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Cearense vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 13 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 80-76
17-31 29-19 23-16 11-10
Position#17
Record4-15
FormLLWLL
Points / game69.2
Allowed / game77.4
vs
Position#14
Record7-13
FormWLWLL
Points / game81.8
Allowed / game85.0
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2024-25
Meetings · Cearense v Pato
09 Dec 2026
CEAR v PATO
upcoming
18 Feb 2026
CEAR64
PATO59
13 Jan 2025
CEAR80
PATO76
02 Mar 2024
CEAR90
PATO69
21 Nov 2022
CEAR80
PATO60
02 Mar 2022
CEAR78
PATO84
28 Jan 2021
CEAR68
PATO71
18 Oct 2019
CEAR78
PATO58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Sao Paulo
#13
L
79-80 OT
79
80
-1
71avg 67
H14/11
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
71-80
71
80
-9
66avg 67
A27/11
NBB
Franca
#2
L
71-97
71
97
-26
59avg 67
A29/11
NBB
Mogi
#16
W
76-69
76
69
+7
72avg 67
H06/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
55-75
55
75
-20
41avg 67
H09/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
83-92
83
92
-9
81avg 67
A12/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
74-76
74
76
-2
71avg 67
A14/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
81-77
81
77
+4
76avg 67
A19/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
70-73
70
73
-3
69avg 67
A27/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
71-82
71
82
-11
60avg 67
A29/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-17
16-20
24-15
20-21
12-21
24-21
18-20
17-18
15-25
13-24
18-21
25-27
18-14
22-19
18-19
18-17
14-16
11-21
18-22
12-16
24-25
23-22
11-23
25-22
20-14
16-21
17-22
21-19
24-16
25-19
8-19
24-23
18-21
20-18
12-20
20-14
22-28
14-19
16-16
19-19
153.2Avg total
73.1Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)69.277.4146.6-8.221%
Season at home (9)66.471.7138.1-5.233%
Season away (10)71.782.5154.2-10.810%
Last 10 (10)73.180.1153.2-7.020%
Last 5 (5)75.880.0155.8-4.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)69.379.6148.9-10.313%
vs Similar ◀ (11)71.574.7146.3-3.245%
vs Weaker (4)84.076.5160.5+7.575%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#18
W
98-78
98
78
+20
100avg 73
H28/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
103-110 OT
103
110
-7
88avg 73
H03/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
70-97
70
97
-27
63avg 73
A05/12
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
91-97
91
97
-6
85avg 73
A13/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
94-98
94
98
-4
86avg 73
A16/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
85-81
85
81
+4
75avg 73
H19/12
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
90-106
90
106
-16
85avg 73
H21/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
W
90-86
90
86
+4
87avg 73
H27/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
76-85
76
85
-9
68avg 73
H29/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
67-80
67
80
-13
52avg 73
A10/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-20
20-11
25-14
26-33
28-29
23-26
25-24
22-19
19-30
19-22
14-23
18-22
18-16
29-26
20-26
24-29
22-21
24-19
26-27
22-31
22-18
16-23
22-19
25-21
28-30
20-26
20-21
22-29
22-16
19-18
21-25
28-27
19-22
22-18
25-23
10-22
15-16
19-13
13-22
20-29
178.2Avg total
86.4Scored
91.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)81.885.0166.9-3.235%
Season at home (11)85.483.6169.0+1.755%
Season away (9)77.686.8164.3-9.211%
Last 10 (10)86.491.8178.2-5.430%
Last 5 (5)81.687.6169.2-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)81.189.2170.3-8.122%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.379.9159.1-0.647%
vs Weaker (6)88.380.2168.5+8.267%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -3.7-3.7Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -4.5-4.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -3.7-3.7Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -4.5-4.5
CearensePato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Paulo
#13
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H14/11
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A27/11
NBB
Franca
#2
L
28-49
28
49
-21
A29/11
NBB
Mogi
#16
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H06/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
25-37
25
37
-12
H09/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A12/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A14/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
49-35
49
35
+14
A19/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A27/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A29/12
NBB
76.5Avg total
36.4Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.139.374.3-4.233%-
Last 30 at home (14)31.638.069.6-6.429%-
Last 30 away (16)38.140.478.5-2.238%-
Last 10 (10)36.440.176.5-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)41.240.681.8+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)33.941.975.9-8.027%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)32.537.169.5-4.618%-
vs Weaker (4)46.535.281.8+11.2100%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#18
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H28/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
51-55
51
55
-4
H03/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
38-52
38
52
-14
A05/12
NBB
Bauru
#4
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A13/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A16/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H19/12
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
48-56
48
56
-8
H21/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H27/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H29/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A10/01
NBB
85.1Avg total
43.1Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.139.181.2+2.967%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.238.681.8+4.671%-
Last 30 away (13)40.639.880.5+0.862%-
Last 10 (10)43.142.085.1+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)40.440.080.4+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)42.243.986.1-1.756%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)40.337.377.5+3.067%-
vs Weaker (6)46.336.783.0+9.783%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 71.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.117.8
50.7%
50.9%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.37.3
31.3%
33.0%21.9
🏀 Free throws20.514.4
70.2%
72.7%14.4
They take 58.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 85.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.318.3
53.4%
50.9%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.312.0
37.2%
33.0%36.0
🏀 Free throws17.113.0
76.0%
72.7%13.0
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LLWLLLWLLL
Pato
LLWLWLLLLW
#17
League position
#14
-10.6
Net rating
-7.0
99.9
Offensive rating
111.7
110.4
Defensive rating
118.7
49.2%
Effective FG%
54.5%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
18.4%
Turnover %
17.8%
25.7%
Off. rebound %
30.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.3%
3-point %
37.2%
61.0%
Assist %
57.8%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence99.9 · 111.7Defence110.4 · 118.7Shooting49.2% · 54.5%3-point %31.3% · 37.2%Ball care18.4% · 17.8%Off. rebounds25.7% · 30.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)20% · 30%
■ Cearense   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Cearense wins
5
Pato wins
DateGameScore
22/10/24Pato v Cearense89-60
02/03/24Cearense v Pato90-69
29/11/23Pato v Cearense75-76
02/03/23Pato v Cearense82-87
21/11/22Cearense v Pato80-60
02/03/22Cearense v Pato78-84
01/12/21Pato v Cearense66-63
28/01/21Cearense v Pato68-71
14/11/20Pato v Cearense69-76
26/02/20Pato v Cearense84-72
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24AUniao Corinthians71-82
27/12/24ACaxias do Sul70-73
19/12/24AUnifacisa81-77
14/12/24APinheiros74-76
12/12/24ACorinthians Paulista83-92
09/12/24HSao Jose55-75
06/12/24HMogi76-69
29/11/24AFranca71-97
27/11/24ABauru71-80
14/11/24HSao Paulo79-80 OT
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/25AUnifacisa67-80
29/12/24HCorinthians Paulista76-85
27/12/24HPinheiros90-86
21/12/24HMogi90-106
19/12/24HSao Jose85-81
16/12/24ABrasilia94-98
13/12/24ABauru91-97
05/12/24AMinas70-97
03/12/24HFlamengo103-110 OT
28/11/24HBotafogo98-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL21%
HomeLWLWL33%
AwayLLWLL10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %21%33%10%
Points / game69.266.471.7
Allowed / game77.471.782.5
Point differential-8.2-5.2-10.8
Avg total146.6138.1154.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%11%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)0% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %5%11%0%
Pato
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL35%
HomeLWLWL55%
AwayLLLLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %35%55%11%
Points / game81.885.477.6
Allowed / game85.083.686.8
Point differential-3.2+1.7-9.2
Avg total166.9169.0164.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%18%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)100% (3)25% (4)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas1917289%83.370.0+13.3
2 Flamengo1915479%83.972.0+11.9
3 Brasilia2013765%83.681.5+2.0
4 Pinheiros2012860%76.874.5+2.4
5 Franca1911858%81.178.3+2.8
6 Uniao Corinthians1911858%78.378.6-0.3
7 Bauru2011955%78.079.5-1.4
8 Sao Paulo1910953%78.478.2+0.2
9 Sao Jose20101050%76.675.3+1.2
10 Vasco20101050%74.374.3-0.1
11 Unifacisa20101050%75.475.7-0.2
12 Paulistano1991047%77.775.0+2.7
13 Corinthians Paulista2091145%80.880.8+0.0
14 Pato2071335%81.885.0-3.2
15 Mogi2061430%71.979.5-7.6
16 Botafogo2061430%72.880.8-7.9
17 Caxias do Sul1951426%72.279.1-6.9
18 Cearense1941521%69.277.4-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cearense1729231180
Pato3119161076
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