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Nacional vs Welcome Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 13 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 120-91
28-14 34-29 25-28 33-20
Position#2
Record10-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game91.4
Allowed / game83.1
vs
Position#12
Record1-13
FormLLLWL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game98.8
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2025-26
Meetings · Nacional v Welcome
12 Jan 2026
NACI120
WELC91
01 Nov 2024
NACI115
WELC64
04 Jan 2019
NACI104
WELC85
12 Apr 2018
NACI75
WELC89
05 Apr 2018
NACI80
WELC77
06 Mar 2018
NACI88
WELC96
18 Dec 2017
NACI106
WELC86
08 Oct 2012
NACI78
WELC65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Urunday
#9
W
104-70
104
70
+34
104avg 83
H07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
89-79
89
79
+10
78avg 83
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
64avg 83
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
88-72
88
72
+16
74avg 83
H20/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
109-90
109
90
+19
109avg 83
A04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
69-82
69
82
-13
58avg 83
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Flamengo
#7
W
75-63
75
63
+12
66avg 83
H14/12
Champions League Americas
Obras Sanitarias
#9
W
75-71
75
71
+4
67avg 83
H16/12
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#3
L
94-98
94
98
-4
84avg 83
A21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
99-79
99
79
+20
95avg 83
H07/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-21
27-23
26-13
26-13
22-21
15-12
30-17
22-29
10-24
21-21
20-23
24-14
17-18
34-16
14-19
23-19
28-21
34-29
22-20
25-20
16-21
16-19
22-17
15-25
14-16
16-13
23-11
22-23
17-18
20-21
15-19
23-13
24-28
23-25
14-20
33-25
21-15
21-23
24-22
33-19
166.3Avg total
87.7Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)91.483.1174.6+8.371%
Season at home (7)86.375.3161.6+11.086%
Season away (7)96.691.0187.6+5.657%
Last 10 (10)87.778.6166.3+9.170%
Last 5 (5)82.478.6161.0+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)65.584.5150.0-19.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)91.279.3170.5+11.979%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Cordon
#11
L
81-98
81
98
-17
78avg 72
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
80-102
80
102
-22
68avg 72
H03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
72-96
72
96
-24
58avg 72
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
82-112
82
112
-30
71avg 72
A10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
L
73-83
73
83
-10
55avg 72
H15/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
86-98
86
98
-12
76avg 72
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
63-102
63
102
-39
36avg 72
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
82-103
82
103
-21
75avg 72
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
99-89
99
89
+10
89avg 72
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
75-91
75
91
-16
62avg 72
A09/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-22
19-31
20-20
25-25
23-37
18-19
15-28
24-18
22-23
15-24
16-25
19-24
17-39
26-27
25-22
14-24
15-18
14-21
15-29
29-15
17-22
27-25
31-27
11-24
13-28
14-31
22-25
14-18
23-28
27-28
11-22
21-25
20-18
26-26
24-23
29-22
23-29
13-26
17-23
22-13
176.7Avg total
79.3Scored
97.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)81.098.8179.8-17.87%
Season at home (7)82.196.4178.6-14.314%
Season away (7)79.9101.1181.0-21.30%
Last 10 (10)79.397.4176.7-18.110%
Last 5 (5)81.096.6177.6-15.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)81.796.6178.4-14.926%
vs Similar (3)86.081.7167.7+4.367%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -7.4-7.4Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -5.9-5.9Q3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +0.0+0.0
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -7.4-7.4Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -5.9-5.9Q3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +0.0+0.0
NacionalWelcome
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urunday
#9
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H20/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
62-50
62
50
+12
A04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Flamengo
#7
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H14/12
Champions League Americas
Obras Sanitarias
#9
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H16/12
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#3
L
47-53
47
53
-6
A21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H07/01
Liga Uruguaya
82.6Avg total
42.1Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.641.086.6+4.667%-
Last 30 at home (18)45.137.782.8+7.478%-
Last 30 away (12)46.346.092.3+0.350%-
Last 10 (10)42.140.582.6+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)37.639.877.4-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.041.572.5-10.50%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)46.641.087.6+5.671%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#11
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
41-56
41
56
-15
H03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
43-66
43
66
-23
A10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H15/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
27-59
27
59
-32
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
36-55
36
55
-19
A09/01
Liga Uruguaya
91.1Avg total
38.9Scored
52.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.250.291.4-9.020%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.047.788.7-6.723%-
Last 30 away (17)41.352.193.4-10.818%-
Last 10 (10)38.952.291.1-13.310%-
Last 5 (5)40.652.292.8-11.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)40.751.392.0-10.615%-
vs Similar (3)45.740.386.0+5.367%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 86.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.524.0
53.9%
53.3%48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.67.5
30.5%
33.3%22.5
🏀 Free throws23.716.4
69.2%
70.9%16.4
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.519.5
52.0%
53.3%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.19.2
31.6%
33.3%27.6
🏀 Free throws15.811.9
75.3%
70.9%11.9
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WLWWLWWLWW
Welcome
LWLLLLLLLL
#2
League position
#12
+11.6
Net rating
-22.5
108.7
Offensive rating
97.3
97.1
Defensive rating
119.8
51.0%
Effective FG%
50.0%
46.1%
Opp. effective FG%
57.5%
16.7%
Turnover %
16.1%
32.2%
Off. rebound %
19.1%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.24
30.5%
3-point %
31.6%
56.2%
Assist %
65.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence108.7 · 97.3Defence97.1 · 119.8Shooting51.0% · 50.0%3-point %30.5% · 31.6%Ball care16.7% · 16.1%Off. rebounds32.2% · 19.1%Free throws0.34 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 10%
■ Nacional   ■ Welcome
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Nacional wins
2
Welcome wins
DateGameScore
16/10/25Welcome v Nacional106-117
30/01/25Welcome v Nacional69-117
01/11/24Nacional v Welcome115-64
04/01/19Nacional v Welcome104-85
16/10/18Welcome v Nacional73-75
17/04/18Welcome v Nacional68-70
12/04/18Nacional v Welcome75-89
09/04/18Welcome v Nacional79-85
05/04/18Nacional v Welcome80-77
02/04/18Welcome v Nacional85-67
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/26HGoes99-79
21/12/25AAguada94-98
16/12/25HObras Sanitarias75-71
14/12/25HFlamengo75-63
09/12/25APenarol69-82
04/12/25ACordon109-90
20/11/25HUnion Atletica88-72
14/11/25AMalvin75-82
10/11/25HHebraica y Macabi89-79
07/11/25HUrunday104-70
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/26AUnion Atletica75-91
19/12/25HMalvin99-89
11/12/25ADefensor82-103
09/12/25HUrunday63-102
05/12/25HBigua86-98
15/11/25HGoes73-83
10/11/25AAguada82-112
07/11/25AHebraica y Macabi72-96
03/11/25HPenarol80-102
29/10/25ACordon81-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW71%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayWLWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %71%86%57%
Points / game91.486.396.6
Allowed / game83.175.391.0
Point differential+8.3+11.0+5.6
Avg total174.6161.6187.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%71%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL7%
HomeLLLLW14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %7%14%0%
Points / game81.082.179.9
Allowed / game98.896.4101.1
Point differential-17.8-14.3-21.3
Avg total179.8178.6181.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%14%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol1513287%86.070.7+15.3
2 Nacional1410471%91.483.1+8.3
3 Hebraica y Macabi1510567%83.979.9+3.9
4 Malvin1510567%82.181.0+1.1
5 Aguada149564%94.489.9+4.5
6 Defensor148657%87.985.6+2.3
7 Bigua158753%88.589.8-1.3
8 Urunday157847%91.485.7+5.7
9 Union Atletica156940%82.583.8-1.3
10 Goes1541127%83.792.3-8.5
11 Cordon1521313%81.393.7-12.4
12 Welcome141137%81.098.8-17.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional28342533120
Welcome1429282091
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