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Virginia vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 24 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 80-85
43-34 37-51
Position#19
Record16-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game69.1
Virginia
USA
vs
North Carolina 🏆
USA
Position#45
Record15-4
FormLWLLW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game69.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Virginia v North Carolina
24 Jan 2026
VIRG80
NORT85
24 Feb 2024
VIRG44
NORT54
09 Mar 2023
VIRG68
NORT59
10 Jan 2023
VIRG65
NORT58
13 Feb 2021
VIRG60
NORT48
08 Dec 2019
VIRG56
NORT47
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dayton
#65
W
86-73
86
73
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
95-51
95
51
+44
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
85-95 OT
85
95
-10
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
76-61
76
61
+15
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
79-70
79
70
+9
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
37-33
49-40
46-32
38-28
24-19
56-53
45-25
50-26
24-23
31-32
40-20
36-41
43-33
41-27
41-34
29-21
33-28
46-42
40-37
32-31
147.6Avg total
81.1Scored
66.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)82.469.1151.5+13.384%
Season at home (13)85.564.9150.5+20.692%
Season away (6)75.778.2153.8-2.567%
Last 10 (10)81.166.5147.6+14.690%
Last 5 (5)76.262.8139.0+13.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)68.472.8141.2-4.440%
vs Similar ◀ (10)72.768.1140.8+4.670%
vs Weaker (15)83.469.7153.1+13.780%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USC Upstate
#274
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
83-97
83
97
-14
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
91-69
91
69
+22
H22/01
NCAA
1H
2H
37-28
43-34
38-30
39-28
34-31
37-39
49-26
50-25
40-34
39-32
39-39
44-58
49-38
38-46
47-45
43-50
37-54
41-30
42-33
49-36
157.1Avg total
83.5Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)82.469.5151.9+12.979%
Season at home (13)86.164.4150.5+21.7100%
Season away (6)74.580.7155.2-6.233%
Last 10 (10)83.573.6157.1+9.970%
Last 5 (5)85.885.8171.6+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.078.0148.0-8.00%
vs Similar ◀ (13)77.269.8147.1+7.469%
vs Weaker (15)88.168.2156.3+19.993%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +8.9+8.91st half: +5.4+5.42nd half2nd half: +6.7+6.72nd half: +4.5+4.5
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +8.9+8.91st half: +5.4+5.42nd half2nd half: +6.7+6.72nd half: +4.5+4.5
VirginiaNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dayton
#65
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
24-23
24
23
+1
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A17/01
NCAA
65.7Avg total
37.3Scored
28.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.931.369.2+6.673%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.831.471.2+8.378%-
Last 30 away (12)35.131.266.2+3.967%-
Last 10 (10)37.328.465.7+8.9100%-
Last 5 (5)39.430.469.8+9.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.633.668.2+1.060%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)34.931.566.4+3.460%-
vs Weaker (15)41.030.571.5+10.587%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USC Upstate
#274
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H22/01
NCAA
77.0Avg total
41.2Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.233.974.2+6.373%-
Last 30 at home (18)42.631.774.2+10.989%-
Last 30 away (12)36.837.374.1-0.650%-
Last 10 (10)41.235.877.0+5.480%-
Last 5 (5)42.841.884.6+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.044.077.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)36.533.770.2+2.854%-
vs Weaker (15)44.432.877.2+11.6100%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Virginia wins
5
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
22/02/25North Carolina v Virginia81-66
24/02/24Virginia v North Carolina44-54
10/03/23Virginia v North Carolina68-59
25/02/23North Carolina v Virginia71-63
11/01/23Virginia v North Carolina65-58
11/03/22North Carolina v Virginia63-43
08/01/22North Carolina v Virginia74-58
13/02/21Virginia v North Carolina60-48
16/02/20North Carolina v Virginia62-64
08/12/19Virginia v North Carolina56-47
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26ASMU Mustangs72-68
14/01/26ALouisville79-70
10/01/26HStanford70-55
08/01/26HCalifornia84-60
03/01/26ANC State76-61
31/12/25AVirginia Tech85-95 OT
22/12/25HAmerican University95-51
20/12/25HMaryland80-72
10/12/25HMd.-East. Shore84-60
06/12/25HDayton86-73
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/26HNotre Dame91-69
17/01/26ACalifornia78-84
15/01/26AStanford90-95
10/01/26HWake Forest87-84
03/01/26ASMU Mustangs83-97
31/12/25HFlorida State79-66
23/12/25HEast Carolina99-51
20/12/25AOhio State71-70
17/12/25HEast Tennessee St77-58
13/12/25HUSC Upstate80-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW84%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayWLWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19136
Win %84%92%67%
Points / game82.485.575.7
Allowed / game69.164.978.2
Point differential+13.3+20.6-2.5
Avg total151.5150.5153.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+63%77%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %5%0%17%
North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW79%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19136
Win %79%100%33%
Points / game82.486.174.5
Allowed / game69.564.480.7
Point differential+12.9+21.7-6.2
Avg total151.9150.5155.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+63%92%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1817194%85.565.1+20.4
2 Virginia1916384%82.469.1+13.3
3 Clemson2016480%77.165.2+11.8
4 Miami (FL)1915479%84.968.9+16.0
5 North Carolina1915479%82.469.5+12.9
6 Virginia Tech2015575%82.074.0+8.0
7 SMU Mustangs1914574%87.576.8+10.6
8 California1914574%78.870.5+8.3
9 Stanford1914574%76.572.2+4.3
10 Louisville1813572%87.969.6+18.4
11 NC State1913668%85.571.8+13.7
12 Syracuse1912763%75.668.1+7.5
13 Wake Forest1911858%80.975.8+5.1
14 Georgia Tech1911858%75.673.1+2.5
15 Notre Dame1910953%73.270.4+2.7
16 Boston College1991047%68.468.2+0.3
17 Pittsburgh1981142%72.770.7+1.9
18 Florida State1981142%81.480.4+1.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia433780
North Carolina345185
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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