PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Sao Paulo vs Minas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 12 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 71-67
16-11 11-16 25-16 19-24
Position#13
Record11-21
FormLLLLL
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game80.1
vs
Position#1
Record28-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game71.1
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Minas
12 Apr 2025
SAO 71
MINA67
08 May 2024
SAO 86
MINA84
06 May 2024
SAO 105
MINA74
23 Nov 2023
SAO 75
MINA83
27 Dec 2022
SAO 100
MINA83
04 Jan 2022
SAO 91
MINA87
15 May 2021
SAO 80
MINA79
12 May 2021
SAO 90
MINA85
25 Feb 2021
SAO 90
MINA92
02 Nov 2019
SAO 75
MINA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
66-90
66
90
-24
50avg 72
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 72
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 72
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 72
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
78-88
78
88
-10
65avg 72
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 72
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 72
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 72
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 72
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
84avg 72
A05/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
14-31
18-18
16-19
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
15-23
16-18
17-31
30-16
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
19-25
25-27
22-16
19-18
156.7Avg total
73.3Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)76.280.1156.3-4.034%
Season at home (15)76.077.3153.3-1.347%
Season away (17)76.382.6158.9-6.424%
Last 10 (10)73.383.4156.7-10.110%
Last 5 (5)75.086.2161.2-11.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)72.080.1152.1-8.122%
vs Similar (14)76.681.9158.5-5.229%
vs Weaker (6)77.378.3155.7-1.033%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
60-67
60
67
-7
47avg 77
A08/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
W
79-70
79
70
+9
70avg 77
H12/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
74-79
74
79
-5
66avg 77
H13/03
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#3
W
94-70
94
70
+24
94avg 77
H19/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
88-70
88
70
+18
88avg 77
H26/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
92-81
92
81
+11
93avg 77
H29/03
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
77-63
77
63
+14
72avg 77
A01/04
NBB
Pato
#14
W
75-72
75
72
+3
66avg 77
A03/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
76-69
76
69
+7
66avg 77
H07/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
97-59
97
59
+38
98avg 77
H09/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-17
16-20
19-14
8-16
28-23
11-16
20-14
20-17
21-32
19-10
10-23
24-14
27-23
20-15
22-21
25-11
28-17
22-18
18-17
20-18
24-23
22-17
27-20
19-21
20-25
29-13
11-9
17-16
21-15
12-17
17-20
25-20
22-15
19-23
16-19
19-12
22-21
21-5
31-22
23-11
151.2Avg total
81.2Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)82.971.1154.0+11.888%
Season at home (17)84.468.9153.4+15.594%
Season away (15)81.273.5154.7+7.780%
Last 10 (10)81.270.0151.2+11.280%
Last 5 (5)83.468.8152.2+14.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)61.064.0125.0-3.00%
vs Similar (3)82.367.0149.3+15.3100%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)79.572.4151.9+7.280%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: +3.7+3.7Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +4.4+4.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: +3.7+3.7Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +4.4+4.4
Sao PauloMinas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A05/04
NBB
79.2Avg total
36.0Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.940.277.1-3.237%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.939.476.4-2.536%-
Last 30 away (16)36.940.877.8-3.938%-
Last 10 (10)36.043.279.2-7.220%-
Last 5 (5)38.447.686.0-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)34.239.673.8-5.322%-
vs Similar (14)38.240.478.6-2.243%-
vs Weaker (6)37.841.279.0-3.333%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A08/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H12/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H13/03
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#3
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H19/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H26/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H29/03
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
49-38
49
38
+11
A01/04
NBB
Pato
#14
W
33-32
33
32
+1
A03/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H07/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
43-26
43
26
+17
H09/04
NBB
78.6Avg total
42.1Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.736.976.6+2.957%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.536.677.2+3.963%-
Last 30 away (11)38.437.375.6+1.145%-
Last 10 (10)42.136.578.6+5.670%-
Last 5 (5)42.434.877.2+7.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)30.025.055.0+5.0100%-
vs Similar (3)44.332.777.0+11.7100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)39.737.877.5+1.952%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 72.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.917.0
50.1%
50.9%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.38.0
31.6%
33.0%24.0
🏀 Free throws20.514.1
68.8%
72.7%14.1
They take 59.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 80.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.517.9
50.4%
50.9%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.611.0
37.2%
33.0%33.0
🏀 Free throws15.611.8
75.6%
72.7%11.8
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
LLLLLLLWLL
Minas
WWWWWWWLWL
#13
League position
#1
-14.2
Net rating
+16.6
97.6
Offensive rating
111.7
111.8
Defensive rating
95.1
49.0%
Effective FG%
52.8%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
47.3%
19.0%
Turnover %
17.9%
23.6%
Off. rebound %
35.3%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.24
31.6%
3-point %
37.2%
71.6%
Assist %
58.8%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence97.6 · 111.7Defence111.8 · 95.1Shooting49.0% · 52.8%3-point %31.6% · 37.2%Ball care19.0% · 17.9%Off. rebounds23.6% · 35.3%Free throws0.35 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)10% · 80%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Minas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Sao Paulo wins
7
Minas wins
DateGameScore
25/01/25Minas v Sao Paulo82-66
23/12/24Minas v Sao Paulo77-63
13/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo98-67
11/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo104-79
08/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas86-84
06/05/24Sao Paulo v Minas105-74
03/05/24Minas v Sao Paulo84-59
15/02/24Minas v Sao Paulo86-94
23/11/23Sao Paulo v Minas75-83
14/03/23Minas v Sao Paulo87-76
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/25ABotafogo85-86
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
08/03/25AVasco78-88
04/03/25HCearense75-79
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
04/02/25HCorinthians Paulista66-90
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/04/25HBotafogo97-59
07/04/25HVasco76-69
03/04/25APato75-72
01/04/25ABrasilia77-63
29/03/25HUniao Corinthians92-81
26/03/25HCaxias do Sul88-70
19/03/25HFlamengo94-70
13/03/25HInstituto de Cordoba74-79
12/03/25HInstituto de Cordoba79-70
08/03/25AInstituto de Cordoba60-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL34%
HomeLLWLL47%
AwayLLLLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321517
Win %34%47%24%
Points / game76.276.076.3
Allowed / game80.177.382.6
Point differential-4.0-1.3-6.4
Avg total156.3153.3158.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%27%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (14)50% (6)38% (8)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Minas
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW88%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWWWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321715
Win %88%94%80%
Points / game82.984.481.2
Allowed / game71.168.973.5
Point differential+11.8+15.5+7.7
Avg total154.0153.4154.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%71%53%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (5)100% (2)100% (3)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3228488%82.971.1+11.8
2 Flamengo3225778%84.475.2+9.2
3 Franca3223972%84.475.6+8.8
4 Brasilia32191359%81.680.1+1.5
5 Bauru31181358%78.578.3+0.3
6 Uniao Corinthians32181456%78.779.3-0.6
7 Vasco33181555%76.776.2+0.5
8 Pinheiros32171553%76.475.6+0.8
9 Sao Jose33171652%78.277.8+0.4
10 Unifacisa33161748%75.475.3+0.1
11 Corinthians Paulista32151747%80.179.1+1.0
12 Paulistano32141844%78.176.5+1.6
13 Pato32122038%81.483.3-1.9
14 Sao Paulo32112134%76.280.1-4.0
15 Caxias do Sul32112134%73.980.4-6.5
16 Mogi33102330%74.081.3-7.3
17 Botafogo3292328%73.182.1-9.0
18 Cearense3392427%71.878.2-6.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo1611251971
Minas1116162467
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.