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PAOK vs Aris Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 15:30
Projected 82-82
Projected total 164.9
Scheduled
Position#2
Record6-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game70.7
PAOK
Greece
Vs
50%
50%
■ PAK 50%■ ARI 50%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
2.8/10
🧊 Cold
4.6/10
Around normal
Aris
Greece
Position#4
Record5-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game84.5
Allowed / game71.5
GreeceBasket LeagueRound 8· P.A.O.K. Sports Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · PAOK v Aris
21 Nov 2026
PAK v ARI
upcoming
15 Apr 2026
PAK88
ARI77
01 Mar 2025
PAK75
ARI63
15 Feb 2024
PAK74
ARI76
18 Nov 2023
PAK82
ARI76
15 Oct 2022
PAK88
ARI66
11 Dec 2021
PAK96
ARI64
13 Dec 2020
PAK75
ARI64
05 Jan 2020
PAK101
ARI84
25 Nov 2018
PAK95
ARI79
11 Nov 2017
PAK63
ARI57
03 May 2017
PAK75
ARI84
04 Feb 2017
PAK62
ARI58
13 Jun 2015
PAK62
ARI51
07 Jun 2015
PAK67
ARI60
07 Feb 2015
PAK77
ARI78
25 Jan 2014
PAK56
ARI49
09 Oct 2013
PAK63
ARI71
16 Mar 2013
PAK84
ARI72
28 Dec 2011
PAK92
ARI87
08 Jun 2011
PAK63
ARI56
01 Jun 2011
PAK59
ARI67
26 May 2011
PAK76
ARI74
05 Feb 2011
PAK79
ARI74
31 Oct 2009
PAK83
ARI48
19 Feb 2009
PAK50
ARI57
Sections
Game preview & prediction
PAOK host Aris in the Greek Basket League. Pythia makes PAOK the favourite at 50% and projects 82-82, about 165 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. PAOK are 6-0 this season (80.5 scored, 70.7 allowed a game), form LWWWW; Aris are 5-1 this season (84.5 scored, 71.5 allowed a game), form WWLWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

PAOK win
50.3%fair 1.99
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Aris win
49.7%fair 2.01
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PAOKGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPAOK
Date
Competition
Lefkadas
#9
W
86-73
86
73
+13
77avg 79
H10/10
Basket League
Lietkabelis
#21
L
86-95
86
95
-9
76avg 79
A13/10
Eurocup
Kolossos Rhodes
#6
W
88-84
88
84
+4
88avg 79
A17/10
Basket League
Ulm
#15
W
87-78
87
78
+9
78avg 79
H21/10
Eurocup
AEK Athens
#10
W
65-62
65
62
+3
53avg 79
H24/10
Basket League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#3
L
81-84
81
84
-3
77avg 79
A27/10
Eurocup
Iraklis
#8
W
63-53
63
53
+10
58avg 79
A31/10
Basket League
BC Roma
#18
W
113-111
113
111
+2
no box
H03/11
Eurocup
Vikos
#13
W
93-67
93
67
+26
no box
H07/11
Basket League
Balkan
#32
W
79-56
79
56
+23
no box
A10/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-18
20-13
22-23
22-19
22-23
18-27
24-24
22-21
19-21
28-26
15-19
26-18
19-20
27-22
13-13
28-23
20-15
5-14
22-15
18-18
23-26
17-26
18-11
23-21
19-17
15-14
13-11
16-11
29-22
32-38
31-26
21-25
30-15
24-18
20-11
19-23
19-12
34-20
19-9
7-15
160.4Avg total
84.1Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)80.570.7151.2+9.8100%
Season at home (3)81.367.3148.7+14.0100%
Season away (3)79.774.0153.7+5.7100%
Last 10 (10)84.176.3160.4+7.880%
Last 5 (5)85.874.2160.0+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)84.989.1174.0-4.329%
vs Similar ◀ (7)85.778.0163.7+7.771%
vs Weaker (16)87.177.5164.6+9.694%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArisGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAris
Date
Competition
AEK Athens
#10
W
88-58
88
58
+30
84avg 81
H10/10
Basket League
Tortona
#17
W
88-68
88
68
+20
85avg 81
H14/10
Eurocup
Maroussi
#11
W
74-57
74
57
+17
65avg 81
H17/10
Basket League
Rostock
#28
W
110-79
110
79
+31
109avg 81
A20/10
Eurocup
Mykonos
#12
W
88-72
88
72
+16
87avg 81
A24/10
Basket League
Cedevita Olimpija
#25
W
78-73
78
73
+5
74avg 81
H28/10
Eurocup
Panathinaikos
#3
W
101-91
101
91
+10
96avg 81
H01/11
Basket League
Hapoel Jerusalem
#1
L
73-84
73
84
-11
no box
A04/11
Eurocup
Lefkadas
#9
W
88-77
88
77
+11
no box
A07/11
Basket League
Rigas Zelli
#20
W
105-81
105
81
+24
no box
H11/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-10
19-11
22-14
24-23
31-21
14-23
17-11
26-13
15-13
22-15
23-15
14-14
29-20
29-17
25-14
27-28
28-21
21-15
15-20
24-16
21-19
17-20
19-18
21-16
18-15
28-29
33-24
22-23
19-18
21-17
16-22
17-27
32-23
19-12
17-19
20-23
28-14
35-18
25-20
17-29
163.3Avg total
89.3Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)84.571.5156.0+13.083%
Season at home (3)87.768.7156.3+19.0100%
Season away (3)81.374.3155.7+7.067%
Last 10 (10)89.374.0163.3+15.390%
Last 5 (5)89.081.2170.2+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)88.594.8183.2-6.225%
vs Similar ◀ (9)84.683.7168.2+0.944%
vs Weaker (17)88.573.6162.1+14.894%
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1201%1252%1303%1355%1407%1459%15011%15512%16012%16510%1709%1757%1805%1853%1902%1951%2001%2050%210
1%1253%1357%14511%15512%1659%1755%1852%1951%205
Pythia expects about 165 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%).
Over/Under 156.5
Over 156.5
68.4%
Under 156.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 161.5
Over 161.5
57.2%
Under 161.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
45.3%
Under 166.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

PAOK total 78.5
Over 78.5
64.4%
Under 78.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK total 82.5
Over 82.5
49.7%
Under 82.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK total 86.5
Over 86.5
35.1%
Under 86.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris total 75
Over 75
76.5%
Under 75
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris total 79
Over 79
62.8%
Under 79
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris total 83
Over 83
47.3%
Under 83
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-331%-301%-272%-243%-214%-185%-156%-128%-910%-69%-36%+010%+39%+67%+96%+125%+153%+182%+211%+241%+271%+30
0%-331%-273%-215%-158%-99%-310%+37%+95%+152%+211%+27
Margin from PAOK's side (positive = PAOK win). Pythia's expected margin is +0.1; PAOK win by 1+ in 44% of simulations.
Spread PAOK -3
PAK -3
41.6%
ARI +3
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
PAK
No market prices yet.
ARI
No market prices yet.
Spread PAOK 0
PAK 0
50.3%
ARI 0
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
PAK
No market prices yet.
ARI
No market prices yet.
Spread PAOK +3
PAK +3
59.0%
ARI -3
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
PAK
No market prices yet.
ARI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: +7.0+7.0Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +0.0+0.0
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: +7.0+7.0Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +0.0+0.0
PAOKAris
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PAOKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lefkadas
#9
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H10/10
Basket League
Lietkabelis
#21
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A13/10
Eurocup
Kolossos Rhodes
#6
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A17/10
Basket League
Ulm
#15
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H21/10
Eurocup
AEK Athens
#10
L
25-29
25
29
-4
H24/10
Basket League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#3
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A27/10
Eurocup
Iraklis
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A31/10
Basket League
BC Roma
#18
W
61-60
61
60
+1
H03/11
Eurocup
Vikos
#13
W
54-33
54
33
+21
H07/11
Basket League
Balkan
#32
W
53-32
53
32
+21
A10/11
Eurocup
84.9Avg total
44.2Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.540.684.1+2.960%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.640.487.0+6.175%-
Last 30 away (14)40.040.880.8-0.843%-
Last 10 (10)44.240.784.9+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)48.441.690.0+6.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)42.144.186.3-2.043%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)42.039.381.3+2.771%-
vs Weaker (16)44.839.684.4+5.162%-
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AEK Athens
#10
W
42-21
42
21
+21
H10/10
Basket League
Tortona
#17
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H14/10
Eurocup
Maroussi
#11
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H17/10
Basket League
Rostock
#28
W
58-37
58
37
+21
A20/10
Eurocup
Mykonos
#12
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A24/10
Basket League
Cedevita Olimpija
#25
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H28/10
Eurocup
Panathinaikos
#3
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H01/11
Basket League
Hapoel Jerusalem
#1
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A04/11
Eurocup
Lefkadas
#9
W
51-35
51
35
+16
A07/11
Basket League
Rigas Zelli
#20
W
63-32
63
32
+31
H11/11
Eurocup
82.0Avg total
46.9Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.840.084.8+4.857%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.836.180.9+8.779%-
Last 30 away (16)44.843.488.2+1.438%-
Last 10 (10)46.935.182.0+11.890%-
Last 5 (5)47.637.084.6+10.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)41.844.085.8-2.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.443.787.1-0.256%-
vs Weaker (17)46.237.183.4+9.165%-
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
PAOKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

PAOK: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.818.5
58.2%
50.6%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.88.5
31.7%
34.4%25.5
🏀 Free throws24.918.5
74.3%
71.8%18.5
They take 58.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aris: 87.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.618.7
51.1%
50.6%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.910.2
36.6%
34.4%30.6
🏀 Free throws24.719.5
78.9%
71.8%19.5
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
PAOK
WWWWLWWWLW
Aris
WWLWWWWWWW
#2
League position
#4
+5.7
Net rating
+16.5
100.7
Offensive rating
96.8
94.9
Defensive rating
80.3
53.3%
Effective FG%
52.7%
54.8%
Opp. effective FG%
44.1%
15.8%
Turnover %
15.6%
0.42
Free-throw rate
0.38
31.7%
3-point %
36.6%
55.6%
Assist %
71.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence100.7 · 96.8Defence94.9 · 80.3Shooting53.3% · 52.7%3-point %31.7% · 36.6%Ball care15.8% · 15.6%Free throws0.42 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ PAOK   ■ Aris
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
PAOK wins
5
Aris wins
DateGameScore
15/04/26PAOK v Aris88-77
01/11/25Aris v PAOK73-78
01/03/25PAOK v Aris75-63
01/12/24Aris v PAOK88-82
15/02/24PAOK v Aris74-76
11/02/24Aris v PAOK77-63
18/11/23PAOK v Aris82-76
22/01/23Aris v PAOK77-70
15/10/22PAOK v Aris88-66
20/04/22Aris v PAOK77-76
PAOKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26ABalkan79-56
07/11/26HVikos93-67
03/11/26HBC Roma113-111
31/10/26AIraklis63-53
27/10/26ABahcesehir Kol.81-84
24/10/26HAEK Athens65-62
21/10/26HUlm87-78
17/10/26AKolossos Rhodes88-84
13/10/26ALietkabelis86-95
10/10/26HLefkadas86-73
Arislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HRigas Zelli105-81
07/11/26ALefkadas88-77
04/11/26AHapoel Jerusalem73-84
01/11/26HPanathinaikos101-91
28/10/26HCedevita Olimpija78-73
24/10/26AMykonos88-72
20/10/26ARostock110-79
17/10/26HMaroussi74-57
14/10/26HTortona88-68
10/10/26HAEK Athens88-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

PAOK
Basket League 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game80.581.379.7
Allowed / game70.767.374.0
Point differential+9.8+14.0+5.7
Avg total151.2148.7153.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Aris
Basket League 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%100%67%
Points / game84.587.781.3
Allowed / game71.568.774.3
Point differential+13.0+19.0+7.0
Avg total156.0156.3155.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+83%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olympiacos660100%85.867.8+18.0
2 PAOK660100%80.570.7+9.8
3 Panathinaikos65183%89.074.5+14.5
4 Aris65183%84.571.5+13.0
5 AS Karditsas64267%74.571.5+3.0
6 Kolossos Rhodes63350%80.781.8-1.2
7 Peristeri63350%80.587.5-7.0
8 Iraklis62433%77.073.8+3.2
9 Lefkadas62433%78.581.7-3.2
10 AEK Athens62433%75.580.0-4.5
11 Maroussi61517%75.881.5-5.7
12 Mykonos61517%73.584.5-11.0
13 Vikos61517%74.787.3-12.7
14 Promitheas61517%70.286.5-16.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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