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Cearense vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 02 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 90-69
15-18 28-13 20-22 27-16
Position#8
Record14-12
FormWLWLW
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game77.0
vs
Position#12
Record11-16
FormWLLLL
Points / game76.7
Allowed / game79.6
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2023-24
Meetings · Cearense v Pato
09 Dec 2026
CEAR v PATO
upcoming
18 Feb 2026
CEAR64
PATO59
13 Jan 2025
CEAR80
PATO76
02 Mar 2024
CEAR90
PATO69
21 Nov 2022
CEAR80
PATO60
02 Mar 2022
CEAR78
PATO84
28 Jan 2021
CEAR68
PATO71
18 Oct 2019
CEAR78
PATO58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
72-77
72
77
-5
64avg 71
H03/01
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
75-81
75
81
-6
63avg 71
H13/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
75-81
75
81
-6
67avg 71
A16/01
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
88-93 OT
88
93
-5
no box
A18/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
99-95 OT
99
95
+4
no box
H22/01
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
93-75
93
75
+18
86avg 71
H24/01
NBB
Minas
#4
L
69-73
69
73
-4
57avg 71
A27/01
Super 8
Unifacisa
#6
W
80-73
80
73
+7
78avg 71
A06/02
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
51-64
51
64
-13
46avg 71
H10/02
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
84-75
84
75
+9
83avg 71
H14/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-29
21-22
12-15
17-11
20-18
16-25
22-20
17-18
16-24
22-12
22-22
15-23
21-17
15-21
20-24
20-14
15-19
14-18
25-17
22-22
23-19
24-20
22-19
24-17
20-31
15-15
14-12
20-15
21-19
24-22
15-6
20-26
11-24
17-14
13-8
10-18
16-15
20-16
30-23
18-21
157.3Avg total
78.6Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)78.877.0155.8+1.854%
Season at home (14)78.774.9153.6+3.964%
Season away (12)79.079.5158.5-0.542%
Last 10 (10)78.678.7157.3-0.140%
Last 5 (5)75.472.0147.4+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)78.082.7160.7-4.714%
vs Similar ◀ (13)78.576.7155.2+1.862%
vs Weaker (9)80.175.2155.3+4.967%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
78-74
78
74
+4
65avg 68
H29/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
77-65
77
65
+12
76avg 68
A06/01
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
82-75
82
75
+7
77avg 68
A08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
97-91 OT
97
91
+6
no box
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
67-76
67
76
-9
56avg 68
H15/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
97-86
97
86
+11
92avg 68
H24/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-88
80
88
-8
71avg 68
H05/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
74-80
74
80
-6
57avg 68
H07/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
79-89
79
89
-10
65avg 68
A15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
65-97
65
97
-32
54avg 68
A17/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
18-17
20-20
16-21
15-19
26-16
12-15
24-15
22-15
13-21
26-16
21-23
21-17
20-20
19-26
21-18
15-21
16-23
24-18
12-14
24-19
27-30
26-23
20-14
20-28
14-25
18-16
28-19
13-15
20-21
15-24
26-20
15-27
18-20
23-18
23-24
21-23
20-29
11-22
13-23
161.7Avg total
79.6Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)76.779.6156.3-2.941%
Season at home (13)79.476.9156.3+2.554%
Season away (14)74.282.1156.4-7.929%
Last 10 (10)79.682.1161.7-2.550%
Last 5 (5)79.088.0167.0-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)72.882.1154.8-9.325%
vs Similar ◀ (11)76.482.5158.9-6.227%
vs Weaker (7)82.172.7154.9+9.486%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.3+1.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.3+1.3
CearensePato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
43-51
43
51
-8
H03/01
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H13/01
NBB
Franca
#1
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A16/01
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A18/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H22/01
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H24/01
NBB
Minas
#4
L
35-46
35
46
-11
A27/01
Super 8
Unifacisa
#6
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A06/02
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
28-38
28
38
-10
H10/02
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H14/02
NBB
77.3Avg total
37.3Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.638.777.3-0.150%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.337.375.5+1.053%-
Last 30 away (15)38.940.179.0-1.347%-
Last 10 (10)37.340.077.3-2.740%-
Last 5 (5)38.239.077.2-0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)38.740.178.9-1.457%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)38.238.476.5-0.246%-
vs Weaker (9)39.437.276.7+2.256%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H29/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A06/01
NBB
Cerrado
#17
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H15/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H24/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
34-53
34
53
-19
H05/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H07/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A17/02
NBB
80.4Avg total
38.2Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.739.377.1-1.643%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.738.075.7-0.343%-
Last 30 away (16)37.840.578.2-2.844%-
Last 10 (10)38.242.280.4-4.040%-
Last 5 (5)38.447.485.8-9.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)36.841.278.0-4.533%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)35.739.575.3-3.827%-
vs Weaker (7)42.635.778.3+6.986%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.7 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.521.5
58.9%
51.8%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.45.9
26.3%
33.9%17.7
🏀 Free throws21.215.6
73.6%
72.6%15.6
They take 58.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 77.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.218.9
52.2%
51.8%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.4
33.8%
33.9%28.2
🏀 Free throws15.611.0
70.5%
72.6%11.0
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
WLWLWWLLLL
Pato
LLLLWLWWWW
#8
League position
#12
+4.0
Net rating
-1.8
104.5
Offensive rating
109.0
100.6
Defensive rating
110.8
51.5%
Effective FG%
51.6%
48.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
19.6%
Turnover %
15.8%
29.3%
Off. rebound %
31.8%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.24
26.3%
3-point %
33.8%
47.1%
Assist %
54.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence104.5 · 109.0Defence100.6 · 110.8Shooting51.5% · 51.6%3-point %26.3% · 33.8%Ball care19.6% · 15.8%Off. rebounds29.3% · 31.8%Free throws0.36 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Cearense   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Cearense wins
4
Pato wins
DateGameScore
29/11/23Pato v Cearense75-76
02/03/23Pato v Cearense82-87
21/11/22Cearense v Pato80-60
02/03/22Cearense v Pato78-84
01/12/21Pato v Cearense66-63
28/01/21Cearense v Pato68-71
14/11/20Pato v Cearense69-76
26/02/20Pato v Cearense84-72
18/10/19Cearense v Pato78-58
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/24HBotafogo84-75
10/02/24HPaulistano51-64
06/02/24AUnifacisa80-73
27/01/24AMinas69-73
24/01/24HMogi93-75
22/01/24HSao Jose99-95 OT
18/01/24ABauru88-93 OT
16/01/24AFranca75-81
13/01/24HSao Paulo75-81
03/01/24HFranca72-77
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/24AFranca65-97
15/02/24ABauru79-89
07/02/24HSao Paulo74-80
05/02/24HSao Jose80-88
24/01/24HBotafogo97-86
15/01/24HVasco67-76
13/01/24HFlamengo97-91 OT
08/01/24ACerrado82-75
06/01/24ABrasilia77-65
29/12/23HCaxias do Sul78-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW54%
HomeLWWLW64%
AwayLLLLW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %54%64%42%
Points / game78.878.779.0
Allowed / game77.074.979.5
Point differential+1.8+3.9-0.5
Avg total155.8153.6158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%36%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)50% (6)43% (7)
Overtime %12%7%17%
Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL41%
HomeWLWLL54%
AwayLWWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %41%54%29%
Points / game76.779.474.2
Allowed / game79.676.982.1
Point differential-2.9+2.5-7.9
Avg total156.3156.3156.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%23%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo2723485%85.974.0+11.9
2 Franca2622485%88.076.0+12.0
3 Minas2621581%87.373.5+13.8
4 Vasco2518772%75.671.8+3.8
5 Paulistano2517868%74.470.6+3.8
6 Bauru26161062%79.778.2+1.5
7 Unifacisa28171161%83.379.1+4.2
8 Sao Jose26151158%81.576.9+4.6
9 Cearense26141254%78.877.0+1.8
10 Sao Paulo27131448%78.880.5-1.7
11 Corinthians Paulista25121348%79.378.5+0.8
12 Pinheiros26111542%75.678.4-2.8
13 Pato27111641%76.779.6-2.9
14 Uniao Corinthians27101737%74.882.6-7.8
15 Cerrado2681831%75.376.4-1.1
16 Caxias do Sul2781930%72.379.9-7.6
17 Botafogo2862221%77.386.7-9.4
18 Mogi2642215%72.381.2-8.8
19 Brasilia2642215%70.885.8-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cearense1528202790
Pato1813221669
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