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Troy vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 02 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 63-59
30-34 33-25
Position#115
Record19-12
FormWWLWW
Points / game73.5
Allowed / game66.8
Troy 🏆
USA
vs
Position#278
Record13-19
FormLWLWW
Points / game65.9
Allowed / game67.8
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Troy v Arkansas State
30 Jan 2027
TROY v ARKA
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
TROY99
ARKA74
10 Mar 2025
TROY94
ARKA81
11 Jan 2025
TROY78
ARKA84
15 Feb 2024
TROY71
ARKA82
02 Mar 2023
TROY63
ARKA59
07 Jan 2023
TROY66
ARKA54
10 Feb 2022
TROY79
ARKA77
25 Jan 2020
TROY62
ARKA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#33
L
57-72
57
72
-15
A27/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#166
L
60-77
60
77
-17
A28/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#21
L
65-74
65
74
-9
H03/02
NCAA
Texas State
#236
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H05/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#166
W
61-57
61
57
+4
H10/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#33
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H11/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#278
W
67-62
67
62
+5
A17/02
NCAA
Marshall
#38
L
78-88
78
88
-10
A19/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#301
W
82-78 OT
82
78
+4
A23/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#294
W
95-74
95
74
+21
H25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
17-41
40-31
25-37
35-40
23-30
42-44
45-24
23-40
27-34
34-23
30-35
50-30
30-27
37-35
30-38
48-50
32-41
35-26
49-31
46-43
142.4Avg total
71.3Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)73.566.8140.3+6.761%
Season at home (15)81.164.7145.9+16.480%
Season away (16)66.468.7135.1-2.344%
Last 10 (10)71.371.1142.4+0.260%
Last 5 (5)80.473.4153.8+7.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)82.588.5171.0-6.00%
vs Similar (11)62.968.8131.7-5.918%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)74.764.4139.1+10.393%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Appalachian State
#203
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A28/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#166
L
62-82
62
82
-20
H03/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#294
W
73-57
73
57
+16
H04/02
NCAA
Texas State
#236
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A10/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#198
L
53-68
53
68
-15
A11/02
NCAA
Troy
#115
L
62-67
62
67
-5
H17/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#320
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H18/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#33
L
74-85
74
85
-11
A23/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#301
W
64-61
64
61
+3
A25/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#294
W
86-69
86
69
+17
A28/02
NCAA
1H
2H
25-31
26-32
30-44
32-38
28-24
45-33
30-33
32-33
24-30
29-38
27-30
35-37
35-38
40-32
29-41
45-44
26-29
38-32
34-30
52-39
135.0Avg total
66.2Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)65.967.8133.7-1.841%
Season at home (18)70.667.2137.8+3.356%
Season away (14)60.068.5128.5-8.521%
Last 10 (10)66.268.8135.0-2.640%
Last 5 (5)72.270.4142.6+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)61.873.2135.0-11.58%
vs Similar (13)66.367.4133.7-1.154%
vs Weaker (5)73.859.6133.4+14.280%
This opponent (Troy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -3.0-3.01st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: +2.8+2.82nd half: +1.6+1.6
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -3.0-3.01st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: +2.8+2.82nd half: +1.6+1.6
TroyArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#33
L
17-41
17
41
-24
A27/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#166
L
25-37
25
37
-12
A28/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#21
L
23-30
23
30
-7
H03/02
NCAA
Texas State
#236
W
45-24
45
24
+21
H05/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#166
L
27-34
27
34
-7
H10/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#33
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H11/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#278
W
30-27
30
27
+3
A17/02
NCAA
Marshall
#38
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#301
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A23/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#294
W
49-31
49
31
+18
H25/02
NCAA
64.6Avg total
30.8Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.831.465.2+2.453%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.630.570.1+9.171%-
Last 30 away (16)28.832.260.9-3.438%-
Last 10 (10)30.833.864.6-3.030%-
Last 5 (5)34.234.468.6-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)36.036.572.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (11)27.533.260.7-5.627%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)34.330.164.4+4.167%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Appalachian State
#203
L
25-31
25
31
-6
A28/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#166
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H03/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#294
W
28-24
28
24
+4
H04/02
NCAA
Texas State
#236
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A10/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#198
L
24-30
24
30
-6
A11/02
NCAA
Troy
#115
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H17/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#320
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H18/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#33
L
29-41
29
41
-12
A23/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#301
L
26-29
26
29
-3
A25/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#294
W
34-30
34
30
+4
A28/02
NCAA
61.8Avg total
28.8Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)29.431.861.2-2.427%-
Last 30 at home (17)30.932.463.3-1.429%-
Last 30 away (13)27.431.258.5-3.823%-
Last 10 (10)28.833.061.8-4.220%-
Last 5 (5)30.233.663.8-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)26.933.860.8-6.90%-
vs Similar (13)29.231.560.7-2.431%-
vs Weaker (5)36.027.863.8+8.280%-
This opponent (Troy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Troy wins
2
Arkansas State wins
DateGameScore
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
11/02/22Troy v Arkansas State79-77
25/01/20Troy v Arkansas State62-78
11/01/20Arkansas State v Troy76-68 OT
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/23HCoastal Carolina95-74
23/02/23ALouisiana Monroe82-78 OT
19/02/23AMarshall78-88
17/02/23AArkansas State67-62
11/02/23HLouisiana Lafayette80-65
10/02/23HSouth Alabama61-57
05/02/23HTexas State68-64
03/02/23HSouthern Miss65-74
28/01/23ASouth Alabama60-77
27/01/23ALouisiana Lafayette57-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/23ACoastal Carolina86-69
25/02/23ALouisiana Monroe64-61
23/02/23ALouisiana Lafayette74-85
18/02/23HGeorgia State75-70
17/02/23HTroy62-67
11/02/23AGeorgia Southern53-68
10/02/23ATexas State62-66
04/02/23HCoastal Carolina73-57
03/02/23HSouth Alabama62-82
28/01/23AAppalachian State51-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW61%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLWLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %61%80%44%
Points / game73.581.166.4
Allowed / game66.864.768.7
Point differential+6.7+16.4-2.3
Avg total140.3145.9135.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%60%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)50% (4)50% (6)
Overtime %6%7%6%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW41%
HomeLLWLW56%
AwayLLLWW21%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321814
Win %41%56%21%
Points / game65.970.660.0
Allowed / game67.867.268.5
Point differential-1.8+3.3-8.5
Avg total133.7137.8128.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%28%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Southern Miss3125681%74.765.0+9.6
2 Marshall3124777%82.271.3+10.9
3 Louisiana Lafayette3023777%79.171.0+8.1
4 James Madison31211068%81.267.7+13.5
5 Old Dominion30191163%67.966.2+1.7
6 Troy31191261%73.566.8+6.7
7 South Alabama32171553%70.865.1+5.6
8 Georgia Southern31161552%69.167.0+2.1
9 Appalachian State32161650%70.264.6+5.7
10 Texas State32141844%66.167.7-1.6
11 Arkansas State32131941%65.967.8-1.8
12 Coastal Carolina31112035%73.374.0-0.7
13 Louisiana Monroe31112035%67.770.0-2.2
14 Georgia State31102132%66.769.4-2.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Troy303363
Arkansas State342559
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