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Sao Jose vs Pato Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 29 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Scheduled
Position#12
Record3-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game81.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
5.7/10
Above normal
Position#15
Record2-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game72.6
Allowed / game81.5
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Lineu de Moura
Other2026-27
Meetings · Sao Jose v Pato
29 Dec 2026
SAO v PATO
upcoming
22 Nov 2025
SAO 86
PATO71
18 Apr 2025
SAO 77
PATO89
06 Nov 2023
SAO 100
PATO69
10 Jan 2023
SAO 96
PATO69
20 Nov 2019
SAO 81
PATO71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Jose win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pato win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao JoseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJose
Date
Competition
Mogi
#8
L
70-75
70
75
-5
56avg 69
H22/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
75-79
75
79
-4
59avg 69
A25/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
70-81
70
81
-11
60avg 69
A27/04
NBB
Franca
#6
L
59-90
59
90
-31
42avg 69
A19/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
68-83
68
83
-15
54avg 69
A21/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
83-97
83
97
-14
72avg 69
H28/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
96-53
96
53
+43
no box
H02/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
90-81
90
81
+9
no box
A05/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
87-103
87
103
-16
no box
A07/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
79-65
79
65
+14
no box
H13/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
14-21
16-20
15-18
17-16
21-25
18-15
19-23
18-25
17-17
22-19
13-20
15-17
17-25
12-23
15-25
22-23
20-11
17-25
9-24
16-26
27-23
17-23
23-25
27-11
31-12
24-15
14-15
31-16
19-17
28-13
12-35
21-22
19-28
16-30
31-23
26-22
16-20
17-7
20-16
158.4Avg total
77.7Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.381.7162.0-1.443%
Season at home (3)86.071.7157.7+14.367%
Season away (4)76.089.2165.2-13.225%
Last 10 (10)77.780.7158.4-3.030%
Last 5 (5)87.079.8166.8+7.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)79.490.2169.6-10.912%
vs Similar (11)76.380.4156.6-4.136%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)88.778.8167.5+9.982%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
55-88
55
88
-33
50avg 61
A16/04
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
71-92
71
92
-21
58avg 61
A18/04
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
74-80
74
80
-6
58avg 61
H21/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
W
89-88
89
88
+1
36avg 61
H24/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
65-86
65
86
-21
52avg 61
A27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
68-76
68
76
-8
48avg 61
A29/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
66-80
66
80
-14
no box
H07/11
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
78-98
78
98
-20
no box
H09/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
79-77
79
77
+2
no box
A12/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
62-67
62
67
-5
no box
A14/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-25
16-19
16-27
11-17
15-24
18-27
18-28
20-13
10-13
18-20
13-30
33-17
22-26
16-22
27-13
24-27
14-24
18-24
16-23
17-15
17-17
18-21
10-19
23-19
18-24
19-16
13-24
16-16
26-28
16-26
19-19
17-25
15-21
20-19
15-22
29-15
14-18
19-22
14-15
15-12
153.9Avg total
70.7Scored
83.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)72.681.5154.1-8.925%
Season at home (4)76.886.5163.2-9.825%
Season away (4)68.576.5145.0-8.025%
Last 10 (10)70.783.2153.9-12.520%
Last 5 (5)70.679.6150.2-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)69.882.7152.5-13.05%
vs Similar (8)77.176.8153.9+0.438%
vs Weaker (1)79.077.0156.0+2.0100%
This opponent (Sao Jose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: -5.3-5.3Q4: +2.9+2.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: -5.3-5.3Q4: +2.9+2.9
Sao JosePato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao JoseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mogi
#8
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H22/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A25/04
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A27/04
NBB
Franca
#6
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A19/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A21/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H28/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
58-23
58
23
+35
H02/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
50-33
50
33
+17
A05/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A07/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H13/11
NBB
81.2Avg total
41.9Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.141.283.3+0.950%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.043.188.1+1.957%-
Last 30 away (16)39.539.579.0+0.044%-
Last 10 (10)41.939.381.2+2.640%-
Last 5 (5)46.639.486.0+7.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)40.946.287.1-5.438%-
vs Similar (11)39.641.180.7-1.545%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)45.437.683.0+7.764%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A16/04
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A18/04
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H21/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H24/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
32-48
32
48
-16
A27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A29/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H07/11
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H09/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/11
NBB
77.7Avg total
34.1Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.340.676.9-4.330%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.438.676.1-1.238%-
Last 30 away (14)34.942.977.8-7.921%-
Last 10 (10)34.143.677.7-9.50%-
Last 5 (5)36.442.478.8-6.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)34.541.976.4-7.314%-
vs Similar (8)41.037.478.4+3.675%-
vs Weaker (1)35.040.075.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Sao Jose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Josetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Jose: 72.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.316.8
42.7%
49.8%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.98.4
30.1%
31.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws20.714.1
68.1%
71.3%14.1
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 61.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.1 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.015.6
47.3%
49.8%31.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.67.6
25.7%
31.6%22.8
🏀 Free throws11.37.1
62.8%
71.3%7.1
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Jose
WLWWLLLLLL
Pato
LWLLLLWLLL
#12
League position
#15
-9.8
Net rating
-23.7
82.2
Offensive rating
70.9
92.1
Defensive rating
94.5
43.8%
Effective FG%
43.1%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
15.0%
Turnover %
20.2%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.18
30.1%
3-point %
25.7%
63.9%
Assist %
75.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence82.2 · 70.9Defence92.1 · 94.5Shooting43.8% · 43.1%3-point %30.1% · 25.7%Ball care15.0% · 20.2%Free throws0.31 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)30% · 20%
■ Sao Jose   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Sao Jose wins
2
Pato wins
DateGameScore
18/03/26Pato v Sao Jose72-81
22/11/25Sao Jose v Pato86-71
18/04/25Sao Jose v Pato77-89
19/12/24Pato v Sao Jose85-81
05/02/24Pato v Sao Jose80-88
06/11/23Sao Jose v Pato100-69
10/01/23Sao Jose v Pato96-69
17/10/22Pato v Sao Jose61-71
20/11/19Sao Jose v Pato81-71
Sao Joselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HPaulistano79-65
07/11/26APinheiros87-103
05/11/26AOsasco90-81
02/11/26HCearense96-53
28/10/26HUnifacisa83-97
21/10/26ABauru68-83
19/10/26AFranca59-90
27/04/26AMogi70-81
25/04/26AMogi75-79
22/04/26HMogi70-75
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AUniao Corinthians62-67
12/11/26ACaxias do Sul79-77
09/11/26HBauru78-98
07/11/26HFlamengo66-80
29/10/26ACruzeiro68-76
27/10/26AMinas65-86
24/10/26HBotafogo89-88
21/10/26HPaulistano74-80
18/04/26APaulistano71-92
16/04/26APinheiros55-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Jose
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW43%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%67%25%
Points / game80.386.076.0
Allowed / game81.771.789.2
Point differential-1.4+14.3-13.2
Avg total162.0157.7165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pato
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%25%25%
Points / game72.676.868.5
Allowed / game81.586.576.5
Point differential-8.9-9.8-8.0
Avg total154.1163.2145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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