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Adelaide Lightning W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 10 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 04:30
Final 95-98 (OT)
26-13 23-23 19-25 20-27 7-10
Position#7
Record2-6
FormWLLLL
Points / game66.9
Allowed / game71.5
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Perth Lynx W 🏆
Australia
Position#4
Record4-3
FormWLLWL
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game82.0
AustraliaNBL W· Adelaide
Women2023-24
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W
21 Dec 2025
ADEL82
PERT109
19 Oct 2025
ADEL72
PERT75
01 Feb 2025
ADEL87
PERT69
09 Nov 2024
ADEL78
PERT92
10 Dec 2023
ADEL95
PERT98
02 Mar 2023
ADEL93
PERT97
16 Feb 2023
ADEL82
PERT108
02 Jan 2022
ADEL88
PERT86
06 Dec 2020
ADEL78
PERT80
30 Jan 2020
ADEL75
PERT74
06 Dec 2019
ADEL79
PERT69
30 Dec 2018
ADEL74
PERT67
02 Dec 2017
ADEL74
PERT89
12 Oct 2017
ADEL87
PERT81
27 Jan 2017
ADEL60
PERT80
12 Nov 2016
ADEL63
PERT75
08 Nov 2015
ADEL52
PERT65
01 Feb 2015
ADEL71
PERT58
04 Jan 2015
ADEL78
PERT61
03 Nov 2013
ADEL93
PERT41
05 Oct 2013
ADEL65
PERT69
08 Dec 2012
ADEL85
PERT48
08 Oct 2011
ADEL97
PERT70
19 Feb 2011
ADEL100
PERT103
17 Oct 2010
ADEL83
PERT74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#6
L
91-101
91
101
-10
no box
A24/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
93-97
93
97
-4
no box
H02/03
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
60-68
60
68
-8
53avg 58
H01/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
82-79
82
79
+3
71avg 58
A05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
85-92
85
92
-7
86avg 58
A11/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
67-56
67
56
+11
49avg 58
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
51-74
51
74
-23
36avg 58
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
61-67
61
67
-6
52avg 58
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
65-70 OT
65
70
-5
no box
H02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
64-66
64
66
-2
56avg 58
H06/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-32
23-26
28-15
17-28
20-25
18-32
27-25
28-15
24-13
11-13
13-25
12-17
31-20
27-23
12-16
12-20
27-17
17-25
28-24
13-26
14-15
25-11
8-9
20-21
14-27
11-11
17-22
9-14
19-15
11-19
21-16
10-17
15-19
8-9
15-22
22-10
21-21
11-13
12-15
20-17
148.9Avg total
71.9Scored
77.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)66.971.5138.4-4.625%
Season at home (5)61.466.8128.2-5.420%
Season away (3)76.079.3155.3-3.333%
Last 10 (10)71.977.0148.9-5.120%
Last 5 (5)61.666.6128.2-5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)74.180.6154.7-6.517%
vs Similar ◀ (8)76.681.9158.5-5.212%
vs Weaker (4)85.082.0167.0+3.075%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
107-94
107
94
+13
no box
A04/03
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
68-81
68
81
-13
no box
A09/03
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
84-91
84
91
-7
no box
H12/03
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
W
85-71
85
71
+14
78avg 73
H03/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
92-85
92
85
+7
81avg 73
H11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
86-76
86
76
+10
81avg 73
H17/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
92-94
92
94
-2
82avg 73
A22/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
76-92
76
92
-16
72avg 73
H25/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
80-63
80
63
+17
70avg 73
A03/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
62-93
62
93
-31
49avg 73
H07/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-21
26-23
23-29
28-21
19-21
18-27
20-16
11-17
22-27
21-26
21-15
20-23
20-13
18-16
18-18
29-24
17-27
25-17
24-28
26-13
24-20
22-22
21-14
19-20
32-17
22-17
17-30
21-30
23-22
26-23
10-28
17-19
19-19
23-9
14-25
24-10
22-17
17-26
19-23
4-27
167.2Avg total
83.2Scored
84.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)81.982.0163.9-0.157%
Season at home (5)80.283.4163.6-3.260%
Season away (2)86.078.5164.5+7.550%
Last 10 (10)83.284.0167.2-0.850%
Last 5 (5)79.283.6162.8-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)81.991.3173.2-9.411%
vs Similar ◀ (9)83.183.7166.8-0.656%
vs Weaker (12)90.678.4169.0+12.292%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -0.5-0.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -0.5-0.5
Adelaide Lightning WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#6
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A24/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
38-57
38
57
-19
H02/03
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H01/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
58-43
58
43
+15
A05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A11/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H06/12
NBL W
75.6Avg total
37.0Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.640.579.1-1.833%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.837.874.5-1.035%-
Last 30 away (13)41.144.085.1-2.931%-
Last 10 (10)37.038.675.6-1.640%-
Last 5 (5)29.832.061.8-2.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)37.640.177.6-2.528%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)39.641.180.8-1.538%-
vs Weaker (4)41.541.082.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A04/03
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A09/03
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-53
43
53
-10
H12/03
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H03/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H17/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
54-34
54
34
+20
A22/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H25/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
42-28
42
28
+14
A03/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H07/12
NBL W
85.6Avg total
44.6Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.542.687.1+1.957%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.841.884.5+1.053%-
Last 30 away (13)46.843.890.5+3.062%-
Last 10 (10)44.641.085.6+3.660%-
Last 5 (5)46.038.484.4+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)43.447.891.2-4.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.041.684.6+1.444%-
vs Weaker (12)46.439.686.0+6.883%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 66.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.9 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.9 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.418.4
43.4%
47.3%36.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.96.3
27.5%
32.7%18.9
🏀 Free throws15.010.6
70.5%
74.3%10.6
They take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 81.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.1 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.720.6
48.2%
47.3%41.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.08.1
28.1%
32.7%24.4
🏀 Free throws19.615.7
80.3%
74.3%15.7
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/7 games with a box score before 10 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLLWLWLLL
Perth Lynx W
LWLLWWWLLW
#7
League position
#4
-5.5
Net rating
+1.2
85.0
Offensive rating
99.8
90.5
Defensive rating
98.6
42.7%
Effective FG%
45.7%
43.4%
Opp. effective FG%
47.3%
23.0%
Turnover %
16.7%
28.4%
Off. rebound %
27.7%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.27
27.5%
3-point %
28.1%
63.6%
Assist %
62.2%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence85.0 · 99.8Defence90.5 · 98.6Shooting42.7% · 45.7%3-point %27.5% · 28.1%Ball care23.0% · 16.7%Off. rebounds28.4% · 27.7%Free throws0.23 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Adelaide Lightning W wins
7
Perth Lynx W wins
DateGameScore
11/11/23Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W92-85
02/03/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W93-97
16/02/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W82-108
30/12/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W82-72
09/03/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-73
07/03/22Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W104-79
02/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W88-86
06/12/20Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W78-80
15/11/20Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W69-74
30/01/20Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W75-74
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/23HSydney W64-66
02/12/23HBendigo W65-70 OT
29/11/23ATownsville W61-67
23/11/23HTownsville W51-74
18/11/23HSouthside W67-56
11/11/23APerth Lynx W85-92
05/11/23ACanberra Capitals W82-79
01/11/23HGeelong United W60-68
02/03/23HPerth Lynx W93-97
24/02/23ASydney W91-101
Perth Lynx Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/23HGeelong United W62-93
03/12/23AGeelong United W80-63
25/11/23HTownsville W76-92
22/11/23ASouthside W92-94
17/11/23HBendigo W86-76
11/11/23HAdelaide Lightning W92-85
03/11/23HSydney W85-71
12/03/23HTownsville W84-91
09/03/23ATownsville W68-81
04/03/23ACanberra Capitals W107-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL25%
HomeLWLLL20%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %25%20%33%
Points / game66.961.476.0
Allowed / game71.566.879.3
Point differential-4.6-5.4-3.3
Avg total138.4128.2155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %12%20%0%
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL57%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games752
Win %57%60%50%
Points / game81.980.286.0
Allowed / game82.083.478.5
Point differential-0.1-3.2+7.5
Avg total163.9163.6164.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%40%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Geelong United W76186%79.972.4+7.4
2 Townsville W65183%80.869.3+11.5
3 Southside W75271%79.472.0+7.4
4 Perth Lynx W74357%81.982.0-0.1
5 Sydney W74357%72.777.0-4.3
6 Bendigo W72529%70.775.7-5.0
7 Adelaide Lightning W82625%66.971.5-4.6
8 Canberra Capitals W7070%75.385.3-10.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Adelaide Lightning W26231920795
Perth Lynx W132325271098
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