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Adelaide Lightning W vs Canberra Capitals W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 28 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 04:30
Final 84-67
23-26 16-15 18-12 27-14
Position#7
Record5-13
FormWLLLW
Points / game70.8
Allowed / game77.4
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Canberra Capitals W
Australia
Position#8
Record4-12
FormWWLLL
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game83.4
AustraliaNBL W· Adelaide
Women2023-24
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W
20 Jan 2026
ADEL61
CANB67
01 Nov 2025
ADEL73
CANB65
03 Jan 2025
ADEL77
CANB88
15 Dec 2024
ADEL68
CANB67
28 Jan 2024
ADEL84
CANB67
30 Nov 2022
ADEL90
CANB80
17 Mar 2022
ADEL81
CANB50
30 Jan 2022
ADEL67
CANB80
11 Nov 2020
ADEL85
CANB73
27 Dec 2019
ADEL78
CANB68
13 Feb 2019
ADEL74
CANB73
14 Dec 2018
ADEL93
CANB73
02 Dec 2018
ADEL91
CANB83
25 Oct 2017
ADEL80
CANB77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Canberra Capitals W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
95-98 OT
95
98
-3
no box
H10/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
77-81
77
81
-4
71avg 60
A15/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
68-59
68
59
+9
64avg 60
A17/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
L
73-86
73
86
-13
59avg 60
A21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
62-87
62
87
-25
45avg 60
H30/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
W
74-67
74
67
+7
68avg 60
H05/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
68-84
68
84
-16
55avg 60
A07/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
68-96
68
96
-28
51avg 60
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
65-88
65
88
-23
56avg 60
A17/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
90-75
90
75
+15
87avg 60
A20/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-13
23-23
19-25
20-27
12-19
20-15
19-23
26-24
20-22
18-15
15-14
15-8
14-24
19-19
18-23
22-20
24-19
16-22
15-31
7-15
24-19
12-14
11-22
27-12
14-20
14-17
21-31
19-16
15-33
25-18
10-20
18-25
11-27
16-11
19-22
19-28
17-26
26-15
23-14
24-20
156.1Avg total
74.0Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)70.877.4148.2-6.628%
Season at home (8)67.273.2140.5-6.025%
Season away (10)73.780.7154.4-7.030%
Last 10 (10)74.082.1156.1-8.130%
Last 5 (5)73.082.0155.0-9.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)71.578.3149.8-6.825%
vs Similar (10)75.384.1159.4-8.810%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)80.883.5164.2-2.850%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#6
L
70-72
70
72
-2
55avg 64
H08/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
55-84
55
84
-29
37avg 64
H10/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
84-72
84
72
+12
80avg 64
H15/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
86-73
86
73
+13
80avg 64
H21/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
90-98
90
98
-8
82avg 64
A27/12
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
75-65
75
65
+10
68avg 64
A06/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
81-75
81
75
+6
74avg 64
H11/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
66-88
66
88
-22
54avg 64
A14/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
65-90
65
90
-25
46avg 64
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
75-93
75
93
-18
60avg 64
A25/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-22
18-22
23-5
15-23
19-18
13-19
11-25
12-22
20-16
26-21
19-21
19-14
24-14
19-19
23-18
20-22
27-15
19-27
24-33
20-23
14-20
16-14
21-14
24-17
17-19
20-17
19-23
25-16
24-22
21-23
11-30
10-13
17-18
13-24
19-27
16-21
14-25
26-29
16-14
19-25
155.7Avg total
74.7Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)75.283.4158.7-8.225%
Season at home (7)76.380.3156.6-4.043%
Season away (9)74.485.9160.3-11.411%
Last 10 (10)74.781.0155.7-6.340%
Last 5 (5)72.482.2154.6-9.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)76.285.3161.5-9.020%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -5.5-5.5Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -1.6-1.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -5.5-5.5Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -1.6-1.6
Adelaide Lightning WCanberra Capitals W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H10/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A15/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A17/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H30/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H05/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A07/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A17/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A20/01
NBL W
75.7Avg total
36.6Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.539.677.1-2.140%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.738.175.9-0.447%-
Last 30 away (15)37.341.178.4-3.733%-
Last 10 (10)36.639.175.7-2.540%-
Last 5 (5)34.840.074.8-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)36.838.875.6-2.038%-
vs Similar (10)37.239.977.1-2.740%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)41.242.083.2-0.850%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#6
L
32-44
32
44
-12
H08/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H15/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H21/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A27/12
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A06/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H11/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A14/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
30-42
30
42
-12
A19/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A25/01
NBL W
78.5Avg total
38.1Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.542.981.4-4.423%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.243.784.9-2.540%-
Last 30 away (15)35.842.077.8-6.27%-
Last 10 (10)38.140.478.5-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)36.442.278.6-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)38.542.981.4-4.423%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 69.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.219.6
45.4%
47.3%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.27.2
29.8%
32.7%21.6
🏀 Free throws12.78.7
68.5%
74.3%8.7
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 73.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.618.5
42.4%
47.3%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.47.7
30.3%
32.7%23.1
🏀 Free throws17.313.6
78.6%
74.3%13.6
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLLWLLWLL
Canberra Capitals W
LLLWWLWWLL
#7
League position
#8
-11.3
Net rating
-8.5
89.4
Offensive rating
95.9
100.7
Defensive rating
104.4
45.1%
Effective FG%
43.6%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.7%
20.1%
Turnover %
18.6%
25.2%
Off. rebound %
33.4%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.25
29.8%
3-point %
30.3%
55.2%
Assist %
50.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence89.4 · 95.9Defence100.7 · 104.4Shooting45.1% · 43.6%3-point %29.8% · 30.3%Ball care20.1% · 18.6%Off. rebounds25.2% · 33.4%Free throws0.19 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Canberra Capitals W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
4
Canberra Capitals W wins
DateGameScore
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
17/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W81-50
30/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W67-80
19/12/21Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W62-88
04/12/20Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W85-65
11/11/20Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W85-73 OT
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/24ATownsville W90-75
17/01/24ASydney W65-88
10/01/24ABendigo W68-96
07/01/24APerth Lynx W68-84
05/01/24HSydney W74-67
30/12/23HSouthside W62-87
21/12/23ACanberra Capitals W73-86
17/12/23AGeelong United W68-59
15/12/23ABendigo W77-81
10/12/23HPerth Lynx W95-98 OT
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/24ABendigo W75-93
19/01/24ASydney W65-90
14/01/24ABendigo W66-88
11/01/24HPerth Lynx W81-75
06/01/24ASouthside W75-65
27/12/23APerth Lynx W90-98
21/12/23HAdelaide Lightning W86-73
15/12/23HGeelong United W84-72
10/12/23HTownsville W55-84
08/12/23HSydney W70-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW28%
HomeLLLLW25%
AwayLLLLW30%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %28%25%30%
Points / game70.867.273.7
Allowed / game77.473.280.7
Point differential-6.6-6.0-7.0
Avg total148.2140.5154.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%12%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %11%25%0%
Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL25%
HomeLLWWW43%
AwayLWLLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %25%43%11%
Points / game75.276.374.4
Allowed / game83.480.385.9
Point differential-8.2-4.0-11.4
Avg total158.7156.6160.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%29%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %6%0%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W1712571%79.971.9+8.0
2 Geelong United W1811761%75.671.7+3.8
3 Southside W1710759%79.476.6+2.8
4 Sydney W1911858%74.774.5+0.2
5 Perth Lynx W189950%83.984.1-0.2
6 Bendigo W178947%76.876.9-0.1
7 Adelaide Lightning W1851328%70.877.4-6.6
8 Canberra Capitals W1641225%75.283.4-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2316182784
Canberra Capitals W2615121467
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