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Nacional vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 29 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:10
Final 86-82
22-24 24-22 20-17 20-19
Position#7
Record1-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game85.3
vs
Position#6
Record1-2
FormLLWWW
Points / game78.7
Allowed / game95.0
EuropeChampions League Americas· Larre Borges
Other2023-24
Meetings · Nacional v Sao Paulo
29 Jan 2024
NACI86
SAO 82
01 Feb 2022
NACI73
SAO 89
12 Dec 2021
NACI73
SAO 98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Penarol
#2
L
77-97
77
97
-20
70avg 85
H13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Sao Paulo
#6
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
89avg 85
A17/12
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
72avg 85
A18/12
Champions League Americas
Malvin
#5
W
84-83
84
83
+1
79avg 85
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
94-82
94
82
+12
95avg 85
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
111-61
111
61
+50
111avg 85
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
99-79
99
79
+20
96avg 85
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
111-105 OT
111
105
+6
no box
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
86-61
86
61
+25
83avg 85
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Quimsa
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
63avg 85
H27/01
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-20
17-26
18-22
12-29
17-8
26-23
21-24
12-21
18-18
24-13
13-28
23-27
29-14
15-24
18-25
22-20
24-17
34-12
14-26
22-27
32-13
31-25
25-14
23-9
16-24
30-13
32-21
21-21
18-26
25-30
36-21
19-21
20-22
21-14
26-8
19-17
19-23
18-18
20-25
21-20
173.1Avg total
90.7Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.785.3167.0-3.733%
Season at home (1)78.086.0164.0-8.00%
Season away (2)83.585.0168.5-1.550%
Last 10 (10)90.782.4173.1+8.370%
Last 5 (5)97.078.4175.4+18.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)78.582.8161.2-4.233%
vs Similar ◀ (7)88.786.7175.4+2.086%
vs Weaker (11)96.078.7174.7+17.391%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Cerrado
#17
L
74-82
74
82
-8
66avg 70
A21/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
72-63
72
63
+9
66avg 70
A23/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
78-74
78
74
+4
73avg 70
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
61-63
61
63
-2
52avg 70
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
no box
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
84-98
84
98
-14
73avg 70
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
84-107
84
107
-23
79avg 70
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
81-75
81
75
+6
74avg 70
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
90-71
90
71
+19
92avg 70
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
87-84
87
84
+3
80avg 70
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
18-25
17-21
23-17
13-17
15-20
28-12
16-14
20-30
21-16
20-16
17-12
16-9
16-19
15-16
14-19
21-23
17-24
33-21
13-16
21-24
26-25
15-22
22-27
13-24
26-29
23-31
22-23
18-20
25-16
20-22
18-17
31-12
16-16
26-24
17-19
20-22
23-20
23-22
21-20
161.0Avg total
80.0Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)78.795.0173.7-16.333%
Season at home (1)84.089.0173.0-5.00%
Season away (2)76.098.0174.0-22.050%
Last 10 (10)80.081.0161.0-1.050%
Last 5 (5)85.287.0172.2-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)79.989.3169.2-9.429%
vs Similar ◀ (11)78.280.4158.5-2.236%
vs Weaker (5)75.271.2146.4+4.080%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -0.1-0.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -0.1-0.1
NacionalSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penarol
#2
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Sao Paulo
#6
W
43-31
43
31
+12
A17/12
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
42-31
42
31
+11
A18/12
Champions League Americas
Malvin
#5
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
58-29
58
29
+29
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
63-38
63
38
+25
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
43-56
43
56
-13
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Quimsa
#3
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H27/01
Champions League Americas
84.7Avg total
46.4Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.241.685.8+2.657%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.141.686.7+3.457%-
Last 30 away (16)43.441.584.9+1.956%-
Last 10 (10)46.438.384.7+8.180%-
Last 5 (5)46.041.687.6+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)38.741.179.8-2.433%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)45.346.191.4-0.943%-
vs Weaker (11)49.539.288.7+10.491%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cerrado
#17
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A21/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A23/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A28/01
Champions League Americas
80.2Avg total
39.2Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.841.879.6-4.027%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.542.481.9-2.927%-
Last 30 away (15)36.141.277.3-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)39.241.080.2-1.840%-
Last 5 (5)43.841.685.4+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.842.582.3-2.736%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)36.543.680.2-7.19%-
vs Weaker (5)35.035.870.8-0.840%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 82.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.5
55.1%
52.9%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.210.0
39.7%
33.2%30.0
🏀 Free throws19.213.4
69.8%
73.9%13.4
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 79.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.219.6
59.0%
52.9%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.68.7
31.5%
33.2%26.1
🏀 Free throws20.113.9
69.2%
73.9%13.9
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
LWWWWWWLWL
Sao Paulo
WWWLLLLWWL
#7
League position
#6
+11.2
Net rating
-0.5
115.6
Offensive rating
107.1
104.4
Defensive rating
107.6
56.9%
Effective FG%
53.7%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
17.3%
Turnover %
16.5%
30.7%
Off. rebound %
21.8%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.33
39.7%
3-point %
31.5%
65.4%
Assist %
55.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence115.6 · 107.1Defence104.4 · 107.6Shooting56.9% · 53.7%3-point %39.7% · 31.5%Ball care17.3% · 16.5%Off. rebounds30.7% · 21.8%Free throws0.32 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Nacional   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nacional wins
3
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
17/12/23Sao Paulo v Nacional84-89 OT
13/03/22Sao Paulo v Nacional101-81
01/02/22Nacional v Sao Paulo73-89
12/12/21Nacional v Sao Paulo73-98
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/24HQuimsa78-86
23/01/24HCordon86-61
19/01/24AAguada111-105 OT
16/01/24ATrouville99-79
13/01/24HGoes111-61
10/01/24ALarre Borges94-82
05/01/24AMalvin84-83
18/12/23AQuimsa78-86
17/12/23ASao Paulo89-84 OT
13/12/23HPenarol77-97
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/24AQuimsa87-84
23/01/24HPaulistano90-71
13/01/24ACearense81-75
11/01/24AUnifacisa84-107
08/01/24HFranca84-98
06/01/24HBauru89-93 OT
29/12/23HMogi61-63
27/12/23HSao Jose78-74
23/12/23ABrasilia72-63
21/12/23ACerrado74-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Champions League Americas 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeL0%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%0%50%
Points / game81.778.083.5
Allowed / game85.386.085.0
Point differential-3.7-8.0-1.5
Avg total167.0164.0168.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %33%0%50%
Sao Paulo
Champions League Americas 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeL0%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%0%50%
Points / game78.784.076.0
Allowed / game95.089.098.0
Point differential-16.3-5.0-22.0
Avg total173.7173.0174.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %33%100%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca440100%99.881.8+18.0
2 Quimsa43175%92.077.0+15.0
3 Flamengo43175%74.273.5+0.8
4 Halcones de Xalapa42250%85.578.8+6.8
5 Obras Sanitarias42250%92.588.5+4.0
6 Hebraica y Macabi42250%75.874.0+1.8
7 Gladiadores42250%79.882.0-2.2
8 Real Esteli42250%79.884.2-4.5
9 Nacional31233%81.785.3-3.7
10 Sao Paulo31233%78.795.0-16.3
11 Boca Juniors41325%67.069.5-2.5
12 U. De Concepcion4040%72.094.0-22.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional2224202086
Sao Paulo2422171982
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