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Welcome vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 30 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 69-117
21-28 23-29 13-30 12-30
Position#12
Record3-13
FormWWLWL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game93.6
vs
Position#1
Record15-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game91.2
Allowed / game77.6
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Gimnasio Óscar Magurno
Other2024-25
Meetings · Welcome v Nacional
16 Oct 2025
WELC106
NACI117
30 Jan 2025
WELC69
NACI117
16 Oct 2018
WELC73
NACI75
16 Apr 2018
WELC68
NACI70
09 Apr 2018
WELC79
NACI85
02 Apr 2018
WELC85
NACI67
05 Oct 2017
WELC81
NACI74
26 Nov 2012
WELC81
NACI71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Trouville
#13
L
77-83
77
83
-6
69avg 66
A02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
111-120 OT
111
120
-9
107avg 66
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
L
66-91
66
91
-25
56avg 66
H11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
86-92
86
92
-6
74avg 66
A20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
74-104
74
104
-30
60avg 66
H06/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
84-81
84
81
+3
74avg 66
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
97-86 OT
97
86
+11
86avg 66
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
82-87
82
87
-5
75avg 66
H21/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
88-83
88
83
+5
74avg 66
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
70-97
70
97
-27
60avg 66
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-16
21-19
19-26
19-22
24-22
15-26
27-18
28-28
21-17
18-28
12-21
15-25
18-21
14-21
30-27
24-23
23-26
22-17
22-29
7-32
19-23
20-12
21-21
24-25
8-26
23-23
26-19
24-13
17-22
26-26
19-19
20-20
16-25
19-26
28-17
25-15
13-31
22-23
22-24
13-19
175.9Avg total
83.5Scored
92.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)78.293.6171.8-15.419%
Season at home (8)78.193.5171.6-15.412%
Season away (8)78.293.8172.0-15.525%
Last 10 (10)83.592.4175.9-8.930%
Last 5 (5)84.286.8171.0-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)78.792.2170.9-13.615%
vs Similar (1)77.083.0160.0-6.00%
vs Weaker (3)92.784.3177.0+8.3100%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Aguada
#2
W
90-88
90
88
+2
81avg 78
A13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
89-75
89
75
+14
76avg 78
H16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
90-72
90
72
+18
83avg 78
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
97-82
97
82
+15
98avg 78
H03/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
88-78
88
78
+10
76avg 78
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
101-88
101
88
+13
90avg 78
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
88-67
88
67
+21
78avg 78
A14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
89-85
89
85
+4
86avg 78
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
L
77-81
77
81
-4
69avg 78
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
96-81
96
81
+15
93avg 78
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-27
24-23
23-24
29-14
23-18
23-15
26-26
17-16
30-18
21-18
22-23
17-13
27-18
25-20
22-13
23-31
21-18
20-20
26-20
21-20
21-30
25-22
32-17
23-19
20-12
26-19
27-16
15-20
24-23
26-17
22-25
17-20
16-13
22-20
21-13
18-35
23-17
16-19
26-26
31-19
170.2Avg total
90.5Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)91.277.6168.8+13.794%
Season at home (9)93.077.7170.7+15.389%
Season away (7)89.077.4166.4+11.6100%
Last 10 (10)90.579.7170.2+10.890%
Last 5 (5)90.280.4170.6+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)88.484.9173.2+3.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)87.074.0160.9+13.091%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -5.2-5.2Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.5+3.5Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +0.4+0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -5.2-5.2Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.5+3.5Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +0.4+0.4
WelcomeNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trouville
#13
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H06/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H21/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
82.7Avg total
37.7Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.146.183.2-9.027%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.643.380.9-5.733%-
Last 30 away (15)36.648.985.5-12.320%-
Last 10 (10)37.745.082.7-7.330%-
Last 5 (5)36.647.484.0-10.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)36.147.283.2-11.119%-
vs Similar (1)39.035.074.0+4.0100%-
vs Weaker (3)45.341.086.3+4.367%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aguada
#2
L
38-50
38
50
-12
A13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
51-36
51
36
+15
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H03/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
46-52
46
52
-6
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
46-31
46
31
+15
A14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
83.4Avg total
44.7Scored
38.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.739.283.8+5.573%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.239.884.9+5.475%-
Last 30 away (14)44.138.582.6+5.671%-
Last 10 (10)44.738.783.4+6.080%-
Last 5 (5)43.838.482.2+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)45.144.089.1+1.162%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.537.481.9+7.177%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.621.0
50.5%
51.5%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.49.0
34.1%
33.0%27.0
🏀 Free throws19.313.5
69.9%
71.7%13.5
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 89.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.023.3
50.7%
51.5%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.8
34.5%
33.0%29.4
🏀 Free throws19.613.5
68.9%
71.7%13.5
They take 74.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Welcome
LWLWWLLLLL
Nacional
WLWWWWWWWW
#12
League position
#1
-11.3
Net rating
+13.2
102.1
Offensive rating
111.4
113.4
Defensive rating
98.2
50.7%
Effective FG%
51.1%
56.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
19.5%
Turnover %
12.6%
28.4%
Off. rebound %
28.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.1%
3-point %
34.5%
57.3%
Assist %
66.2%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence102.1 · 111.4Defence113.4 · 98.2Shooting50.7% · 51.1%3-point %34.1% · 34.5%Ball care19.5% · 12.6%Off. rebounds28.4% · 28.8%Free throws0.28 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)30% · 90%
■ Welcome   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Welcome wins
7
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
01/11/24Nacional v Welcome115-64
04/01/19Nacional v Welcome104-85
16/10/18Welcome v Nacional73-75
17/04/18Welcome v Nacional68-70
12/04/18Nacional v Welcome75-89
09/04/18Welcome v Nacional79-85
05/04/18Nacional v Welcome80-77
02/04/18Welcome v Nacional85-67
06/03/18Nacional v Welcome88-96 OT
18/12/17Nacional v Welcome106-86
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/25AMalvin70-97
24/01/25AHebraica y Macabi88-83
21/01/25HBigua82-87
16/01/25AUrunday97-86 OT
10/01/25HCordon84-81
06/01/25HAguada74-104
20/12/24AUrupan86-92
11/12/24HPenarol66-91
05/12/24HDefensor111-120 OT
02/12/24ATrouville77-83
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/25HDefensor96-81
23/01/25HTrouville77-81
19/01/25APenarol89-85
14/01/25AMalvin88-67
10/01/25HHebraica y Macabi101-88
08/01/25ADefensor88-78
03/01/25HBigua97-82
19/12/24AUrunday90-72
16/12/24HUrupan89-75
13/12/24AAguada90-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL19%
HomeLLLWL12%
AwayLLWWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %19%12%25%
Points / game78.278.178.2
Allowed / game93.693.593.8
Point differential-15.4-15.4-15.5
Avg total171.8171.6172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%0%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %12%12%12%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW94%
HomeWWWLW89%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %94%89%100%
Points / game91.293.089.0
Allowed / game77.677.777.4
Point differential+13.7+15.3+11.6
Avg total168.8170.7166.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%78%71%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional1615194%91.277.6+13.7
2 Aguada1612475%89.879.8+10.1
3 Penarol1611569%83.673.0+10.6
4 Malvin1611569%80.877.1+3.7
5 Defensor168850%85.981.9+4.0
6 Bigua167944%84.185.3-1.2
7 Cordon167944%84.085.5-1.5
8 Hebraica y Macabi167944%84.787.6-2.9
9 Urunday1661038%78.284.2-5.9
10 Urupan1651131%79.984.1-4.2
11 Trouville1641225%73.384.1-10.8
12 Welcome1631319%78.293.6-15.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Welcome2123131269
Nacional28293030117
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