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Penarol vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 09 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 82-69
21-16 19-16 17-22 25-15
Position#1
Record9-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game86.7
Allowed / game71.5
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#2
Record9-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game92.5
Allowed / game82.3
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penarol v Nacional
08 Apr 2026
PENA71
NACI78
08 Dec 2025
PENA82
NACI69
18 Jan 2025
PENA85
NACI89
22 Apr 2024
PENA63
NACI67
06 Feb 2024
PENA79
NACI68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
89-79
89
79
+10
81avg 82
H17/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
90-59
90
59
+31
95avg 82
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
102-83
102
83
+19
101avg 82
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
44-48
44
48
-4
38avg 82
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
102-80
102
80
+22
108avg 82
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
103-89
103
89
+14
100avg 82
H08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
L
81-88
81
88
-7
73avg 82
A12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
86-69
86
69
+17
84avg 82
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
85-72
85
72
+13
83avg 82
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
85-58
85
58
+27
84avg 82
H04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-25
21-20
26-22
20-12
22-20
26-16
18-15
24-8
30-9
24-24
29-24
19-26
26-21
18-27
–
–
37-23
19-18
28-15
18-24
20-21
29-24
25-26
29-18
20-19
26-16
18-21
17-32
26-15
14-25
27-17
19-12
22-27
21-20
20-18
22-7
15-21
28-14
22-10
20-13
159.2Avg total
86.7Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.771.5158.3+15.282%
Season at home (5)92.876.2169.0+16.6100%
Season away (6)81.767.7149.3+14.067%
Last 10 (10)86.772.5159.2+14.280%
Last 5 (5)88.075.2163.2+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.589.5168.0-11.00%
vs Similar (3)79.776.0155.7+3.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)85.975.9161.8+10.080%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Welcome
#12
W
117-106
117
106
+11
117avg 84
A16/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
82-79
82
79
+3
68avg 84
H21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
102-86
102
86
+16
98avg 84
A24/10
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
80-61
80
61
+19
72avg 84
H01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
110-93
110
93
+17
101avg 84
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
104-70
104
70
+34
104avg 84
H07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
89-79
89
79
+10
78avg 84
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
64avg 84
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
88-72
88
72
+16
74avg 84
H20/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
109-90
109
90
+19
109avg 84
A04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-23
23-24
34-27
28-32
28-26
22-28
20-11
12-14
21-20
29-27
35-17
17-22
14-16
30-19
20-11
16-15
34-23
27-24
26-24
23-22
25-21
27-23
26-13
26-13
22-21
15-12
30-17
22-29
10-24
21-21
20-23
24-14
17-18
34-16
14-19
23-19
28-21
34-29
22-20
25-20
177.4Avg total
95.6Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)92.582.3174.8+10.382%
Season at home (6)84.274.7158.8+9.583%
Season away (5)102.691.4194.0+11.280%
Last 10 (10)95.681.8177.4+13.890%
Last 5 (5)93.078.6171.6+14.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)62.087.0149.0-25.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (29)90.779.8170.5+10.976%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: +5.0+5.0Q3: +6.5+6.5Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: +1.6+1.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: +5.0+5.0Q3: +6.5+6.5Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: +1.6+1.6
PenarolNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H17/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
54-33
54
33
+21
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
56-41
56
41
+15
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H04/12
Liga Uruguaya
87.1Avg total
46.6Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.639.382.9+4.363%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.639.480.9+2.253%-
Last 30 away (13)46.339.285.5+7.177%-
Last 10 (10)46.640.587.1+6.160%-
Last 5 (5)44.240.484.6+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)41.545.086.5-3.550%-
vs Similar (3)34.737.772.3-3.033%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)44.939.083.9+5.868%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Welcome
#12
W
55-47
55
47
+8
A16/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A24/10
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
61-47
61
47
+14
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H20/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
62-50
62
50
+12
A04/12
Liga Uruguaya
92.9Avg total
49.3Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.941.987.8+4.063%-
Last 30 at home (19)45.439.184.5+6.368%-
Last 30 away (11)46.746.793.5+0.055%-
Last 10 (10)49.343.692.9+5.780%-
Last 5 (5)46.641.287.8+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)30.043.073.0-13.00%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (29)46.441.988.3+4.666%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 79.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.321.8
61.8%
53.3%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.97.8
35.6%
33.3%23.4
🏀 Free throws17.912.3
68.7%
70.9%12.3
They take 57.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 94.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.1
54.3%
53.3%44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.611.7
39.5%
33.3%35.1
🏀 Free throws22.315.3
68.6%
70.9%15.3
They take 70.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WWWLWWLWWW
Nacional
WWLWWWWWWW
#1
League position
#2
+22.8
Net rating
+16.8
118.5
Offensive rating
116.0
95.7
Defensive rating
99.2
58.6%
Effective FG%
56.4%
48.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
15.3%
Turnover %
17.0%
34.4%
Off. rebound %
31.7%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.32
35.6%
3-point %
39.5%
64.9%
Assist %
55.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence118.5 · 116.0Defence95.7 · 99.2Shooting58.6% · 56.4%3-point %35.6% · 39.5%Ball care15.3% · 17.0%Off. rebounds34.4% · 31.7%Free throws0.31 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ Penarol   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Penarol wins
5
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
14/10/25Nacional v Penarol62-87
10/03/25Nacional v Penarol90-72
19/01/25Penarol v Nacional85-89
13/11/24Nacional v Penarol80-78
23/04/24Penarol v Nacional63-67
06/04/24Nacional v Penarol94-78
07/02/24Penarol v Nacional79-68
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25HUrunday85-58
21/11/25HDefensor85-72
18/11/25ABigua86-69
12/11/25AGoes81-88
08/11/25HAguada103-89
03/11/25AWelcome102-80
29/10/25AHebraica y Macabi44-48
23/10/25HCordon102-83
20/10/25AUnion Atletica90-59
17/10/25HMalvin89-79
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25ACordon109-90
20/11/25HUnion Atletica88-72
14/11/25AMalvin75-82
10/11/25HHebraica y Macabi89-79
07/11/25HUrunday104-70
03/11/25ABigua110-93
01/11/25HDefensor80-61
24/10/25AGoes102-86
21/10/25HAguada82-79
16/10/25AWelcome117-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW82%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %82%100%67%
Points / game86.792.881.7
Allowed / game71.576.267.7
Point differential+15.2+16.6+14.0
Avg total158.3169.0149.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+82%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW82%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %82%83%80%
Points / game92.584.2102.6
Allowed / game82.374.791.4
Point differential+10.3+9.5+11.2
Avg total174.8158.8194.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+73%67%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol119282%86.771.5+15.2
2 Nacional119282%92.582.3+10.3
3 Hebraica y Macabi118373%80.373.8+6.5
4 Malvin118373%81.479.8+1.5
5 Aguada106460%95.288.9+6.3
6 Defensor95456%85.385.9-0.6
7 Bigua116555%86.186.3-0.2
8 Urunday115645%90.286.5+3.6
9 Union Atletica113827%79.183.8-4.7
10 Goes113827%80.589.4-8.8
11 Cordon112918%84.196.1-12.0
12 Welcome100100%81.599.8-18.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol2119172582
Nacional1616221569
← all games of the day
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