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Sao Paulo vs Botafogo Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 82-71
27-19 18-14 20-25 17-13
Position#13
Record8-6
FormWLLWL
Points / game79.4
Allowed / game78.6
vs
Position#18
Record4-10
FormLWLLL
Points / game70.1
Allowed / game79.4
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Botafogo
15 Dec 2024
SAO 82
BOTA71
04 Dec 2023
SAO 78
BOTA77
18 Jan 2020
SAO 83
BOTA68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Botafogo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#12
W
86-84
86
84
+2
86avg 75
H30/10
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
74-78
74
78
-4
69avg 75
A01/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
69-76
69
76
-7
70avg 75
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
77-75
77
75
+2
68avg 75
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
52avg 75
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
72avg 75
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
84-88
84
88
-4
79avg 75
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
84-87
84
87
-3
83avg 75
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
91avg 75
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
70-80
70
80
-10
55avg 75
H12/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
22-19
16-16
24-22
19-14
19-17
19-24
17-23
10-22
20-13
24-22
15-19
25-18
13-18
20-17
19-22
10-15
13-25
23-20
22-19
17-13
20-16
15-24
21-20
15-22
21-23
26-20
22-23
23-21
17-12
21-22
23-32
15-21
17-18
28-19
29-21
12-25
20-20
21-19
17-16
158.6Avg total
78.1Scored
80.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)79.478.6157.9+0.857%
Season at home (8)79.476.9156.2+2.562%
Season away (6)79.380.8160.2-1.550%
Last 10 (10)78.180.5158.6-2.440%
Last 5 (5)81.482.6164.0-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)82.484.2166.6-1.957%
vs Similar (10)78.279.0157.2-0.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)80.877.5158.3+3.350%
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
77-52
77
52
+25
74avg 65
A27/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
74-90
74
90
-16
64avg 65
A30/10
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
70-88
70
88
-18
51avg 65
A02/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
71-80
71
80
-9
61avg 65
H06/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
63-69
63
69
-6
58avg 65
H10/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
67-91
67
91
-24
58avg 65
A13/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
68-66
68
66
+2
54avg 65
H15/11
NBB
Pato
#14
L
78-98
78
98
-20
57avg 65
A28/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
68-95
68
95
-27
52avg 65
H02/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
67-89
67
89
-22
56avg 65
H05/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-10
20-17
22-11
18-14
12-27
26-16
14-29
22-18
23-23
12-19
19-19
16-27
20-23
20-20
16-18
15-19
25-15
15-19
13-17
10-18
16-22
14-24
14-18
23-27
21-11
9-19
18-20
20-16
20-27
11-20
14-25
33-26
13-25
19-21
20-20
16-29
18-33
12-27
20-11
17-18
152.1Avg total
70.3Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)70.179.4149.4-9.329%
Season at home (7)66.078.9144.9-12.914%
Season away (7)74.179.9154.0-5.743%
Last 10 (10)70.381.8152.1-11.520%
Last 5 (5)69.687.8157.4-18.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)75.788.5164.2-12.820%
vs Similar (4)74.069.5143.5+4.550%
vs Weaker (1)108.0106.0214.0+2.0100%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: -2.2-2.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: -2.2-2.2
Sao PauloBotafogo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#12
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H30/10
NBB
Mogi
#16
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A01/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
23-40
23
40
-17
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
32-45
32
45
-13
H12/12
NBB
73.1Avg total
35.2Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.540.378.8-1.937%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.638.678.2+0.950%-
Last 30 away (16)37.541.879.3-4.325%-
Last 10 (10)35.237.973.1-2.740%-
Last 5 (5)35.438.273.6-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.842.181.9-2.336%-
vs Similar (10)36.439.876.2-3.430%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)38.837.276.0+1.750%-
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
37-27
37
27
+10
A27/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A30/10
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A02/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H06/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H10/11
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A13/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
D
30-30
30
30
+0
H15/11
NBB
Pato
#14
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A28/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H02/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
30-60
30
60
-30
H05/12
NBB
76.1Avg total
34.3Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.143.981.0-6.730%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.544.180.6-7.629%-
Last 30 away (16)37.743.681.3-5.931%-
Last 10 (10)34.341.876.1-7.520%-
Last 5 (5)30.645.876.4-15.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)36.945.682.4-8.724%-
vs Similar (4)36.032.568.5+3.550%-
vs Weaker (1)48.047.095.0+1.0100%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 77.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.9
56.4%
50.9%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.77.4
30.0%
33.0%22.2
🏀 Free throws21.215.3
72.2%
72.7%15.3
They take 60.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 69.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.217.6
44.9%
50.9%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.28.0
30.5%
33.0%24.0
🏀 Free throws16.010.1
63.1%
72.7%10.1
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
LWLLWLWLLW
Botafogo
LLLWLLLLLW
#13
League position
#18
-2.9
Net rating
-15.8
102.7
Offensive rating
93.4
105.6
Defensive rating
109.2
51.7%
Effective FG%
45.3%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
55.0%
19.9%
Turnover %
16.5%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
24.5%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.24
30.0%
3-point %
30.5%
64.8%
Assist %
61.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 93.4Defence105.6 · 109.2Shooting51.7% · 45.3%3-point %30.0% · 30.5%Ball care19.9% · 16.5%Off. rebounds26.7% · 24.5%Free throws0.35 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Botafogo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Sao Paulo wins
1
Botafogo wins
DateGameScore
25/03/24Botafogo v Sao Paulo83-79
04/12/23Sao Paulo v Botafogo78-77
18/01/20Sao Paulo v Botafogo83-68
12/11/19Botafogo v Sao Paulo78-85
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/12/24HUniao Corinthians70-80
10/12/24HCaxias do Sul89-79
06/12/24HVasco84-87
17/11/24AUnifacisa84-88
14/11/24ACearense80-79 OT
11/11/24ASao Jose68-79
07/11/24HFlamengo77-75
05/11/24HPinheiros69-76
01/11/24AMogi74-78
30/10/24HPaulistano86-84
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/12/24HBrasilia67-89
02/12/24HMinas68-95
28/11/24APato78-98
15/11/24HVasco68-66
13/11/24AFlamengo67-91
10/11/24HCaxias do Sul63-69
06/11/24HUniao Corinthians71-80
02/11/24APaulistano70-88
30/10/24AUnifacisa74-90
27/10/24ACearense77-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL57%
HomeLWLWL62%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1486
Win %57%62%50%
Points / game79.479.479.3
Allowed / game78.676.980.8
Point differential+0.8+2.5-1.5
Avg total157.9156.2160.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%38%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)67% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %7%0%17%
Botafogo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL29%
HomeLLWLL14%
AwayWLLLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %29%14%43%
Points / game70.166.074.1
Allowed / game79.478.979.9
Point differential-9.3-12.9-5.7
Avg total149.4144.9154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%0%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas1513287%83.069.3+13.7
2 Flamengo1512380%83.271.0+12.2
3 Brasilia1410471%82.678.8+3.9
4 Bauru1410471%79.477.7+1.6
5 Franca159660%80.577.5+3.0
6 Vasco159660%74.571.7+2.9
7 Pinheiros148657%74.172.7+1.4
8 Sao Paulo148657%79.478.6+0.8
9 Uniao Corinthians158753%78.180.6-2.5
10 Sao Jose157847%74.574.3+0.1
11 Unifacisa167944%74.876.6-1.8
12 Paulistano146843%75.973.1+2.7
13 Corinthians Paulista145936%81.082.4-1.4
14 Pato145936%81.183.2-2.1
15 Mogi1551033%70.378.3-8.0
16 Botafogo1441029%70.179.4-9.3
17 Caxias do Sul1531220%70.778.3-7.6
18 Cearense1631319%68.377.4-9.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo2718201782
Botafogo1914251371
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