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Virtus Bologna vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 22 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#16
Record4-7
FormLLLWL
Points / game86.1
Allowed / game90.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
EuropeEuroleagueRound 19· PalaDozza
European cup2026
Meetings · Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid
22 Dec 2026
VIR v MAD
upcoming
30 Sep 2025
VIR74
MAD68
13 Mar 2025
VIR67
MAD80
15 Mar 2024
VIR74
MAD89
24 Mar 2023
VIR79
MAD96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virtus Bologna win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Virtus BolognaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#20
W
86-78
86
78
+8
81avg 81
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
108-83
108
83
+25
113avg 81
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
L
81-90
81
90
-9
65avg 81
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#3
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
90avg 81
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
74-91
74
91
-17
62avg 81
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
101-103
101
103
-2
97avg 81
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#8
L
93-100
93
100
-7
no box
H02/11
Lega A
Dubai
#9
L
75-93
75
93
-18
no box
H06/11
Euroleague
Verona
#10
W
95-81
95
81
+14
no box
H09/11
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
91-103
91
103
-12
no box
A13/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-12
22-22
22-19
18-25
32-17
18-19
23-20
35-27
25-23
23-13
14-28
19-26
20-22
17-30
22-15
22-14
22-14
13-23
18-28
21-26
24-24
30-23
20-23
27-33
24-25
31-21
17-31
21-23
17-21
17-27
19-28
22-17
21-22
21-14
26-27
27-18
20-28
23-32
25-16
23-27
181.8Avg total
90.2Scored
91.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.190.7176.8-4.636%
Season at home (5)86.491.8178.2-5.440%
Season away (6)85.889.8175.7-4.033%
Last 10 (10)90.291.6181.8-1.440%
Last 5 (5)91.096.0187.0-5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)78.889.2168.0-10.420%
vs Similar (6)94.294.7188.8-0.550%
vs Weaker (19)92.584.7177.3+7.868%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 91
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#9
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 91
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 91
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 91
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 91
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 91
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 91
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#10
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +5.9+5.9
Virtus BolognaReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#20
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#8
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H02/11
Lega A
Dubai
#9
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H06/11
Euroleague
Verona
#10
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H09/11
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A13/11
Euroleague
87.6Avg total
44.4Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.843.088.8+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.242.490.6+5.969%-
Last 30 away (14)42.943.786.6-0.850%-
Last 10 (10)44.443.287.6+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)45.647.493.0-1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)40.842.082.8-1.220%-
vs Similar (6)45.547.893.3-2.350%-
vs Weaker (19)47.241.788.9+5.474%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#9
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#10
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 92.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.821.9
55.0%
55.2%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.8
36.3%
35.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws24.819.7
79.4%
77.1%19.7
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Virtus Bologna
LWLLLLWLWW
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#16
League position
#5
+3.7
Net rating
+23.0
102.2
Offensive rating
114.6
98.4
Defensive rating
91.6
54.8%
Effective FG%
60.2%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
14.0%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.3%
3-point %
41.9%
57.7%
Assist %
62.4%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence102.2 · 114.6Defence98.4 · 91.6Shooting54.8% · 60.2%3-point %36.3% · 41.9%Ball care14.0% · 12.7%Free throws0.37 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)40% · 90%
■ Virtus Bologna   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Virtus Bologna wins
6
Real Madrid wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AAnadolu Efes91-103
09/11/26HVerona95-81
06/11/26HDubai75-93
02/11/26HTrieste93-100
30/10/26HBesiktas101-103
28/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas74-91
25/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-94 OT
21/10/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv81-90
18/10/26HScafati108-83
16/10/26HBaskonia86-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virtus Bologna
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL36%
HomeWWLLL40%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %36%40%33%
Points / game86.186.485.8
Allowed / game90.791.889.8
Point differential-4.6-5.4-4.0
Avg total176.8178.2175.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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