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Penarol vs Welcome Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 12 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 88-59
22-9 23-13 21-13 22-24
Position#3
Record13-5
FormLWWWW
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game74.4
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#12
Record4-15
FormWLLWL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game94.4
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2024-25
Meetings · Penarol v Welcome
20 Jan 2026
PENA107
WELC74
11 Feb 2025
PENA88
WELC59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
70-64
70
64
+6
61avg 78
H20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
93-65
93
65
+28
94avg 78
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
97-56
97
56
+41
94avg 78
A07/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
105-83
105
83
+22
107avg 78
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
69-77
69
77
-8
59avg 78
A15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
85-89
85
89
-4
78avg 78
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
79-70
79
70
+9
73avg 78
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
93-75
93
75
+18
94avg 78
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
104-92
104
92
+12
99avg 78
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
83-80
83
80
+3
83avg 78
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-19
14-17
24-14
18-14
31-15
18-24
21-17
23-9
27-7
27-15
18-22
25-12
28-16
25-24
26-25
26-18
10-19
22-16
23-21
14-21
23-24
17-26
25-22
20-17
15-21
19-16
20-16
25-17
23-16
22-24
21-18
27-17
31-23
30-19
17-25
26-25
17-9
24-29
28-23
14-19
162.9Avg total
87.8Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)84.774.4159.1+10.272%
Season at home (9)81.274.0155.2+7.278%
Season away (9)88.174.9163.0+13.267%
Last 10 (10)87.875.1162.9+12.780%
Last 5 (5)88.881.2170.0+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)81.584.5166.0-3.00%
vs Similar (9)78.079.6157.6-1.633%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)86.872.7159.5+14.184%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Urupan
#10
L
86-92
86
92
-6
74avg 65
A20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
74-104
74
104
-30
60avg 65
H06/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
84-81
84
81
+3
74avg 65
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
97-86 OT
97
86
+11
86avg 65
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
82-87
82
87
-5
75avg 65
H21/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
88-83
88
83
+5
74avg 65
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
70-97
70
97
-27
60avg 65
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
69-117
69
117
-48
53avg 65
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
71-66
71
66
+5
63avg 65
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
77-112
77
112
-35
70avg 65
A08/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
14-21
30-27
24-23
23-26
22-17
22-29
7-32
19-23
20-12
21-21
24-25
8-26
23-23
26-19
24-13
17-22
26-26
19-19
20-20
16-25
19-26
28-17
25-15
13-31
22-23
22-24
13-19
21-28
23-29
13-30
12-30
19-15
20-19
11-15
21-17
17-29
23-23
22-30
15-30
172.3Avg total
79.8Scored
92.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)77.394.4171.6-17.121%
Season at home (10)76.593.1169.6-16.620%
Season away (9)78.195.8173.9-17.722%
Last 10 (10)79.892.5172.3-12.740%
Last 5 (5)75.095.0170.0-20.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)78.194.1172.2-16.015%
vs Similar (2)74.074.5148.5-0.550%
vs Weaker (1)100.091.0191.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +5.0+5.0Q1: -7.5-7.5Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: -3.9-3.9
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +5.0+5.0Q1: -7.5-7.5Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: -3.9-3.9
PenarolWelcome
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
L
28-36
28
36
-8
H20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A07/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
61-42
61
42
+19
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
81.6Avg total
43.7Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.338.581.8+4.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.439.580.9+1.950%-
Last 30 away (14)45.537.382.8+8.271%-
Last 10 (10)43.737.981.6+5.860%-
Last 5 (5)44.241.485.6+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)41.045.086.0-4.050%-
vs Similar (9)40.739.079.7+1.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.837.582.3+7.374%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urupan
#10
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H06/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H21/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
44-57
44
57
-13
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A08/02
Liga Uruguaya
84.8Avg total
38.3Scored
46.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.647.083.6-10.320%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.244.181.3-6.831%-
Last 30 away (14)35.950.386.2-14.47%-
Last 10 (10)38.346.584.8-8.230%-
Last 5 (5)38.649.688.2-11.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)36.247.884.0-11.615%-
vs Similar (2)39.034.573.5+4.5100%-
vs Weaker (1)44.049.093.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 86.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.521.4
54.2%
51.5%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.610.3
37.3%
33.0%30.9
🏀 Free throws18.413.1
71.2%
71.7%13.1
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 79.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.520.3
48.9%
51.5%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.38.6
32.7%
33.0%25.8
🏀 Free throws18.412.6
68.5%
71.7%12.6
They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WWWWLLWWWW
Welcome
LWLLWLWWLL
#3
League position
#12
+16.2
Net rating
-15.7
114.6
Offensive rating
99.4
98.4
Defensive rating
115.1
54.9%
Effective FG%
49.0%
51.3%
Opp. effective FG%
56.9%
14.2%
Turnover %
18.5%
27.8%
Off. rebound %
26.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
37.3%
3-point %
32.7%
69.1%
Assist %
59.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence114.6 · 99.4Defence98.4 · 115.1Shooting54.9% · 49.0%3-point %37.3% · 32.7%Ball care14.2% · 18.5%Off. rebounds27.8% · 26.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Penarol   ■ Welcome
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Penarol wins
0
Welcome wins
DateGameScore
11/12/24Welcome v Penarol66-91
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/25AUrunday83-80
30/01/25ACordon104-92
27/01/25HTrouville93-75
25/01/25HMalvin79-70
19/01/25HNacional85-89
15/01/25AAguada69-77
10/01/25AUrupan105-83
07/01/25ATrouville97-56
04/01/25AHebraica y Macabi93-65
20/12/24HDefensor70-64
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/25ADefensor77-112
04/02/25HTrouville71-66
30/01/25HNacional69-117
27/01/25AMalvin70-97
24/01/25AHebraica y Macabi88-83
21/01/25HBigua82-87
16/01/25AUrunday97-86 OT
10/01/25HCordon84-81
06/01/25HAguada74-104
20/12/24AUrupan86-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW72%
HomeWWLWW78%
AwayWWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %72%78%67%
Points / game84.781.288.1
Allowed / game74.474.074.9
Point differential+10.2+7.2+13.2
Avg total159.1155.2163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%22%56%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %6%11%0%
Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL21%
HomeLWLLW20%
AwayLWWLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %21%20%22%
Points / game77.376.578.1
Allowed / game94.493.195.8
Point differential-17.1-16.6-17.7
Avg total171.6169.6173.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%0%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)67% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %11%10%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional2019195%94.276.7+17.5
2 Aguada1915479%89.579.9+9.6
3 Penarol1813572%84.774.4+10.2
4 Malvin1912763%79.776.8+2.9
5 Defensor1910953%87.381.9+5.4
6 Cordon2091145%84.886.6-1.9
7 Hebraica y Macabi2091145%85.787.9-2.2
8 Bigua1881044%84.385.3-1.0
9 Urupan1961332%80.586.8-6.3
10 Urunday2061430%78.785.8-7.1
11 Trouville1941521%73.583.5-9.9
12 Welcome1941521%77.394.4-17.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol2223212288
Welcome913132459
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