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Saga vs NeoPhoenix Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 91-96
27-23 30-24 15-17 19-32
Position#12
Record21-20
FormWLLLL
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game82.0
vs
Position#10
Record22-19
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game82.1
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Saga v NeoPhoenix
04 Oct 2026
SAGA89
NEOP93
03 Oct 2026
SAGA61
NEOP97
11 Mar 2026
SAGA91
NEOP96
09 Feb 2025
SAGA83
NEOP102
08 Feb 2025
SAGA82
NEOP95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NeoPhoenix winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
79-73
79
73
+6
65avg 75
A25/01
B League
Shimane
#14
W
95-88
95
88
+7
98avg 75
H28/01
B League
Chiba
#6
W
83-79
83
79
+4
75avg 75
H31/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
76-95
76
95
-19
63avg 75
H01/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
92-67
92
67
+25
94avg 75
A07/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
91-69
91
69
+22
86avg 75
A08/02
B League
Alvark
#8
L
71-78
71
78
-7
57avg 75
A14/02
B League
Alvark
#8
L
83-96
83
96
-13
71avg 75
A15/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
L
87-90
87
90
-3
85avg 75
H07/03
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
L
82-87
82
87
-5
82avg 75
H08/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-23
24-17
13-17
18-16
24-21
26-21
23-29
22-17
15-20
11-22
27-18
30-19
19-23
15-18
22-32
20-22
18-18
33-25
20-16
21-8
24-22
26-22
18-11
23-14
15-13
20-25
27-19
9-21
15-23
23-22
13-22
32-29
25-25
19-16
19-30
24-19
23-29
24-18
22-25
13-15
166.1Avg total
83.9Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)81.682.0163.7-0.451%
Season at home (22)81.182.8163.9-1.750%
Season away (19)82.281.2163.4+1.053%
Last 10 (10)83.982.2166.1+1.750%
Last 5 (5)82.884.0166.8-1.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)76.185.5161.6-9.527%
vs Similar ◀ (10)86.080.1166.1+5.960%
vs Weaker (9)84.076.2160.2+7.878%
This opponent (NeoPhoenix) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeoPhoenixJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeoPhoenix
Date
Competition
Nagasaki
#1
W
95-87
95
87
+8
91avg 79
H25/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
77-68
77
68
+9
74avg 79
A28/01
B League
Shiga
#18
W
93-81
93
81
+12
90avg 79
A31/01
B League
Shiga
#18
L
73-76
73
76
-3
63avg 79
A01/02
B League
Yokohama
#15
W
88-74
88
74
+14
85avg 79
H07/02
B League
Yokohama
#15
W
78-72
78
72
+6
78avg 79
H08/02
B League
Chiba
#6
W
92-81
92
81
+11
87avg 79
H14/02
B League
Chiba
#6
W
104-94
104
94
+10
105avg 79
H15/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
95-91
95
91
+4
91avg 79
A07/03
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
91-69
91
69
+22
94avg 79
A08/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-23
23-17
26-27
20-20
19-12
23-17
17-18
18-21
24-23
20-11
31-16
18-31
15-22
24-26
17-13
17-15
24-24
30-18
11-17
23-15
16-18
21-14
20-19
21-21
23-15
27-24
27-21
15-21
30-22
23-18
26-23
25-31
24-26
25-18
26-31
20-16
23-13
23-16
21-12
24-28
167.9Avg total
88.6Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)83.782.1165.8+1.654%
Season at home (22)85.182.3167.4+2.864%
Season away (19)82.181.8163.9+0.242%
Last 10 (10)88.679.3167.9+9.390%
Last 5 (5)92.081.4173.4+10.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)76.789.7166.4-13.029%
vs Similar ◀ (7)87.789.3177.0-1.643%
vs Weaker (16)86.677.8164.4+8.875%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +6.0+6.0Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -1.8-1.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +6.0+6.0Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -1.8-1.8
SagaNeoPhoenix
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A25/01
B League
Shimane
#14
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H28/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H31/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H01/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
51-43
51
43
+8
A07/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A08/02
B League
Alvark
#8
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A14/02
B League
Alvark
#8
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A15/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H07/03
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H08/03
B League
84.6Avg total
42.3Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.142.282.4-2.143%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.642.881.4-4.129%-
Last 30 away (13)42.141.583.6+0.562%-
Last 10 (10)42.342.384.6+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)42.843.085.8-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)37.642.379.9-4.627%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)40.941.982.8-1.040%-
vs Weaker (9)42.342.684.9-0.267%-
This opponent (NeoPhoenix) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeoPhoenixLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nagasaki
#1
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H25/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A28/01
B League
Shiga
#18
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A31/01
B League
Shiga
#18
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A01/02
B League
Yokohama
#15
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H07/02
B League
Yokohama
#15
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H08/02
B League
Chiba
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H14/02
B League
Chiba
#6
W
53-40
53
40
+13
H15/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A07/03
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A08/03
B League
84.0Avg total
46.3Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.342.587.7+2.867%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.942.689.5+4.281%-
Last 30 away (14)43.442.385.7+1.150%-
Last 10 (10)46.337.784.0+8.690%-
Last 5 (5)47.036.883.8+10.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)39.747.186.9-7.443%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)48.144.993.0+3.371%-
vs Weaker (16)46.439.485.8+7.175%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 84.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.8
55.9%
53.1%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.49.0
30.6%
33.7%27.0
🏀 Free throws21.417.6
82.2%
73.1%17.6
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
NeoPhoenixtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

NeoPhoenix: 88.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.922.3
57.3%
53.1%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.7
34.0%
33.7%26.1
🏀 Free throws24.117.9
74.3%
73.1%17.9
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LLLLWWLWWW
NeoPhoenix
WWWWWWLWWW
#12
League position
#10
+2.6
Net rating
+10.4
99.0
Offensive rating
99.4
96.4
Defensive rating
89.0
51.4%
Effective FG%
54.8%
54.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
11.3%
Turnover %
15.4%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.37
30.6%
3-point %
34.0%
72.9%
Assist %
74.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence99.0 · 99.4Defence96.4 · 89.0Shooting51.4% · 54.8%3-point %30.6% · 34.0%Ball care11.3% · 15.4%Free throws0.33 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Saga   ■ NeoPhoenix
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Saga wins
4
NeoPhoenix wins
DateGameScore
29/10/25NeoPhoenix v Saga73-85
09/02/25Saga v NeoPhoenix83-102
08/02/25Saga v NeoPhoenix82-95
17/12/23NeoPhoenix v Saga108-77
16/12/23NeoPhoenix v Saga105-95
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HUtsunomiya Brex82-87
07/03/26HUtsunomiya Brex87-90
15/02/26AAlvark83-96
14/02/26AAlvark71-78
08/02/26AToyama91-69
07/02/26AToyama92-67
01/02/26HChiba76-95
31/01/26HChiba83-79
28/01/26HShimane95-88
25/01/26AAltiri Chiba79-73
NeoPhoenixlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26ANagoya Fighting Eagles91-69
07/03/26ANagoya Fighting Eagles95-91
15/02/26HChiba104-94
14/02/26HChiba92-81
08/02/26HYokohama78-72
07/02/26HYokohama88-74
01/02/26AShiga73-76
31/01/26AShiga93-81
28/01/26AAltiri Chiba77-68
25/01/26HNagasaki95-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL51%
HomeWWLLL50%
AwayWWWLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412219
Win %51%50%53%
Points / game81.681.182.2
Allowed / game82.082.881.2
Point differential-0.4-1.7+1.0
Avg total163.7163.9163.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%23%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
NeoPhoenix
B League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW54%
HomeWWWWW64%
AwayWWLWW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412219
Win %54%64%42%
Points / game83.785.182.1
Allowed / game82.182.381.8
Point differential+1.6+2.8+0.2
Avg total165.8167.4163.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%45%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)50% (2)17% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki4133880%92.078.4+13.6
2 Diamond Dolphins4132978%83.472.6+10.9
3 Utsunomiya Brex41311076%85.379.6+5.7
4 Chiba41291271%82.776.0+6.7
5 Alvark41291271%80.976.7+4.2
6 Hokkaido41291271%88.584.9+3.6
7 Ryukyu41281368%81.574.7+6.8
8 SeaHorses Mikawa41281368%84.578.0+6.4
9 Gunma41251661%82.374.6+7.7
10 Hiroshima D.41251661%86.482.7+3.7
11 Sendai41241759%80.679.1+1.4
12 NeoPhoenix41221954%83.782.1+1.6
13 Shimane41212051%81.480.5+0.9
14 Saga41212051%81.682.0-0.4
15 Sun Rockers Shibuya41172441%76.580.9-4.5
16 Osaka41152637%79.782.2-2.5
17 Nagoya Fighting Eagles41152637%80.883.3-2.5
18 Yokohama41152637%78.682.5-4.0
19 Koshigaya Alphas41152637%73.380.2-6.9
20 Altiri Chiba41142734%79.583.7-4.1
21 Shiga41142734%80.285.9-5.7
22 Ibaraki Robots41122929%74.980.0-5.1
23 Kyoto41122929%71.380.5-9.2
24 Toyama41103124%81.690.0-8.4
25 Brave Thunders41103124%75.584.0-8.5
26 Akita4173417%73.885.1-11.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga2730151991
NeoPhoenix2324173296
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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