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Arkansas State vs Troy Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 70-71
34-30 36-41
Position#54
Record19-7
FormWWLLW
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game69.8
vs
Troy 🏆
USA
Position#68
Record16-9
FormWWLLW
Points / game72.9
Allowed / game65.0
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Arkansas State v Troy
07 Jan 2026
ARKA86
TROY74
15 Feb 2025
ARKA70
TROY71
22 Feb 2024
ARKA79
TROY71
16 Feb 2023
ARKA62
TROY67
11 Jan 2020
ARKA76
TROY68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Troy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#68
W
84-78
84
78
+6
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
85-59
85
59
+26
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H24/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
81-68
81
68
+13
A30/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
85-74
85
74
+11
A01/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A06/02
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
75-76
75
76
-1
A08/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
101-67
101
67
+34
H13/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-43
50-35
44-24
39-39
44-19
41-40
30-25
35-30
36-34
44-31
37-41
44-27
39-33
46-41
35-29
37-48
39-36
36-40
55-36
46-31
149.3Avg total
81.1Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)79.369.8149.1+9.573%
Season at home (14)79.664.9144.6+14.786%
Season away (12)78.975.4154.3+3.558%
Last 10 (10)81.168.2149.3+12.980%
Last 5 (5)82.872.4155.2+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)71.091.0162.0-20.00%
vs Similar ◀ (8)80.479.4159.8+1.050%
vs Weaker (19)77.466.4143.7+11.079%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#54
L
78-84
78
84
-6
H11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
77-58
77
58
+19
A16/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A18/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
70-61
70
61
+9
H27/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#201
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H31/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
87-50
87
50
+37
H01/02
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A06/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
62-69
62
69
-7
A08/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
74-56
74
56
+18
A13/02
NCAA
1H
2H
43-34
35-50
35-30
42-28
22-42
41-22
32-26
33-29
39-26
31-35
41-40
40-34
50-15
37-35
28-32
33-32
29-32
33-37
29-20
45-36
135.3Avg total
71.8Scored
63.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)72.965.0137.9+8.064%
Season at home (13)80.466.2146.5+14.277%
Season away (12)64.863.7128.5+1.250%
Last 10 (10)71.863.5135.3+8.360%
Last 5 (5)73.062.6135.6+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)42.062.0104.0-20.00%
vs Similar ◀ (8)63.167.1130.2-4.038%
vs Weaker (20)78.967.9146.8+11.070%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.3+7.31st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: +3.2+3.2
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.3+7.31st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: +3.2+3.2
Arkansas StateTroy
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#68
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
44-24
44
24
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
44-19
44
19
+25
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H24/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A30/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A01/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A06/02
NCAA
Kent State
#74
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A08/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
55-36
55
36
+19
H13/02
NCAA
71.3Avg total
39.3Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.333.071.2+5.367%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.529.969.4+9.675%-
Last 30 away (14)36.936.473.3+0.457%-
Last 10 (10)39.332.071.3+7.380%-
Last 5 (5)41.035.076.0+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.042.074.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)36.640.176.8-3.538%-
vs Weaker (19)38.429.868.2+8.579%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#54
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A16/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
22-42
22
42
-20
A18/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
32-26
32
26
+6
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H27/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#201
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H31/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
50-15
50
15
+35
H01/02
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A06/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A08/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
29-20
29
20
+9
A13/02
NCAA
64.5Avg total
34.8Scored
29.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.030.866.9+5.270%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.130.171.3+11.086%-
Last 30 away (16)31.631.463.0+0.156%-
Last 10 (10)34.829.764.5+5.170%-
Last 5 (5)35.427.863.2+7.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)11.033.044.0-22.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)28.532.460.9-3.950%-
vs Weaker (20)39.730.670.3+9.180%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Arkansas State wins
4
Troy wins
DateGameScore
11/01/25Troy v Arkansas State78-84
23/02/24Arkansas State v Troy79-71
16/02/24Troy v Arkansas State71-82
02/03/23Troy v Arkansas State63-59
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
11/02/22Troy v Arkansas State79-77
25/01/20Troy v Arkansas State62-78
11/01/20Arkansas State v Troy76-68 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/25HSouthern Miss101-67
08/02/25AKent State75-76
06/02/25AMarshall72-77
01/02/25ATexas State85-74
30/01/25ASouthern Miss81-68
25/01/25HTexas State80-65
24/01/25HAppalachian State65-55
18/01/25HGeorgia State85-59
17/01/25HLouisiana Lafayette83-63
11/01/25ATroy84-78
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/25ALouisiana Lafayette74-56
08/02/25AMiami (Ohio)62-69
06/02/25AJames Madison61-64
01/02/25HLouisiana Monroe87-50
31/01/25HGeorgia Southern81-74
27/01/25HSouthern Miss70-61
25/01/25HSouth Alabama65-55
18/01/25ASouth Alabama63-64
16/01/25ALouisiana Monroe77-58
11/01/25HArkansas State78-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW73%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayWWWLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %73%86%58%
Points / game79.379.678.9
Allowed / game69.864.975.4
Point differential+9.5+14.7+3.5
Avg total149.1144.6154.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%64%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)75% (4)25% (4)
Overtime %8%7%8%
Troy
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW64%
HomeLWWWW77%
AwayWLLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251312
Win %64%77%50%
Points / game72.980.464.8
Allowed / game65.066.263.7
Point differential+8.0+14.2+1.2
Avg total137.9146.5128.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%62%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State2619773%79.369.8+9.5
2 South Alabama2718967%72.463.7+8.8
3 Troy2516964%72.965.0+8.0
4 James Madison27171063%72.868.9+3.9
5 Appalachian State26161062%68.962.7+6.2
6 Marshall26151158%75.872.1+3.7
7 Georgia Southern27141352%74.776.7-2.0
8 Texas State27131448%75.372.6+2.7
9 Georgia State27121544%75.478.7-3.3
10 Old Dominion27111641%68.672.7-4.1
11 Southern Miss27101737%72.076.3-4.3
12 Louisiana Lafayette2681831%66.174.2-8.1
13 Coastal Carolina2781930%66.070.9-4.9
14 Louisiana Monroe2772026%68.873.7-4.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas State343670
Troy304171
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