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Pato vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 74-80
13-15 20-21 15-24 26-20
Position#12
Record11-13
FormWWLWL
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game78.5
vs
Position#11
Record10-13
FormLWWWL
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game80.4
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Pato v Sao Paulo
17 Oct 2024
PATO81
SAO 88
07 Feb 2024
PATO74
SAO 80
14 Jan 2023
PATO69
SAO 84
23 Mar 2022
PATO62
SAO 82
05 Dec 2020
PATO71
SAO 80
03 Feb 2020
PATO86
SAO 106
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
L
77-91
77
91
-14
67avg 69
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
75-84
75
84
-9
66avg 69
A22/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
79-63
79
63
+16
77avg 69
H27/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
78-74
78
74
+4
65avg 69
H29/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
77-65
77
65
+12
76avg 69
A06/01
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
82-75
82
75
+7
77avg 69
A08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
97-91 OT
97
91
+6
no box
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
67-76
67
76
-9
56avg 69
H15/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
97-86
97
86
+11
92avg 69
H24/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-88
80
88
-8
71avg 69
H05/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-25
23-14
10-28
28-24
20-23
14-23
27-16
14-22
13-15
23-13
18-9
25-26
24-16
18-17
20-20
16-21
15-19
26-16
12-15
24-15
22-15
13-21
26-16
21-23
21-17
20-20
19-26
21-18
15-21
16-23
24-18
12-14
24-19
27-30
26-23
20-14
20-28
14-25
18-16
28-19
160.2Avg total
80.9Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)77.278.5155.7-1.346%
Season at home (12)79.876.7156.5+3.258%
Season away (12)74.680.3154.9-5.833%
Last 10 (10)80.979.3160.2+1.660%
Last 5 (5)84.683.2167.8+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.880.8155.7-6.033%
vs Similar ◀ (10)77.880.3158.1-2.540%
vs Weaker (8)84.175.0159.1+9.188%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#19
W
72-63
72
63
+9
66avg 70
A23/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
78-74
78
74
+4
73avg 70
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
61-63
61
63
-2
52avg 70
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
no box
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
84-98
84
98
-14
73avg 70
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
84-107
84
107
-23
79avg 70
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
81-75
81
75
+6
74avg 70
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
90-71
90
71
+19
92avg 70
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
87-84
87
84
+3
80avg 70
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
82-86
82
86
-4
75avg 70
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-17
15-20
28-12
16-14
20-30
21-16
20-16
17-12
16-9
16-19
15-16
14-19
21-23
17-24
33-21
13-16
21-24
26-25
15-22
22-27
13-24
26-29
23-31
22-23
18-20
25-16
20-22
18-17
31-12
16-16
26-24
17-19
20-22
23-20
23-22
21-20
24-22
22-24
17-20
19-20
162.2Avg total
80.8Scored
81.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)78.080.4158.4-2.543%
Season at home (12)79.079.7158.7-0.742%
Season away (11)76.881.3158.1-4.545%
Last 10 (10)80.881.4162.2-0.650%
Last 5 (5)84.884.6169.4+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)79.989.4169.3-9.531%
vs Similar ◀ (12)78.580.8159.3-2.333%
vs Weaker (5)75.271.2146.4+4.080%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -0.8-0.8
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -0.8-0.8
PatoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A22/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H27/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H29/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A06/01
NBB
Cerrado
#17
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H15/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H24/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
34-53
34
53
-19
H05/02
NBB
78.4Avg total
38.4Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.739.277.8-0.547%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.438.577.9+0.947%-
Last 30 away (15)37.939.877.7-1.947%-
Last 10 (10)38.440.078.4-1.650%-
Last 5 (5)38.443.882.2-5.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)36.640.977.5-4.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.638.776.3-1.140%-
vs Weaker (8)43.137.180.2+6.075%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#19
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A23/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A29/01
Champions League Americas
81.6Avg total
40.4Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.142.280.3-4.123%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.743.082.7-3.321%-
Last 30 away (16)36.741.578.2-4.825%-
Last 10 (10)40.441.281.6-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)43.641.084.6+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)40.043.283.2-3.231%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)37.343.881.2-6.58%-
vs Weaker (5)35.035.870.8-0.840%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.720.0
54.5%
51.8%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.4
33.2%
33.9%28.2
🏀 Free throws15.010.1
67.3%
72.6%10.1
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 78.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.819.2
58.5%
51.8%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.88.9
32.0%
33.9%26.7
🏀 Free throws18.813.7
72.9%
72.6%13.7
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
LWLWWWWWLL
Sao Paulo
LWWWLLLLWW
#12
League position
#11
+0.9
Net rating
-1.0
111.4
Offensive rating
108.0
110.6
Defensive rating
108.9
52.5%
Effective FG%
53.7%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
15.0%
Turnover %
16.6%
32.9%
Off. rebound %
22.3%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.2%
3-point %
32.0%
58.8%
Assist %
58.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence111.4 · 108.0Defence110.6 · 108.9Shooting52.5% · 53.7%3-point %33.2% · 32.0%Ball care15.0% · 16.6%Off. rebounds32.9% · 22.3%Free throws0.23 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Pato   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pato wins
8
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
20/11/23Sao Paulo v Pato89-67
14/01/23Pato v Sao Paulo69-84
28/10/22Sao Paulo v Pato99-90 OT
23/03/22Pato v Sao Paulo62-82
12/01/22Sao Paulo v Pato86-77
01/03/21Sao Paulo v Pato84-85
05/12/20Pato v Sao Paulo71-80
03/02/20Pato v Sao Paulo86-106
29/12/19Sao Paulo v Pato87-63
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/02/24HSao Jose80-88
24/01/24HBotafogo97-86
15/01/24HVasco67-76
13/01/24HFlamengo97-91 OT
08/01/24ACerrado82-75
06/01/24ABrasilia77-65
29/12/23HCaxias do Sul78-74
27/12/23HUniao Corinthians79-63
22/12/23AMinas75-84
18/12/23APinheiros77-91
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/01/24ANacional82-86
28/01/24AQuimsa87-84
23/01/24HPaulistano90-71
13/01/24ACearense81-75
11/01/24AUnifacisa84-107
08/01/24HFranca84-98
06/01/24HBauru89-93 OT
29/12/23HMogi61-63
27/12/23HSao Jose78-74
23/12/23ABrasilia72-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL46%
HomeWWLWL58%
AwayLLLWW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %46%58%33%
Points / game77.279.874.6
Allowed / game78.576.780.3
Point differential-1.3+3.2-5.8
Avg total155.7156.5154.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%25%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %4%8%0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW43%
HomeWLLLW42%
AwayWLWLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %43%42%45%
Points / game78.079.076.8
Allowed / game80.479.781.3
Point differential-2.5-0.7-4.5
Avg total158.4158.7158.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)40% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2320387%86.472.0+14.4
2 Flamengo2420483%86.274.7+11.6
3 Franca2218482%88.276.7+11.5
4 Vasco2316770%74.371.0+3.3
5 Bauru2315865%79.777.8+1.8
6 Paulistano2214864%74.672.5+2.1
7 Unifacisa2415962%83.279.4+3.9
8 Cearense24131154%79.877.6+2.2
9 Sao Jose23121152%79.776.3+3.4
10 Corinthians Paulista23111248%79.378.6+0.7
11 Pato24111346%77.278.5-1.3
12 Pinheiros22101245%77.178.3-1.2
13 Sao Paulo23101343%78.080.4-2.5
14 Uniao Corinthians2481633%72.581.1-8.5
15 Caxias do Sul2271532%72.280.1-7.9
16 Cerrado2361726%73.676.3-2.7
17 Botafogo2461825%77.085.7-8.7
18 Brasilia2341917%70.785.7-15.0
19 Mogi2231914%73.080.1-7.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato1320152674
Sao Paulo1521242080
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