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Canberra Capitals W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 21 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 86-73
24-14 19-19 23-18 20-22
Position#8
Record1-8
FormLLLLW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game83.7
Canberra Capitals W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record3-8
FormLLLLW
Points / game70.5
Allowed / game73.6
AustraliaNBL W· National Convention Centre
Women2023-24
Meetings · Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W
09 Dec 2025
CANB76
ADEL71
11 Jan 2025
CANB91
ADEL76
21 Dec 2023
CANB86
ADEL73
05 Nov 2023
CANB79
ADEL82
18 Feb 2023
CANB72
ADEL78
02 Feb 2023
CANB97
ADEL90
19 Dec 2021
CANB62
ADEL88
04 Dec 2020
CANB85
ADEL65
01 Feb 2020
CANB73
ADEL71
13 Oct 2019
CANB90
ADEL83
16 Feb 2019
CANB93
ADEL73
09 Feb 2019
CANB88
ADEL67
21 Oct 2018
CANB79
ADEL75
17 Dec 2017
CANB88
ADEL87
08 Oct 2017
CANB84
ADEL77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canberra Capitals W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
94-107
94
107
-13
no box
H04/03
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
79-82
79
82
-3
70avg 63
H05/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
79-104
79
104
-25
68avg 63
H08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
81-86
81
86
-5
68avg 63
A15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
73-85
73
85
-12
65avg 63
A18/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
81-87 OT
81
87
-6
no box
A26/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
64-81
64
81
-17
58avg 63
A02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
70-72
70
72
-2
55avg 63
H08/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
55-84
55
84
-29
37avg 63
H10/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
84-72
84
72
+12
80avg 63
H15/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-30
23-26
29-23
21-28
20-31
23-27
16-12
20-12
20-27
20-22
15-28
24-27
26-29
19-23
15-16
21-18
16-20
17-21
21-24
19-20
20-16
18-23
15-17
23-20
10-24
21-14
17-21
16-22
14-22
18-22
23-5
15-23
19-18
13-19
11-25
12-22
20-16
26-21
19-21
19-14
162.0Avg total
76.0Scored
86.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)74.083.7157.7-9.711%
Season at home (5)73.482.8156.2-9.420%
Season away (4)74.884.8159.5-10.00%
Last 10 (10)76.086.0162.0-10.010%
Last 5 (5)70.879.2150.0-8.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)75.588.6164.1-13.210%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
82-79
82
79
+3
71avg 60
A05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
85-92
85
92
-7
86avg 60
A11/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
67-56
67
56
+11
49avg 60
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
51-74
51
74
-23
36avg 60
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
61-67
61
67
-6
52avg 60
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
65-70 OT
65
70
-5
no box
H02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
64-66
64
66
-2
56avg 60
H06/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
95-98 OT
95
98
-3
no box
H10/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
77-81
77
81
-4
71avg 60
A15/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
68-59
68
59
+9
64avg 60
A17/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-20
27-23
12-16
12-20
27-17
17-25
28-24
13-26
14-15
25-11
8-9
20-21
14-27
11-11
17-22
9-14
19-15
11-19
21-16
10-17
15-19
8-9
15-22
22-10
21-21
11-13
12-15
20-17
26-13
23-23
19-25
20-27
12-19
20-15
19-23
26-24
20-22
18-15
15-14
15-8
145.7Avg total
71.5Scored
74.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)70.573.6144.1-3.227%
Season at home (6)67.072.0139.0-5.017%
Season away (5)74.675.6150.2-1.040%
Last 10 (10)71.574.2145.7-2.730%
Last 5 (5)73.874.8148.6-1.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)74.179.2153.4-5.124%
vs Similar (9)78.783.7162.3-5.011%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)85.082.0167.0+3.075%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -1.7-1.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -1.7-1.7
Canberra Capitals WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
44-56
44
56
-12
H04/03
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
43-58
43
58
-15
H05/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
45-52
45
52
-7
A15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A18/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A26/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
32-44
32
44
-12
H08/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H15/12
NBL W
83.5Avg total
38.4Scored
45.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.444.983.3-6.617%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.246.687.9-5.425%-
Last 30 away (14)35.143.078.1-7.97%-
Last 10 (10)38.445.183.5-6.710%-
Last 5 (5)35.839.074.8-3.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)38.444.983.3-6.617%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
58-43
58
43
+15
A05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A11/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H06/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H10/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A15/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A17/12
NBL W
72.2Avg total
37.0Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.939.678.5-0.740%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.238.276.4+0.041%-
Last 30 away (13)39.841.581.2-1.738%-
Last 10 (10)37.035.272.2+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)34.833.868.6+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.338.876.1-1.535%-
vs Similar (9)40.740.681.2+0.144%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)41.541.082.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 72.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.618.0
45.4%
47.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.98.2
30.7%
32.7%24.8
🏀 Free throws16.411.6
71.0%
74.3%11.6
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 67.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.7 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.818.3
43.9%
47.3%36.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.16.7
27.6%
32.7%20.0
🏀 Free throws15.010.6
70.4%
74.3%10.6
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/9 games with a box score before 21 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Canberra Capitals W
WLLLLLLLLL
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLLLLLWLW
#8
League position
#7
-12.5
Net rating
-4.2
93.7
Offensive rating
86.9
106.1
Defensive rating
91.0
45.7%
Effective FG%
43.0%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
43.3%
19.9%
Turnover %
22.1%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
28.9%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.23
30.7%
3-point %
27.6%
59.0%
Assist %
65.3%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence93.7 · 86.9Defence106.1 · 91.0Shooting45.7% · 43.0%3-point %30.7% · 27.6%Ball care19.9% · 22.1%Off. rebounds28.7% · 28.9%Free throws0.25 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Canberra Capitals W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Canberra Capitals W wins
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
17/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W81-50
30/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W67-80
19/12/21Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W62-88
04/12/20Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W85-65
11/11/20Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W85-73 OT
01/02/20Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W73-71
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/12/23HGeelong United W84-72
10/12/23HTownsville W55-84
08/12/23HSydney W70-72
02/12/23ASouthside W64-81
26/11/23AGeelong United W81-87 OT
18/11/23ATownsville W73-85
15/11/23ASydney W81-86
08/11/23HSouthside W79-104
05/11/23HAdelaide Lightning W79-82
04/03/23HPerth Lynx W94-107
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23AGeelong United W68-59
15/12/23ABendigo W77-81
10/12/23HPerth Lynx W95-98 OT
06/12/23HSydney W64-66
02/12/23HBendigo W65-70 OT
29/11/23ATownsville W61-67
23/11/23HTownsville W51-74
18/11/23HSouthside W67-56
11/11/23APerth Lynx W85-92
05/11/23ACanberra Capitals W82-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW11%
HomeLLLLW20%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %11%20%0%
Points / game74.073.474.8
Allowed / game83.782.884.8
Point differential-9.7-9.4-10.0
Avg total157.7156.2159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%25%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW27%
HomeWLLLL17%
AwayWLLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %27%17%40%
Points / game70.567.074.6
Allowed / game73.672.075.6
Point differential-3.2-5.0-1.0
Avg total144.1139.0150.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %18%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W98189%82.766.2+16.4
2 Perth Lynx W96367%85.480.8+4.7
3 Southside W96367%80.476.7+3.8
4 Geelong United W106460%74.874.5+0.3
5 Sydney W105550%70.176.5-6.4
6 Bendigo W93633%73.077.6-4.6
7 Adelaide Lightning W113827%70.573.6-3.2
8 Canberra Capitals W91811%74.083.7-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Canberra Capitals W2419232086
Adelaide Lightning W1419182273
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