pythia's expected margin is +2.8; Olympiacos win by 1+ in 52% of simulations.
Spread Olympiacos -3
OLY -3
51.0%
MAD +3
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
OLY
No market prices yet.
MAD
No market prices yet.
Spread Olympiacos 0
OLY 0
60.0%
MAD 0
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
OLY
No market prices yet.
MAD
No market prices yet.
Spread Olympiacos +3
OLY +3
68.8%
MAD -3
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
OLY
No market prices yet.
MAD
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +6.3+6.3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +5.9+5.9
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +6.3+6.3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +5.9+5.9
OlympiacosReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OlympiacosLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Barcelona
#4
W
57-47
57
47
+10
A16/10
Euroleague
Vikos
#13
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A18/10
Basket League
Fenerbahce
#7
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H23/10
Euroleague
Promitheas
#14
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A25/10
Basket League
Besiktas
#13
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A28/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#19
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H30/10
Euroleague
Peristeri
#7
W
48-30
48
30
+18
H01/11
Basket League
Crvena zvezda
#6
L
22-40
22
40
-18
H06/11
Euroleague
Maroussi
#11
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A08/11
Basket League
Dubai
#9
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H12/11
Euroleague
79.5Avg total
42.5Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.337.582.7+7.880%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.635.781.3+9.987%-
Last 30 away (15)44.939.384.2+5.773%-
Last 10 (10)42.537.079.5+5.570%-
Last 5 (5)42.439.682.0+2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)34.041.875.8-7.850%-
vs Weaker (26)47.036.883.8+10.285%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Olympiacos) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Olympiacostheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Olympiacos: 87.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.822.3
59.0%
55.2%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.98.8
34.0%
35.7%26.4
🏀 Free throws21.916.4
74.9%
77.1%16.4
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Olympiacos
WWLWWWWLWW
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#2
League position
#5
+16.1
Net rating
+23.0
101.9
Offensive rating
114.6
85.8
Defensive rating
91.6
55.7%
Effective FG%
60.2%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
15.0%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.33
34.0%
3-point %
41.9%
66.9%
Assist %
62.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence101.9 · 114.6Defence85.8 · 91.6Shooting55.7% · 60.2%3-point %34.0% · 41.9%Ball care15.0% · 12.7%Free throws0.34 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ Olympiacos   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Olympiacos wins
3
Real Madrid wins
Olympiacoslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HDubai101-72
08/11/26AMaroussi83-81
06/11/26HCrvena zvezda57-62
01/11/26HPeristeri91-62
30/10/26HOlimpia Milano84-78
28/10/26ABesiktas81-73
25/10/26APromitheas85-45
23/10/26HFenerbahce61-64
18/10/26AVikos79-68
16/10/26ABarcelona105-100 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Olympiacos
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW73%
HomeWLWLW60%
AwayWLWWW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %73%60%83%
Points / game88.578.496.8
Allowed / game80.768.491.0
Point differential+7.7+10.0+5.8
Avg total169.2146.8187.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%40%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)0% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %18%0%33%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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