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Virtus Bologna vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 30 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 18:45
Final 74-68
14-19 24-16 17-15 19-18
Position#17
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Virtus Bologna 🏆
vs
Real Madrid
Position#2
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeEuroleagueRound 1· Segafredo Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid
22 Dec 2026
VIR v MAD
upcoming
30 Sep 2025
VIR74
MAD68
13 Mar 2025
VIR67
MAD80
15 Mar 2024
VIR74
MAD89
24 Mar 2023
VIR79
MAD96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virtus Bologna winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Virtus BolognaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Venezia
#8
L
78-84
78
84
-6
72avg 78
A25/05
Lega A
Venezia
#8
W
86-84
86
84
+2
77avg 78
H27/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
68-67
68
67
+1
62avg 78
H31/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
66-85
66
85
-19
57avg 78
H02/06
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
78-68
78
68
+10
76avg 78
A05/06
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
84-78
84
78
+6
84avg 78
A07/06
Lega A
Brescia
#2
W
90-87
90
87
+3
89avg 78
H12/06
Lega A
Brescia
#2
W
75-65
75
65
+10
70avg 78
H14/06
Lega A
Brescia
#2
W
96-74
96
74
+22
96avg 78
A17/06
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
86-93 OT
86
93
-7
74avg 78
H27/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-13
21-25
21-22
19-24
22-21
19-18
24-26
21-19
17-13
13-20
22-18
16-16
20-27
15-17
23-22
8-19
25-15
15-20
14-19
24-14
19-29
23-15
23-15
19-19
20-23
21-22
22-22
27-20
22-21
17-11
19-19
17-14
28-15
22-13
26-23
20-23
22-20
23-22
19-17
19-24
159.2Avg total
80.7Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.778.5159.2+2.270%
Last 5 (5)86.279.4165.6+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)68.587.0155.5-18.50%
vs Similar (12)82.276.8158.9+5.483%
vs Weaker (13)86.976.5163.4+10.569%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#7
W
112-103
112
103
+9
108avg 81
A06/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
W
99-81
99
81
+18
94avg 81
H11/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
W
90-75
90
75
+15
82avg 81
H13/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
L
84-86
84
86
-2
78avg 81
A15/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
W
86-79
86
79
+7
78avg 81
A17/06
ACB
Valencia
#2
W
89-75
89
75
+14
69avg 81
H20/06
ACB
Valencia
#2
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
89avg 81
H22/06
ACB
Valencia
#2
W
81-70
81
70
+11
80avg 81
A25/06
ACB
Tenerife
#3
W
72-71
72
71
+1
61avg 81
H27/09
Supercopa ACB
Valencia
#1
L
94-98
94
98
-4
86avg 81
H28/09
Supercopa ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-33
27-23
34-25
24-22
29-14
22-17
24-22
24-28
23-19
23-22
21-17
23-17
13-23
21-25
26-22
24-16
16-22
23-21
22-20
25-16
19-15
16-17
29-28
25-15
22-25
26-20
21-23
20-21
23-19
16-21
21-9
21-21
18-17
17-28
20-15
17-11
27-24
17-27
25-18
25-29
174.3Avg total
90.9Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)90.983.4174.3+7.580%
Last 5 (5)87.682.0169.6+5.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.098.0192.0-4.00%
vs Similar (13)85.882.0167.8+3.869%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)87.879.0166.8+8.893%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +3.2+3.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +3.2+3.2
Virtus BolognaReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezia
#8
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A25/05
Lega A
Venezia
#8
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H27/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H31/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H02/06
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A05/06
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A07/06
Lega A
Brescia
#2
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H12/06
Lega A
Brescia
#2
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H14/06
Lega A
Brescia
#2
W
50-28
50
28
+22
A17/06
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H27/09
Lega A - Super Cup
78.1Avg total
40.1Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.638.780.3+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.838.479.2+2.467%-
Last 30 away (15)42.339.181.4+3.353%-
Last 10 (10)40.138.078.1+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)43.438.281.6+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)35.046.281.2-11.225%-
vs Similar (12)41.238.679.8+2.750%-
vs Weaker (13)43.636.379.9+7.377%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#7
L
54-56
54
56
-2
A06/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H11/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H13/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A15/06
ACB
Unicaja
#4
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A17/06
ACB
Valencia
#2
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H20/06
ACB
Valencia
#2
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H22/06
ACB
Valencia
#2
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A25/06
ACB
Tenerife
#3
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H27/09
Supercopa ACB
Valencia
#1
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H28/09
Supercopa ACB
85.7Avg total
42.5Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.039.781.7+2.457%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.840.683.4+2.156%-
Last 30 away (14)41.238.679.8+2.657%-
Last 10 (10)42.543.285.7-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)40.242.682.8-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)44.051.095.0-7.00%-
vs Similar (13)42.441.383.7+1.154%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)42.137.179.2+4.967%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 79.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.521.1
56.3%
60.4%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.07.1
32.3%
35.9%21.3
🏀 Free throws19.716.4
83.2%
78.2%16.4
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 90.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.022.0
57.9%
60.4%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.09.7
34.6%
35.9%29.1
🏀 Free throws22.417.4
77.7%
78.2%17.4
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Virtus Bologna
LWWWWWLWWL
Real Madrid
LWWWWWLWWW
#17
League position
#2
+3.5
Net rating
+11.0
116.4
Offensive rating
119.8
112.9
Defensive rating
108.8
53.4%
Effective FG%
55.4%
54.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.2%
16.4%
Turnover %
13.8%
33.7%
Off. rebound %
31.9%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.34
32.3%
3-point %
34.6%
59.9%
Assist %
47.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence116.4 · 119.8Defence112.9 · 108.8Shooting53.4% · 55.4%3-point %32.3% · 34.6%Ball care16.4% · 13.8%Off. rebounds33.7% · 31.9%Free throws0.33 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Virtus Bologna   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Virtus Bologna wins
5
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
13/03/25Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid67-80
12/11/24Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna98-86
15/03/24Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid74-89
09/11/23Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna100-74
24/03/23Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid79-96
27/10/22Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna91-95
Virtus Bolognalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/09/25HOlimpia Milano86-93 OT
17/06/25ABrescia96-74
14/06/25HBrescia75-65
12/06/25HBrescia90-87
07/06/25AOlimpia Milano84-78
05/06/25AOlimpia Milano78-68
02/06/25HOlimpia Milano66-85
31/05/25HOlimpia Milano68-67
27/05/25HVenezia86-84
25/05/25AVenezia78-84
Real Madridlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/09/25HValencia94-98
27/09/25HTenerife72-71
25/06/25AValencia81-70
22/06/25HValencia102-96 OT
20/06/25HValencia89-75
17/06/25AUnicaja86-79
15/06/25AUnicaja84-86
13/06/25HUnicaja90-75
11/06/25HUnicaja99-81
06/06/25ABaskonia112-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virtus Bologna
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Hapoel Tel-Aviv110100%103.087.0+16.0
2 Dubai110100%89.076.0+13.0
3 Olimpia Milano110100%92.082.0+10.0
4 Panathinaikos110100%87.079.0+8.0
5 Anadolu Efes110100%85.078.0+7.0
6 Olympiacos110100%102.096.0+6.0
7 Baskonia1010%96.0102.0-6.0
8 Maccabi Tel Aviv1010%78.085.0-7.0
9 Bayern1010%79.087.0-8.0
10 Crvena zvezda1010%82.092.0-10.0
11 Partizan1010%76.089.0-13.0
12 Barcelona1010%87.0103.0-16.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Virtus Bologna1424171974
Real Madrid1916151868
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