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Adelaide Lightning W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 07:30
Final 82-109
29-31 17-30 20-25 16-23
Position#7
Record4-8
FormLLLWL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game82.2
vs
Position#2
Record8-3
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.7
Allowed / game76.2
AustraliaNBL WRound 10· Adelaide Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W
21 Dec 2025
ADEL82
PERT109
19 Oct 2025
ADEL72
PERT75
01 Feb 2025
ADEL87
PERT69
09 Nov 2024
ADEL78
PERT92
10 Dec 2023
ADEL95
PERT98
02 Mar 2023
ADEL93
PERT97
16 Feb 2023
ADEL82
PERT108
02 Jan 2022
ADEL88
PERT86
06 Dec 2020
ADEL78
PERT80
30 Jan 2020
ADEL75
PERT74
06 Dec 2019
ADEL79
PERT69
30 Dec 2018
ADEL74
PERT67
02 Dec 2017
ADEL74
PERT89
12 Oct 2017
ADEL87
PERT81
27 Jan 2017
ADEL60
PERT80
12 Nov 2016
ADEL63
PERT75
08 Nov 2015
ADEL52
PERT65
01 Feb 2015
ADEL71
PERT58
04 Jan 2015
ADEL78
PERT61
03 Nov 2013
ADEL93
PERT41
05 Oct 2013
ADEL65
PERT69
08 Dec 2012
ADEL85
PERT48
08 Oct 2011
ADEL97
PERT70
19 Feb 2011
ADEL100
PERT103
17 Oct 2010
ADEL83
PERT74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-65
73
65
+8
68avg 64
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
88-71
88
71
+17
88avg 64
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-103
69
103
-34
52avg 64
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
74-82
74
82
-8
60avg 64
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 64
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 64
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 64
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 64
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 64
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 64
A19/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
19-19
17-10
15-15
24-14
22-19
28-10
14-28
22-26
21-21
15-31
11-25
19-25
17-20
15-22
23-15
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
156.5Avg total
76.4Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)76.082.2158.2-6.233%
Season at home (6)78.379.3157.7-1.050%
Season away (6)73.785.0158.7-11.317%
Last 10 (10)76.480.1156.5-3.740%
Last 5 (5)72.277.4149.6-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)67.579.3146.8-11.88%
vs Similar (15)80.278.3158.5+1.960%
vs Weaker (2)73.069.5142.5+3.550%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#8
W
73-67
73
67
+6
68avg 75
H26/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
77-76
77
76
+1
68avg 75
A01/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
70-79
70
79
-9
56avg 75
H04/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
79-76
79
76
+3
64avg 75
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
69-88
69
88
-19
59avg 75
A11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
79-64
79
64
+15
76avg 75
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
58-87
58
87
-29
46avg 75
A23/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
91-67
91
67
+24
83avg 75
A29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
98-81
98
81
+17
93avg 75
H05/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
97-81
97
81
+16
97avg 75
A14/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-22
18-20
14-16
25-9
20-15
20-22
18-20
19-19
17-26
26-18
7-18
20-17
18-22
21-20
13-24
27-10
25-23
19-15
14-26
11-24
21-19
17-16
28-15
13-14
20-16
13-21
10-23
15-27
23-17
20-19
27-21
21-10
33-21
30-14
23-25
12-21
25-26
24-23
25-19
23-13
155.7Avg total
79.1Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)78.776.2154.9+2.573%
Season at home (5)79.873.4153.2+6.480%
Season away (6)77.878.5156.3-0.767%
Last 10 (10)79.176.6155.7+2.570%
Last 5 (5)84.676.0160.6+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.378.3152.7-4.033%
vs Similar (6)87.287.3174.5-0.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)83.277.0160.2+6.381%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
Adelaide Lightning WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
84.4Avg total
42.0Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.940.879.6-1.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.241.381.5-1.147%-
Last 30 away (15)37.540.277.7-2.727%-
Last 10 (10)42.042.484.4-0.450%-
Last 5 (5)40.442.683.0-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)37.242.179.3-4.823%-
vs Similar (15)40.939.980.8+1.153%-
vs Weaker (2)34.039.073.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#8
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H26/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A01/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H04/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A23/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
63-35
63
35
+28
H05/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A14/12
NBL W
82.1Avg total
42.6Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.340.884.1+2.553%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.439.483.9+5.057%-
Last 30 away (16)42.341.984.2+0.450%-
Last 10 (10)42.639.582.1+3.150%-
Last 5 (5)45.238.483.6+6.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)40.738.379.0+2.367%-
vs Similar (6)43.245.388.5-2.217%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)43.739.883.5+3.962%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 69.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.019.0
48.7%
47.8%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.56.9
33.7%
32.8%20.7
🏀 Free throws14.110.9
77.3%
73.3%10.9
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.620.2
47.4%
47.8%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.17.8
29.9%
32.8%23.4
🏀 Free throws20.514.5
70.7%
73.3%14.5
They take 68.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LWLLLWLLWW
Perth Lynx W
WWWLWLWLWW
#7
League position
#2
-7.6
Net rating
+3.2
94.2
Offensive rating
99.8
101.8
Defensive rating
96.7
49.3%
Effective FG%
46.4%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
44.6%
22.0%
Turnover %
17.4%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.30
33.7%
3-point %
29.9%
58.7%
Assist %
58.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence94.2 · 99.8Defence101.8 · 96.7Shooting49.3% · 46.4%3-point %33.7% · 29.9%Ball care22.0% · 17.4%Off. rebounds24.9% · 29.6%Free throws0.24 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT
18/11/25HBendigo W74-82
15/11/25ATownsville W69-103
09/11/25HSydney W88-71
01/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/25ATownsville W97-81
05/12/25HSouthside W98-81
29/11/25ACanberra Capitals W91-67
23/11/25ABendigo W58-87
16/11/25HBendigo W79-64
11/11/25AGeelong Venom W69-88
09/11/25HSouthside W79-76
04/11/25HTownsville W70-79
01/11/25AGeelong Venom W77-76
26/10/25HSydney W73-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL33%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayLLLWL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %33%50%17%
Points / game76.078.373.7
Allowed / game82.279.385.0
Point differential-6.2-1.0-11.3
Avg total158.2157.7158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%17%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %8%17%0%
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW73%
HomeWLWWW80%
AwayWLLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %73%80%67%
Points / game78.779.877.8
Allowed / game76.273.478.5
Point differential+2.5+6.4-0.7
Avg total154.9153.2156.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%40%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1412286%75.967.0+8.9
2 Townsville W1210283%89.870.6+19.2
3 Perth Lynx W118373%78.776.2+2.5
4 Canberra Capitals W126650%75.077.8-2.8
5 Southside W124833%74.378.5-4.2
6 Adelaide Lightning W124833%76.082.2-6.2
7 Sydney W1331023%73.286.2-12.9
8 Geelong Venom W1431121%75.479.6-4.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2917201682
Perth Lynx W31302523109
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