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Tobol Kostanay 2 vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 17 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 07:00
Final 77-55
19-11 23-15 17-13 18-16
Position#12
Record6-21
FormLLLWW
Points / game69.4
Allowed / game82.6
vs
Position#14
Record2-25
FormLLLLL
Points / game56.6
Allowed / game87.6
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Tobol Kostanay 2 v Pavlodar
17 Apr 2026
TOBO77
PAVL55
15 Apr 2026
TOBO80
PAVL67
22 Mar 2016
TOBO56
PAVL58
18 Feb 2016
TOBO61
PAVL56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol Kostanay 2 winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tobol Kostanay 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
88-56
88
56
+32
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
45-70
45
70
-25
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
51-85
51
85
-34
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
63-85
63
85
-22
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
46-95
46
95
-49
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
61-110
61
110
-49
H10/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
65-83
65
83
-18
A14/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
80-67
80
67
+13
H15/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A16/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-19
23-15
22-9
18-13
4-29
9-20
9-11
23-10
20-22
14-30
17-21
0-12
19-18
19-18
12-28
13-21
21-21
17-24
28-26
20-21
8-32
13-19
8-23
17-21
15-27
22-23
6-32
18-28
15-17
18-23
10-22
22-21
29-24
21-19
17-8
13-16
20-20
27-26
24-25
17-14
150.1Avg total
67.3Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)69.482.6152.0-13.222%
Season at home (12)70.682.0152.6-11.433%
Season away (15)68.583.1151.5-14.613%
Last 10 (10)67.382.8150.1-15.530%
Last 5 (5)68.088.0156.0-20.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)65.689.6155.2-24.16%
vs Similar (8)68.674.2142.9-5.625%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)79.859.4139.2+20.480%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
57-86
57
86
-29
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
61-98
61
98
-37
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H16/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-30
11-15
15-23
17-18
23-29
12-23
16-23
10-23
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
24-29
19-21
8-17
16-13
14-24
20-7
14-17
22-26
145.4Avg total
61.5Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)56.687.6144.2-31.17%
Season at home (14)58.183.1141.3-25.014%
Season away (13)54.892.5147.3-37.60%
Last 10 (10)61.583.9145.4-22.40%
Last 5 (5)63.877.4141.2-13.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)57.590.6148.1-33.00%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: -5.3-5.3Q1: -10.1-10.1Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: -5.2-5.2Q3: -6.9-6.9Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -1.9-1.9
Tobol Kostanay 2Pavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tobol Kostanay 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H21/01
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
13-49
13
49
-36
A02/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
21-51
21
51
-30
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H10/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H15/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A16/04
Higher League
80.5Avg total
35.9Scored
44.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.142.578.6-6.433%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.842.380.1-4.536%-
Last 30 away (16)34.742.777.4-8.031%-
Last 10 (10)35.944.680.5-8.740%-
Last 5 (5)37.646.083.6-8.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)33.847.581.2-13.718%-
vs Similar (8)36.139.875.9-3.638%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)44.230.074.2+14.280%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
L
25-45
25
45
-20
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H16/04
Higher League
75.2Avg total
30.8Scored
44.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.247.075.2-18.717%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.443.173.5-12.733%-
Last 30 away (15)26.150.876.9-24.70%-
Last 10 (10)30.844.475.2-13.620%-
Last 5 (5)33.639.473.0-5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)27.847.975.8-20.114%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tobol Kostanay 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay 2: 68.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.1 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.816.6
40.6%
49.5%33.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.98.8
28.4%
28.5%26.3
🏀 Free throws13.39.1
68.3%
63.9%9.1
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 66.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀65%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀10%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 65% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.9 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.421.7
38.5%
49.5%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.75.4
25.0%
28.5%16.3
🏀 Free throws14.66.9
47.1%
63.9%6.9
They take 78.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/7 games with a box score before 17 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tobol Kostanay 2
WWLLLLLLLW
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLL
#12
League position
#14
-12.3
Net rating
-17.8
86.6
Offensive rating
78.8
98.9
Defensive rating
96.6
41.5%
Effective FG%
38.2%
45.8%
Opp. effective FG%
45.7%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.19
28.4%
3-point %
25.0%
54.8%
Assist %
31.1%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence86.6 · 78.8Defence98.9 · 96.6Shooting41.5% · 38.2%3-point %28.4% · 25.0%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.19 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)30% · 0%
■ Tobol Kostanay 2   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Tobol Kostanay 2 wins
1
Pavlodar wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/04/26AKaraganda88-85
15/04/26HPavlodar80-67
14/04/26AKaraganda65-83
10/03/26HAktobe61-110
09/03/26AAktobe46-95
05/03/26HCHAMP1ON86-92
04/03/26ABC Almaty 263-85
03/03/26HCHAMP1ON51-85
02/03/26ABC Almaty 245-70
21/01/26HArlans88-56
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/04/26HChelSU Kostanay70-74
15/04/26ATobol Kostanay 267-80
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
13/02/26AAiRom61-98
12/02/26HArlans57-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tobol Kostanay 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW22%
HomeWLLLW33%
AwayLLLLW13%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271215
Win %22%33%13%
Points / game69.470.668.5
Allowed / game82.682.083.1
Point differential-13.2-11.4-14.6
Avg total152.0152.6151.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%33%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)-20% (5)
Overtime %7%0%13%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL7%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271413
Win %7%14%0%
Points / game56.658.154.8
Allowed / game87.683.192.5
Point differential-31.1-25.0-37.6
Avg total144.2141.3147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+4%7%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan28280100%87.459.6+27.8
2 Shymkent2825389%94.768.8+26.0
3 Aktobe2823582%83.067.5+15.6
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2722581%86.061.2+24.9
5 BC Almaty 22718967%83.373.5+9.8
6 Atyrau 228171161%76.570.6+5.9
7 ChelSU Kostanay28151354%75.178.4-3.4
8 CHAMP1ON27141352%74.374.4-0.1
9 Karaganda28131546%80.278.5+1.7
10 Tigers-KazATU27101737%68.176.4-8.3
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 Tobol Kostanay 22762122%69.482.6-13.2
13 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
14 Pavlodar272257%56.687.6-31.1
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tobol Kostanay 21923171877
Pavlodar1115131655
← all games of the day
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