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Valparaiso vs Illinois State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 08 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 77-71
35-23 42-48
Position#170
Record7-8
FormLLLLW
Points / game70.9
Allowed / game69.7
vs
Position#96
Record12-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game65.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Valparaiso v Illinois State
07 Jan 2026
VALP77
ILLI71
03 Mar 2024
VALP75
ILLI72
11 Feb 2023
VALP81
ILLI76
02 Jan 2022
VALP81
ILLI76
01 Feb 2020
VALP80
ILLI70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Indiana
#357
L
56-64
56
64
-8
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-55
84
55
+29
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
48-58
48
58
-10
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
66-59
66
59
+7
H04/01
NCAA
1H
2H
30-36
26-28
37-17
47-38
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
40-31
30-42
30-39
40-47
39-36
40-49
22-22
26-36
25-36
45-39
31-32
35-27
140.1Avg total
71.3Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)70.969.7140.7+1.247%
Season at home (9)72.863.3136.1+9.467%
Season away (6)68.279.3147.5-11.217%
Last 10 (10)71.368.8140.1+2.530%
Last 5 (5)66.672.6139.2-6.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)63.573.4136.9-9.925%
vs Similar (15)72.474.8147.2-2.440%
vs Weaker (7)76.165.6141.7+10.657%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
94-42
94
42
+52
H23/11
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
79-69
79
69
+10
H27/11
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
72-65
72
65
+7
H28/11
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
W
89-78
89
78
+11
H04/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#363
W
95-53
95
53
+42
H07/12
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
78-83
78
83
-5
A13/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
75-68
75
68
+7
A19/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
85-65
85
65
+20
H21/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
73-56
73
56
+17
A30/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
73-47
73
47
+26
H01/01
NCAA
1H
2H
55-20
39-22
43-34
36-35
33-36
39-29
49-41
40-37
45-13
50-40
33-40
45-43
30-35
45-33
42-25
43-40
31-27
42-29
46-28
27-19
143.9Avg total
81.3Scored
62.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)79.965.2145.1+14.780%
Season at home (9)84.059.1143.1+24.9100%
Season away (6)73.874.3148.2-0.550%
Last 10 (10)81.362.6143.9+18.790%
Last 5 (5)76.863.8140.6+13.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.574.8148.2-1.225%
vs Similar (10)76.074.3150.3+1.770%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)77.365.3142.7+12.080%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +3.2+3.21st half: +10.8+10.82nd half2nd half: -0.4-0.42nd half: +7.9+7.9
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +3.2+3.21st half: +10.8+10.82nd half2nd half: -0.4-0.42nd half: +7.9+7.9
ValparaisoIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Indiana
#357
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
37-17
37
17
+20
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
D
22-22
22
22
+0
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H04/01
NCAA
63.6Avg total
33.4Scored
30.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.133.066.1+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.530.664.1+2.960%-
Last 30 away (15)32.735.568.1-2.840%-
Last 10 (10)33.430.263.6+3.250%-
Last 5 (5)29.433.062.4-3.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)32.034.666.6-2.650%-
vs Similar (15)32.332.765.0-0.347%-
vs Weaker (7)35.932.067.9+3.957%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
55-20
55
20
+35
H23/11
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H27/11
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H28/11
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H04/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#363
W
45-13
45
13
+32
H07/12
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A13/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A19/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
42-25
42
25
+17
H21/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A30/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H01/01
NCAA
70.6Avg total
40.7Scored
29.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.732.168.8+4.660%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.929.669.5+10.476%-
Last 30 away (13)32.435.467.8-3.038%-
Last 10 (10)40.729.970.6+10.870%-
Last 5 (5)36.431.067.4+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.533.865.2-2.225%-
vs Similar (10)34.936.271.1-1.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)38.529.768.1+8.873%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Valparaiso wins
2
Illinois State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26HIllinois (Chi.)66-59
01/01/26ASouthern Illinois70-75
30/12/25ANorthern Iowa48-58
21/12/25HMurray State79-85
17/12/25ANorthwestern70-86
13/12/25HNC Wilmington70-73
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT
29/11/25HWestern Michigan84-55
26/11/25HSouthern Indiana56-64
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/01/26HEvansville73-47
30/12/25ADrake73-56
21/12/25HIndiana State85-65
19/12/25ASouthern Illinois75-68
13/12/25AUtah State78-83
07/12/25HChicago State95-53
04/12/25HEastern Kentucky89-78
28/11/25HFurman72-65
27/11/25HCharlotte79-69
23/11/25HCoastal Carolina94-42

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW47%
HomeWWLLW67%
AwayWLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1596
Win %47%67%17%
Points / game70.972.868.2
Allowed / game69.763.379.3
Point differential+1.2+9.4-11.2
Avg total140.7136.1147.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%33%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)67% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %7%0%17%
Illinois State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1596
Win %80%100%50%
Points / game79.984.073.8
Allowed / game65.259.174.3
Point differential+14.7+24.9-0.5
Avg total145.1143.1148.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%89%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State1613381%88.277.4+10.8
2 Illinois State1512380%79.965.2+14.7
3 Belmont1814478%81.971.0+10.9
4 Northern Iowa1612475%69.658.6+11.1
5 Bradley1610662%77.571.6+5.9
6 Drake158753%77.269.6+7.6
7 Southern Illinois168850%78.073.6+4.4
8 Indiana State168850%75.873.8+1.9
9 Valparaiso157847%70.969.7+1.2
10 Illinois (Chi.)1551033%76.573.7+2.8
11 Evansville1641225%66.672.4-5.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso354277
Illinois State234871
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