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Penarol vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 19 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 85-89
23-24 17-26 25-22 20-17
Position#3
Record9-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game71.8
Penarol
Uruguay
vs
Nacional 🏆
Uruguay
Position#1
Record13-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game92.2
Allowed / game76.5
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2024-25
Meetings · Penarol v Nacional
08 Apr 2026
PENA71
NACI78
08 Dec 2025
PENA82
NACI69
18 Jan 2025
PENA85
NACI89
22 Apr 2024
PENA63
NACI67
06 Feb 2024
PENA79
NACI68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
L
73-75
73
75
-2
67avg 75
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
78-80
78
80
-2
76avg 75
A13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
94-67
94
67
+27
97avg 75
H02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
76-73
76
73
+3
67avg 75
H06/12
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
91-66
91
66
+25
96avg 75
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
70-64
70
64
+6
61avg 75
H20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
93-65
93
65
+28
94avg 75
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
97-56
97
56
+41
94avg 75
A07/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
105-83
105
83
+22
107avg 75
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
69-77
69
77
-8
59avg 75
A15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-15
28-7
10-25
18-28
21-19
21-21
17-24
19-16
22-15
25-17
23-21
24-14
23-24
19-17
22-16
12-16
17-21
28-18
21-12
25-15
14-19
14-17
24-14
18-14
31-15
18-24
21-17
23-9
27-7
27-15
18-22
25-12
28-16
25-24
26-25
26-18
10-19
22-16
23-21
14-21
155.2Avg total
84.6Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)83.171.8154.9+11.269%
Season at home (6)79.072.0151.0+7.083%
Season away (7)86.671.7158.3+14.957%
Last 10 (10)84.670.6155.2+14.070%
Last 5 (5)86.869.0155.8+17.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)78.080.0158.0-2.00%
vs Similar (10)76.879.0155.8-2.230%
vs Weaker (19)86.872.8159.7+14.084%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Penarol
#3
W
80-78
80
78
+2
67avg 77
H13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
98-83
98
83
+15
87avg 77
H07/12
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
92-82
92
82
+10
84avg 77
A10/12
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
90-88
90
88
+2
81avg 77
A13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
89-75
89
75
+14
76avg 77
H16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
90-72
90
72
+18
83avg 77
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
97-82
97
82
+15
98avg 77
H03/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
88-78
88
78
+10
76avg 77
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
101-88
101
88
+13
90avg 77
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
88-67
88
67
+21
78avg 77
A14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-21
21-21
24-17
16-19
34-17
19-17
18-26
27-23
17-17
25-29
23-21
27-15
14-27
24-23
23-24
29-14
23-18
23-15
26-26
17-16
30-18
21-18
22-23
17-13
27-18
25-20
22-13
23-31
21-18
20-20
26-20
21-20
21-30
25-22
32-17
23-19
20-12
26-19
27-16
15-20
170.6Avg total
91.3Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.276.5168.6+15.7100%
Season at home (7)94.976.7171.6+18.1100%
Season away (6)89.076.2165.2+12.8100%
Last 10 (10)91.379.3170.6+12.0100%
Last 5 (5)92.877.4170.2+15.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)88.486.9175.3+1.644%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)85.574.5160.0+11.086%
This opponent (Penarol) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: +5.1+5.1Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +2.5+2.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: +5.1+5.1Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +2.5+2.5
PenarolNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
45-22
45
22
+23
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H06/12
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
45-39
45
39
+6
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
28-36
28
36
-8
H20/12
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A07/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A15/01
Liga Uruguaya
78.3Avg total
43.7Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.638.582.1+5.160%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.839.381.1+2.550%-
Last 30 away (14)45.637.583.1+8.171%-
Last 10 (10)43.734.678.3+9.180%-
Last 5 (5)43.234.477.6+8.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)42.040.082.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (10)41.039.180.1+1.940%-
vs Weaker (19)45.138.183.1+7.068%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penarol
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H07/12
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A10/12
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
38-50
38
50
-12
A13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
51-36
51
36
+15
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H03/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
46-52
46
52
-6
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
46-31
46
31
+15
A14/01
Liga Uruguaya
85.5Avg total
45.5Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.540.585.0+4.067%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.941.886.8+3.162%-
Last 30 away (14)44.039.083.0+5.071%-
Last 10 (10)45.540.085.5+5.560%-
Last 5 (5)47.239.086.2+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)45.644.389.9+1.267%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)44.038.982.9+5.267%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 83.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.619.9
55.9%
51.5%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.4
35.5%
33.0%31.2
🏀 Free throws18.112.2
67.4%
71.7%12.2
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 90.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.023.9
52.0%
51.5%47.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.510.1
33.1%
33.0%30.3
🏀 Free throws18.312.2
66.7%
71.7%12.2
They take 76.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
LWWWWWWWLL
Nacional
WWWWWWWWWW
#3
League position
#1
+17.8
Net rating
+14.2
112.4
Offensive rating
110.6
94.6
Defensive rating
96.4
54.7%
Effective FG%
51.0%
47.8%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
14.6%
Turnover %
13.1%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
29.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.5%
3-point %
33.1%
71.3%
Assist %
62.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
100%

Profile

Offence112.4 · 110.6Defence94.6 · 96.4Shooting54.7% · 51.0%3-point %35.5% · 33.1%Ball care14.6% · 13.1%Off. rebounds27.9% · 29.2%Free throws0.28 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 100%
■ Penarol   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Penarol wins
3
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
13/11/24Nacional v Penarol80-78
23/04/24Penarol v Nacional63-67
06/04/24Nacional v Penarol94-78
07/02/24Penarol v Nacional79-68
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/25AAguada69-77
10/01/25AUrupan105-83
07/01/25ATrouville97-56
04/01/25AHebraica y Macabi93-65
20/12/24HDefensor70-64
11/12/24AWelcome91-66
06/12/24HBigua76-73
02/12/24HUrunday94-67
13/11/24ANacional78-80
07/11/24AMalvin73-75
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/25AMalvin88-67
10/01/25HHebraica y Macabi101-88
08/01/25ADefensor88-78
03/01/25HBigua97-82
19/12/24AUrunday90-72
16/12/24HUrupan89-75
13/12/24AAguada90-88
10/12/24AHebraica y Macabi92-82
07/12/24HCordon98-83
13/11/24HPenarol80-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL69%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWWWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %69%83%57%
Points / game83.179.086.6
Allowed / game71.872.071.7
Point differential+11.2+7.0+14.9
Avg total154.9151.0158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%17%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)100% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %8%17%0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game92.294.989.0
Allowed / game76.576.776.2
Point differential+15.7+18.1+12.8
Avg total168.6171.6165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+85%86%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional13130100%92.276.5+15.7
2 Aguada1411379%89.678.5+11.1
3 Penarol139469%83.171.8+11.2
4 Malvin139469%79.176.5+2.5
5 Hebraica y Macabi147750%86.288.6-2.4
6 Defensor136746%86.282.2+4.0
7 Bigua136746%84.585.2-0.7
8 Urunday136746%78.882.5-3.7
9 Cordon145936%82.985.9-3.0
10 Urupan1331023%80.886.8-6.1
11 Trouville1431121%72.683.9-11.3
12 Welcome1321115%77.894.7-16.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol2317252085
Nacional2426221789
← all games of the day
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