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Pato vs Cearense Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 14 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 82-79
21-19 26-18 12-13 23-29
Position#17
Record1-7
FormLWLLL
Points / game70.6
Allowed / game79.2
Pato 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#19
Record2-4
FormWLLLL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game87.2
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2025-26
Meetings · Pato v Cearense
14 Nov 2025
PATO82
CEAR79
22 Oct 2024
PATO89
CEAR60
29 Nov 2023
PATO75
CEAR76
02 Mar 2023
PATO82
CEAR87
01 Dec 2021
PATO66
CEAR63
14 Nov 2020
PATO69
CEAR76
26 Feb 2020
PATO84
CEAR72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cearense winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Franca
#2
L
65-84
65
84
-19
50avg 71
A29/04
NBB
Franca
#2
L
82-101
82
101
-19
69avg 71
A01/05
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
63-70
63
70
-7
43avg 71
A21/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
88-92
88
92
-4
75avg 71
A23/10
NBB
Minas
#3
L
75-76
75
76
-1
65avg 71
H27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
69-71
69
71
-2
55avg 71
H29/10
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
70-65
70
65
+5
60avg 71
A04/11
NBB
Botafogo
#16
L
75-82
75
82
-7
57avg 71
A07/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
63-101
63
101
-38
42avg 71
A09/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
62-77
62
77
-15
36avg 71
H12/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-23
20-25
19-17
15-19
24-31
27-24
11-20
20-26
18-16
12-15
14-23
19-16
19-26
32-22
24-26
13-18
17-27
22-8
14-20
22-21
18-20
16-25
13-12
22-14
22-19
11-20
20-8
17-18
16-20
14-26
16-16
29-20
16-24
14-24
17-24
16-29
20-15
14-18
15-17
13-27
153.1Avg total
71.2Scored
81.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)70.679.2149.9-8.612%
Season at home (3)68.774.7143.3-6.00%
Season away (5)71.882.0153.8-10.220%
Last 10 (10)71.281.9153.1-10.710%
Last 5 (5)67.879.2147.0-11.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)75.186.0161.1-10.90%
vs Similar ◀ (13)80.778.2158.8+2.562%
vs Weaker (4)80.088.0168.0-8.025%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Mogi
#16
L
63-75
63
75
-12
48avg 67
A02/04
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
W
79-67
79
67
+12
70avg 67
H07/04
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
73-82
73
82
-9
65avg 67
H10/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
81-73
81
73
+8
79avg 67
H17/04
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
88-78
88
78
+10
74avg 67
A18/10
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
84-80
84
80
+4
84avg 67
A20/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
73-102
73
102
-29
61avg 67
A23/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
71-85
71
85
-14
66avg 67
A31/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
82-98
82
98
-16
59avg 67
H05/11
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
76-80
76
80
-4
66avg 67
H10/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-16
15-31
26-11
9-17
15-10
22-13
25-25
17-19
19-17
23-21
13-16
18-28
17-20
17-16
29-17
18-20
19-17
23-15
20-20
26-26
22-26
14-19
27-13
21-22
25-19
18-22
13-33
17-28
12-29
24-18
19-17
16-21
24-27
14-24
22-30
22-17
21-17
16-27
19-13
20-23
159.0Avg total
77.0Scored
82.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.087.2166.2-8.233%
Season at home (2)79.089.0168.0-10.00%
Season away (4)79.086.2165.2-7.250%
Last 10 (10)77.082.0159.0-5.040%
Last 5 (5)77.289.0166.2-11.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)74.783.0157.8-8.319%
vs Similar ◀ (9)77.175.8152.9+1.367%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -3.7-3.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -3.7-3.7
PatoCearense
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#2
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A29/04
NBB
Franca
#2
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A01/05
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A21/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A23/10
NBB
Minas
#3
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
34-45
34
45
-11
H29/10
NBB
Vasco
#20
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A04/11
NBB
Botafogo
#16
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A07/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
30-48
30
48
-18
A09/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H12/11
NBB
79.1Avg total
36.3Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.642.281.8-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.240.179.3-0.943%-
Last 30 away (16)39.944.184.0-4.238%-
Last 10 (10)36.342.879.1-6.530%-
Last 5 (5)32.242.274.4-10.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)37.742.079.7-4.331%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)40.140.580.5-0.446%-
vs Weaker (4)44.048.892.8-4.850%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mogi
#16
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A02/04
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H07/04
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H10/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H17/04
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
42-32
42
32
+10
A18/10
NBB
Botafogo
#16
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A20/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A23/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A31/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
38-51
38
51
-13
H05/11
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H10/11
NBB
77.7Avg total
37.3Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.540.177.6-2.630%-
Last 30 at home (12)36.839.476.2-2.625%-
Last 30 away (18)37.940.578.4-2.633%-
Last 10 (10)37.340.477.7-3.140%-
Last 5 (5)38.045.683.6-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)37.739.777.4-2.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)37.140.978.0-3.822%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 70.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.917.9
48.5%
52.2%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.37.6
25.1%
32.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws16.111.4
70.8%
72.8%11.4
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 76.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.817.4
47.3%
52.2%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.1
35.4%
32.5%27.3
🏀 Free throws19.113.9
72.8%
72.8%13.9
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
LLLWLLLLLL
Cearense
LLLLWWWLWL
#17
League position
#19
-14.9
Net rating
-7.0
92.5
Offensive rating
102.0
107.4
Defensive rating
108.9
43.6%
Effective FG%
49.7%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
17.8%
Turnover %
19.5%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
29.0%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.31
25.1%
3-point %
35.4%
46.3%
Assist %
64.5%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence92.5 · 102.0Defence107.4 · 108.9Shooting43.6% · 49.7%3-point %25.1% · 35.4%Ball care17.8% · 19.5%Off. rebounds27.9% · 29.0%Free throws0.24 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Pato   ■ Cearense
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Pato wins
6
Cearense wins
DateGameScore
13/01/25Cearense v Pato80-76
22/10/24Pato v Cearense89-60
02/03/24Cearense v Pato90-69
29/11/23Pato v Cearense75-76
02/03/23Pato v Cearense82-87
21/11/22Cearense v Pato80-60
02/03/22Cearense v Pato78-84
01/12/21Pato v Cearense66-63
28/01/21Cearense v Pato68-71
14/11/20Pato v Cearense69-76
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/25HUnifacisa62-77
09/11/25AFlamengo63-101
07/11/25ABotafogo75-82
04/11/25AVasco70-65
29/10/25HCruzeiro69-71
27/10/25HMinas75-76
23/10/25AUniao Corinthians88-92
21/10/25ACaxias do Sul63-70
01/05/25AFranca82-101
29/04/25AFranca65-84
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/25HMogi76-80
05/11/25HCorinthians Paulista82-98
31/10/25AUnifacisa71-85
23/10/25AFlamengo73-102
20/10/25ABotafogo84-80
18/10/25AVasco88-78
17/04/25HUnifacisa81-73
10/04/25HPinheiros73-82
07/04/25HCorinthians Paulista79-67
02/04/25AMogi63-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL12%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %12%0%20%
Points / game70.668.771.8
Allowed / game79.274.782.0
Point differential-8.6-6.0-10.2
Avg total149.9143.3153.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Cearense
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL33%
HomeLL0%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %33%0%50%
Points / game79.079.079.0
Allowed / game87.289.086.2
Point differential-8.2-10.0-7.2
Avg total166.2168.0165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo990100%91.071.9+19.1
2 Minas87188%85.276.6+8.6
3 Corinthians Paulista86275%86.476.4+10.0
4 Pinheiros86275%82.574.9+7.6
5 Brasilia75271%84.070.1+13.9
6 Mogi75271%80.167.6+12.6
7 Franca96367%83.973.8+10.1
8 Paulistano85362%79.072.9+6.1
9 Unifacisa74357%77.077.7-0.7
10 Bauru84450%71.272.9-1.6
11 Caxias do Sul63350%70.778.0-7.3
12 Sao Jose73443%73.773.9-0.1
13 Uniao Corinthians73443%76.185.1-9.0
14 Cearense62433%79.087.2-8.2
15 Rio Claro82625%81.091.6-10.6
16 Cruzeiro82625%74.085.8-11.8
17 Osasco82625%74.987.5-12.6
18 Botafogo92722%70.682.0-11.4
19 Pato81712%70.679.2-8.6
20 Vasco8080%67.177.1-10.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato2126122382
Cearense1918132979
← all games of the day
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