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Belmont vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 14 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 78-74
41-39 37-35
Position#25
Record15-4
FormLWLWW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game71.3
Belmont 🏆
USA
vs
Position#170
Record8-9
FormLLWWL
Points / game71.8
Allowed / game71.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Belmont v Valparaiso
13 Jan 2026
BELM78
VALP74
14 Jan 2025
BELM71
VALP64
07 Mar 2024
BELM86
VALP61
02 Dec 2023
BELM77
VALP68
01 Dec 2022
BELM76
VALP64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Belmont winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BelmontUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Richmond Spiders
#231
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H04/12
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
83-62
83
62
+21
A07/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H13/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
83-78
83
78
+5
A17/12
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
W
84-58
84
58
+26
A20/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
80-81 OT
80
81
-1
A30/12
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
88-78
88
78
+10
H02/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H04/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
78-65
78
65
+13
A08/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
78-76
78
76
+2
A10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
43-41
33-43
35-31
48-31
30-43
57-41
41-30
42-48
38-36
46-22
41-36
30-35
42-39
46-39
22-26
45-42
36-32
42-33
25-44
53-32
153.8Avg total
80.4Scored
73.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)81.771.3152.9+10.479%
Season at home (10)83.670.2153.8+13.480%
Season away (9)79.672.4152.0+7.178%
Last 10 (10)80.473.4153.8+7.070%
Last 5 (5)78.273.6151.8+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)65.067.0132.0-2.050%
vs Similar (9)80.074.1154.1+5.978%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)80.271.0151.2+9.274%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
48-58
48
58
-10
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
66-59
66
59
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H08/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-92
79
92
-13
A10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
40-31
30-42
30-39
40-47
39-36
40-49
22-22
26-36
25-36
45-39
31-32
35-27
35-23
42-48
36-45
43-47
146.1Avg total
72.9Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)71.871.1142.9+0.647%
Season at home (10)73.264.1137.3+9.170%
Season away (7)69.781.1150.9-11.414%
Last 10 (10)72.973.2146.1-0.330%
Last 5 (5)68.071.0139.0-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)64.272.1136.4-7.938%
vs Similar (16)72.875.9148.7-3.138%
vs Weaker (6)77.563.5141.0+14.067%
This opponent (Belmont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +2.1+2.12nd half2nd half: +7.6+7.62nd half: -2.1-2.1
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +2.1+2.12nd half2nd half: +7.6+7.62nd half: -2.1-2.1
BelmontValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
BelmontLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H04/12
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
35-31
35
31
+4
A07/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H13/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
41-30
41
30
+11
A17/12
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A20/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A30/12
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H02/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
22-26
22
26
-4
H04/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A08/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
25-44
25
44
-19
A10/01
NCAA
71.1Avg total
35.3Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.234.470.6+1.877%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.832.268.9+4.681%-
Last 30 away (14)35.636.972.5-1.471%-
Last 10 (10)35.335.871.1-0.570%-
Last 5 (5)33.235.468.6-2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)34.528.062.5+6.5100%-
vs Similar (9)36.633.870.3+2.867%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)36.235.471.6+0.879%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
D
22-22
22
22
+0
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
35-23
35
23
+12
H08/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A10/01
NCAA
65.5Avg total
33.8Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.632.466.0+1.253%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.129.263.3+4.967%-
Last 30 away (15)33.135.668.7-2.540%-
Last 10 (10)33.831.765.5+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)29.831.661.4-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)32.832.164.9+0.662%-
vs Similar (16)32.633.466.0-0.944%-
vs Weaker (6)37.530.067.5+7.567%-
This opponent (Belmont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Belmont wins
1
Valparaiso wins
DateGameScore
13/02/25Valparaiso v Belmont101-86
15/01/25Belmont v Valparaiso71-64
07/03/24Belmont v Valparaiso86-61
10/02/24Valparaiso v Belmont78-96
02/12/23Belmont v Valparaiso77-68
11/01/23Valparaiso v Belmont59-74
02/12/22Belmont v Valparaiso76-64
Belmontlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26ADrake78-76
08/01/26ANorthern Iowa78-65
04/01/26HSouthern Illinois67-68
02/01/26HBradley88-78
30/12/25AIndiana State80-81 OT
20/12/25AUC Irvine84-58
17/12/25AEvansville83-78
13/12/25HIllinois (Chi.)87-84
07/12/25AMiddle Tenn. St.83-62
04/12/25HRichmond Spiders76-84
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26AMurray State79-92
08/01/26HIllinois State77-71
04/01/26HIllinois (Chi.)66-59
01/01/26ASouthern Illinois70-75
30/12/25ANorthern Iowa48-58
21/12/25HMurray State79-85
17/12/25ANorthwestern70-86
13/12/25HNC Wilmington70-73
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Belmont
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW79%
HomeWLWWL80%
AwayWWLWW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %79%80%78%
Points / game81.783.679.6
Allowed / game71.370.272.4
Point differential+10.4+13.4+7.1
Avg total152.9153.8152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%50%56%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %5%0%11%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL47%
HomeWLLWW70%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %47%70%14%
Points / game71.873.269.7
Allowed / game71.164.181.1
Point differential+0.6+9.1-11.4
Avg total142.9137.3150.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%30%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)67% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %6%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State1815383%87.977.1+10.9
2 Belmont1915479%81.771.3+10.4
3 Illinois State1712571%78.265.8+12.4
4 Northern Iowa1812667%69.160.1+9.1
5 Bradley1812667%78.271.2+7.1
6 Drake178947%76.571.5+5.0
7 Southern Illinois178947%76.873.4+3.4
8 Indiana State178947%75.473.7+1.6
9 Valparaiso178947%71.871.1+0.6
10 Illinois (Chi.)1881044%74.971.2+3.7
11 Evansville1851328%67.072.6-5.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Belmont413778
Valparaiso393574
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