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Ovarense vs Esgueira Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 05 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Scheduled
Position#3
Record6-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game84.4
Allowed / game76.9
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.3/10
Below normal
5.7/10
Above normal
Position#12
Record0-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game97.7
PortugalLPBRound 9· Arena de Ovar
Other2026-27
Meetings · Ovarense v Esgueira
05 Dec 2026
OVAR v ESGU
upcoming
04 Oct 2025
OVAR81
ESGU75
01 Mar 2025
OVAR94
ESGU68
04 Jan 2025
OVAR81
ESGU89
25 Nov 2023
OVAR75
ESGU71
15 Oct 2022
OVAR94
ESGU84
25 Apr 2021
OVAR73
ESGU63
23 Apr 2021
OVAR75
ESGU82
13 Dec 2020
OVAR71
ESGU99
27 Mar 2020
OVAR v ESGU
upcoming
10 Nov 2018
OVAR77
ESGU85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ovarense win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Esgueira win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OvarensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOvarense
Date
Competition
Oliveirense
#5
W
93-79
93
79
+14
90avg 72
H09/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
72-90
72
90
-18
56avg 72
A13/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
65-69
65
69
-4
48avg 72
H16/05
LPB
Braga
#6
W
96-83
96
83
+13
47avg 72
H03/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
87-71
87
71
+16
81avg 72
A10/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
78-69
78
69
+9
63avg 72
H17/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
70-71
70
71
-1
64avg 72
A24/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
78-76
78
76
+2
56avg 72
H31/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
W
93-87
93
87
+6
no box
A07/11
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
W
89-81
89
81
+8
no box
H14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-18
21-19
18-15
29-27
23-27
24-25
13-19
12-19
16-10
18-17
18-18
13-24
26-19
26-9
23-20
21-35
17-21
20-17
30-9
20-24
17-12
20-17
25-23
16-17
24-16
12-22
16-14
18-19
23-12
15-24
17-20
23-20
16-26
34-31
26-19
17-11
14-20
23-24
24-26
28-11
159.7Avg total
82.1Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)84.476.9161.3+7.686%
Season at home (4)85.277.2162.5+8.0100%
Season away (3)83.376.3159.7+7.067%
Last 10 (10)82.177.6159.7+4.570%
Last 5 (5)81.676.8158.4+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)71.880.3152.2-8.517%
vs Similar (8)82.279.0161.2+3.262%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)85.377.4162.8+7.981%
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EsgueiraPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEsgueira
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
W
86-85
86
85
+1
74avg 67
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
67-109
67
109
-42
58avg 67
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
73-85
73
85
-12
66avg 67
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
28avg 67
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
60-88
60
88
-28
38avg 67
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
91-95
91
95
-4
80avg 67
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
80-104
80
104
-24
40avg 67
A24/10
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
L
93-104
93
104
-11
75avg 67
H31/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
78-112
78
112
-34
no box
A07/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
L
96-97 OT
96
97
-1
no box
A14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
16-23
26-20
23-15
21-27
20-30
9-25
17-27
18-25
18-23
21-19
16-18
25-16
7-25
20-17
12-26
17-20
8-23
18-23
17-22
27-25
19-24
14-22
31-24
24-23
8-32
20-24
28-25
24-23
29-26
13-34
27-21
20-23
14-25
28-27
16-37
21-41
25-13
14-15
27-18
175.1Avg total
78.8Scored
96.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.397.7178.0-17.40%
Season at home (3)82.794.3177.0-11.70%
Season away (4)78.5100.2178.8-21.80%
Last 10 (10)78.896.3175.1-17.510%
Last 5 (5)87.6102.4190.0-14.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)80.192.6172.7-12.525%
vs Similar (6)88.392.8181.2-4.533%
vs Weaker (4)92.095.2187.2-3.250%
This opponent (Ovarense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -8.0-8.0Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -1.9-1.9
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -8.0-8.0Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -1.9-1.9
OvarenseEsgueira
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OvarenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oliveirense
#5
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H09/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
47-52
47
52
-5
A13/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H16/05
LPB
Braga
#6
W
52-28
52
28
+24
H03/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A10/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H17/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A24/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H31/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A07/11
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H14/11
LPB
80.0Avg total
41.4Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.240.581.7+0.740%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.738.377.9+1.453%-
Last 30 away (15)42.842.785.5+0.127%-
Last 10 (10)41.438.680.0+2.850%-
Last 5 (5)39.640.880.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)35.541.577.0-6.017%-
vs Similar (8)43.439.082.4+4.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)42.340.983.2+1.438%-
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EsgueiraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
41-57
41
57
-16
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
25-43
25
43
-18
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
32-55
32
55
-23
A24/10
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H31/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A07/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A14/11
LPB
87.6Avg total
38.2Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.047.687.6-7.617%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.347.289.5-4.933%-
Last 30 away (15)37.748.185.7-10.40%-
Last 10 (10)38.249.487.6-11.210%-
Last 5 (5)42.251.093.2-8.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)39.448.287.6-8.915%-
vs Similar (6)40.846.787.5-5.817%-
vs Weaker (4)42.046.288.2-4.225%-
This opponent (Ovarense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Ovarensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ovarense: 71.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.519.3
48.9%
51.1%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.76.8
27.5%
31.9%20.4
🏀 Free throws16.412.0
73.2%
71.1%12.0
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Esgueiratheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Esgueira: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.716.0
47.5%
51.1%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.59.8
32.1%
31.9%29.4
🏀 Free throws19.413.1
67.5%
71.1%13.1
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Ovarense
WWWLWWWLLW
Esgueira
LLLLLLLLLW
#3
League position
#12
-5.3
Net rating
-21.3
83.9
Offensive rating
82.8
89.2
Defensive rating
104.1
46.0%
Effective FG%
47.8%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
56.8%
14.8%
Turnover %
16.8%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.30
27.5%
3-point %
32.1%
64.0%
Assist %
57.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence83.9 · 82.8Defence89.2 · 104.1Shooting46.0% · 47.8%3-point %27.5% · 32.1%Ball care14.8% · 16.8%Free throws0.26 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 10%
■ Ovarense   ■ Esgueira
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Ovarense wins
2
Esgueira wins
DateGameScore
24/01/26Esgueira v Ovarense76-79
04/10/25Ovarense v Esgueira81-75
26/04/25Esgueira v Ovarense84-85
01/03/25Ovarense v Esgueira94-68
19/01/25Esgueira v Ovarense81-92
04/01/25Ovarense v Esgueira81-89 OT
06/04/24Esgueira v Ovarense85-82
30/03/24Esgueira v Ovarense81-82
25/11/23Ovarense v Esgueira75-71
04/01/23Esgueira v Ovarense70-87
Ovarenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCA Queluz89-81
07/11/26AOliveirense93-87
31/10/26HFC Porto78-76
24/10/26ASporting CP70-71
17/10/26HCD Povoa78-69
10/10/26AVitoria87-71
03/10/26HBraga96-83
16/05/26HOliveirense65-69
13/05/26AOliveirense72-90
09/05/26HOliveirense93-79
Esgueiralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APortimonense96-97 OT
07/11/26ABenfica78-112
31/10/26HCA Queluz93-104
24/10/26AOliveirense80-104
16/10/26HFC Porto91-95
10/10/26ASporting CP60-88
03/10/26HCD Povoa64-84
14/05/26HSporting CP73-85
10/05/26ASporting CP67-109
25/04/26AFC Porto86-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ovarense
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game84.485.283.3
Allowed / game76.977.276.3
Point differential+7.6+8.0+7.0
Avg total161.3162.5159.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Esgueira
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game80.382.778.5
Allowed / game97.794.3100.2
Point differential-17.4-11.7-21.8
Avg total178.0177.0178.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %14%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica76186%88.373.6+14.7
2 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
3 Ovarense76186%84.476.9+7.6
4 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
5 Sporting CP74357%83.674.6+9.0
6 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
7 CD Povoa74357%75.075.3-0.3
8 CA Queluz63350%87.891.7-3.8
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira71614%82.786.4-3.7
11 Portimonense71614%78.789.0-10.3
12 Esgueira7070%80.397.7-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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