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Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 30 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:30
Scheduled
Position#325
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game78.0
vs
Position#228
Record2-2
FormLWLLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game79.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Troy v Arkansas State
30 Jan 2027
TROY v ARKA
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
TROY99
ARKA74
10 Mar 2025
TROY94
ARKA81
11 Jan 2025
TROY78
ARKA84
15 Feb 2024
TROY71
ARKA82
02 Mar 2023
TROY63
ARKA59
07 Jan 2023
TROY66
ARKA54
10 Feb 2022
TROY79
ARKA77
25 Jan 2020
TROY62
ARKA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
54-65
54
65
-11
A21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
78-59
78
59
+19
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H08/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H09/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
47-76
47
76
-29
A19/03
NCAA
UMass
#168
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H03/11
NCAA
Florida State
#232
L
68-91
68
91
-23
A07/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#298
W
74-69 OT
74
69
+5
H11/11
NCAA
NC State
#46
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-33
28-32
27-23
51-36
37-29
43-36
41-28
37-42
38-25
39-36
25-41
22-35
28-38
32-33
26-37
42-54
29-37
36-28
27-36
35-45
138.6Avg total
67.8Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)66.078.0144.0-12.025%
Season at home (2)67.070.0137.0-3.050%
Season away (2)65.086.0151.0-21.00%
Last 10 (10)67.870.8138.6-3.050%
Last 5 (5)62.277.6139.8-15.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)65.076.2141.2-11.233%
vs Similar (9)72.071.3143.3+0.756%
vs Weaker (15)80.368.7148.9+11.680%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
102-94
102
94
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
77-80
77
80
-3
H06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
71-70
71
70
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
86-101
86
101
-15
A07/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#198
L
65-82
65
82
-17
H11/11
NCAA
Dillard
#430
W
99-65
99
65
+34
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-32
42-51
36-33
43-29
56-49
46-45
53-44
36-40
37-22
44-36
34-42
43-38
36-35
35-35
34-51
52-50
34-54
31-28
48-33
51-32
162.5Avg total
83.7Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.279.5159.8+0.850%
Season at home (3)78.372.3150.7+6.067%
Season away (1)86.0101.0187.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)83.778.8162.5+4.960%
Last 5 (5)79.679.6159.2+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)78.787.7166.3-9.033%
vs Similar (10)81.675.8157.4+5.860%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)82.875.2158.0+7.667%
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: +1.4+1.42nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +3.9+3.9
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: +1.4+1.42nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +3.9+3.9
TroyArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
27-23
27
23
+4
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H08/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H09/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A19/03
NCAA
UMass
#168
L
28-38
28
38
-10
H03/11
NCAA
Florida State
#232
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#298
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H11/11
NCAA
NC State
#46
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A14/11
NCAA
63.1Avg total
30.4Scored
32.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.132.366.4+1.947%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.829.365.1+6.475%-
Last 30 away (14)32.335.667.9-3.414%-
Last 10 (10)30.432.763.1-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)27.037.864.8-10.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)28.336.364.7-8.017%-
vs Similar (9)33.434.768.1-1.244%-
vs Weaker (15)36.929.266.1+7.760%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A07/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#198
L
34-54
34
54
-20
H11/11
NCAA
Dillard
#430
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H15/11
NCAA
80.4Avg total
40.9Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.735.375.1+4.470%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.734.174.7+6.672%-
Last 30 away (12)38.337.275.6+1.167%-
Last 10 (10)40.939.580.4+1.470%-
Last 5 (5)37.243.080.2-5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)35.746.782.3-11.033%-
vs Similar (10)39.631.771.3+7.980%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)39.336.375.7+3.067%-
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Troy wins
4
Arkansas State wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Troy v Arkansas State99-74
08/01/26Arkansas State v Troy86-74
10/03/25Troy v Arkansas State94-81
16/02/25Arkansas State v Troy70-71
11/01/25Troy v Arkansas State78-84
23/02/24Arkansas State v Troy79-71
16/02/24Troy v Arkansas State71-82
02/03/23Troy v Arkansas State63-59
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANC State62-81
11/11/26HLoyola Marymount74-69 OT
07/11/26AFlorida State68-91
03/11/26HUMass60-71
19/03/26ANebraska47-76
09/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-61
08/03/26HSouthern Miss78-70
28/02/26HLouisiana Monroe80-65
25/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette78-59
21/02/26ASouth Alabama54-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HDillard99-65
11/11/26HUT Martin65-82
07/11/26AAlabama86-101
03/11/26HToledo71-70
06/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-80
28/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette81-58
25/02/26HSouthern Miss89-84
21/02/26ALouisiana Monroe102-94
20/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette79-62
14/02/26HSouth Alabama88-92 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game66.067.065.0
Allowed / game78.070.086.0
Point differential-12.0-3.0-21.0
Avg total144.0137.0151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %25%50%0%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLW50%
HomeWLW67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game80.278.386.0
Allowed / game79.572.3101.0
Point differential+0.8+6.0-15.0
Avg total159.8150.7187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
10 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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