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Valparaiso vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 79-85
39-36 40-49
Position#170
Record6-5
FormWLWLL
Points / game72.8
Allowed / game69.9
vs
Position#102
Record9-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game89.7
Allowed / game78.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Valparaiso v Murray State
21 Dec 2025
VALP79
MURR85
08 Feb 2025
VALP56
MURR74
04 Dec 2022
VALP70
MURR77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kentucky
#107
L
59-107
59
107
-48
A08/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H13/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
68-50
68
50
+18
H16/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
90-75
90
75
+15
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
56-64
56
64
-8
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-55
84
55
+29
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A17/12
NCAA
1H
2H
26-58
33-49
25-19
43-44
22-30
46-20
39-27
51-48
30-36
26-28
37-17
47-38
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
40-31
30-42
30-39
40-47
144.1Avg total
73.5Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)72.869.9142.7+2.955%
Season at home (7)72.960.9133.7+12.071%
Season away (4)72.885.8158.5-13.025%
Last 10 (10)73.570.6144.1+2.950%
Last 5 (5)78.869.4148.2+9.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)65.778.3144.0-12.717%
vs Similar ◀ (17)71.874.5146.3-2.841%
vs Weaker (7)76.165.6141.7+10.657%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
91-102
91
102
-11
A12/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
99-79
99
79
+20
H15/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
89-68
89
68
+21
H19/11
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
87-90
87
90
-3
A24/11
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
60-73
60
73
-13
A25/11
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
96-95
96
95
+1
H26/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
84-52
84
52
+32
H03/12
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
81-68
81
68
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
115-100
115
100
+15
A13/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
81-72
81
72
+9
H19/12
NCAA
1H
2H
42-49
49-53
48-39
51-40
43-23
46-45
40-43
47-47
17-40
43-33
45-43
51-52
33-28
51-24
47-34
34-34
47-42
68-58
36-30
45-42
168.2Avg total
88.3Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)89.778.0167.7+11.775%
Season at home (8)90.471.4161.8+19.0100%
Season away (4)88.291.2179.5-3.025%
Last 10 (10)88.379.9168.2+8.470%
Last 5 (5)91.477.4168.8+14.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)74.678.9153.4-4.329%
vs Similar ◀ (14)76.973.4150.3+3.457%
vs Weaker (9)79.767.4147.1+12.278%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: +1.3+1.32nd half: +5.7+5.7
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: +1.3+1.32nd half: +5.7+5.7
ValparaisoMurray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kentucky
#107
L
26-58
26
58
-32
A08/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H13/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H16/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
37-17
37
17
+20
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A17/12
NCAA
63.9Avg total
32.9Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.633.667.3+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.331.365.6+3.160%-
Last 30 away (15)32.936.068.9-3.140%-
Last 10 (10)32.931.063.9+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)37.428.065.4+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.837.271.0-3.367%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)32.633.165.7-0.441%-
vs Weaker (7)35.932.067.9+3.957%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A12/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H15/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
43-23
43
23
+20
H19/11
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A24/11
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
17-40
17
40
-23
A25/11
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H26/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H03/12
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A13/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H19/12
NCAA
76.9Avg total
39.8Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.533.568.1+1.067%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.532.468.9+4.271%-
Last 30 away (13)31.935.167.0-3.262%-
Last 10 (10)39.837.176.9+2.770%-
Last 5 (5)41.635.477.0+6.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.737.370.0-4.657%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)34.034.168.1-0.157%-
vs Weaker (9)36.829.766.4+7.189%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Valparaiso wins
6
Murray State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/25ANorthwestern70-86
13/12/25HNC Wilmington70-73
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT
29/11/25HWestern Michigan84-55
26/11/25HSouthern Indiana56-64
20/11/25ACleveland State90-75
16/11/25HBryant University68-50
13/11/25HNicholls State68-63
08/11/25AKentucky59-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/12/25HDrake81-72
13/12/25AAkron115-100
06/12/25HBellarmine81-68
03/12/25HMorehead State84-52
26/11/25HGeorge Washington96-95
25/11/25AMcNeese State60-73
24/11/25AMiddle Tenn. St.87-90
19/11/25HUALR89-68
15/11/25HNicholls State99-79
12/11/25ASMU Mustangs91-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL55%
HomeWLWWL71%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %55%71%25%
Points / game72.872.972.8
Allowed / game69.960.985.8
Point differential+2.9+12.0-13.0
Avg total142.7133.7158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%43%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %9%0%25%
Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW75%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1284
Win %75%100%25%
Points / game89.790.488.2
Allowed / game78.071.491.2
Point differential+11.7+19.0-3.0
Avg total167.7161.8179.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%62%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont1412286%82.970.4+12.5
2 Northern Iowa119282%72.457.6+14.7
3 Illinois State129375%80.767.5+13.2
4 Murray State129375%89.778.0+11.7
5 Bradley128467%78.969.6+9.3
6 Indiana State127558%77.372.2+5.1
7 Valparaiso116555%72.869.9+2.9
8 Drake126650%80.269.5+10.7
9 Southern Illinois126650%79.673.6+6.0
10 Illinois (Chi.)114736%75.773.3+2.5
11 Evansville124833%69.873.4-3.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso394079
Murray State364985
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