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Sao Paulo vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 00:40
Final 93-76
15-9 32-22 24-21 22-24
Position#6
Record1-3
FormWWWLW
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game92.8
vs
Position#7
Record2-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game84.5
EuropeChampions League Americas· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Nacional
11 Feb 2024
SAO 93
NACI76
17 Dec 2023
SAO 84
NACI89
13 Mar 2022
SAO 101
NACI81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
W
78-74
78
74
+4
73avg 70
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
61-63
61
63
-2
52avg 70
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
no box
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
84-98
84
98
-14
73avg 70
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
84-107
84
107
-23
79avg 70
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
81-75
81
75
+6
74avg 70
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
90-71
90
71
+19
92avg 70
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
87-84
87
84
+3
80avg 70
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
82-86
82
86
-4
75avg 70
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Pato
#12
W
80-74
80
74
+6
78avg 70
A07/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-30
21-16
20-16
17-12
16-9
16-19
15-16
14-19
21-23
17-24
33-21
13-16
21-24
26-25
15-22
22-27
13-24
26-29
23-31
22-23
18-20
25-16
20-22
18-17
31-12
16-16
26-24
17-19
20-22
23-20
23-22
21-20
24-22
22-24
17-20
19-20
15-13
21-20
24-15
20-26
164.1Avg total
81.6Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.592.8172.2-13.225%
Season at home (1)84.089.0173.0-5.00%
Season away (3)78.094.0172.0-16.033%
Last 10 (10)81.682.5164.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)84.078.0162.0+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)78.989.0167.9-10.133%
vs Similar ◀ (13)78.680.3158.9-1.738%
vs Weaker (5)75.271.2146.4+4.080%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Malvin
#5
W
84-83
84
83
+1
79avg 84
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
94-82
94
82
+12
95avg 84
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
111-61
111
61
+50
111avg 84
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
99-79
99
79
+20
96avg 84
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
111-105 OT
111
105
+6
no box
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
86-61
86
61
+25
83avg 84
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Quimsa
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
63avg 84
H27/01
Champions League Americas
Sao Paulo
#6
W
86-82
86
82
+4
80avg 84
H29/01
Champions League Americas
Bigua
#7
W
71-67 OT
71
67
+4
no box
H03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
68-79
68
79
-11
65avg 84
A07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-14
15-24
18-25
22-20
24-17
34-12
14-26
22-27
32-13
31-25
25-14
23-9
16-24
30-13
32-21
21-21
18-26
25-30
36-21
19-21
20-22
21-14
26-8
19-17
19-23
18-18
20-25
21-20
22-24
24-22
20-17
20-19
21-14
9-13
17-19
12-13
14-24
16-14
17-22
21-19
167.3Avg total
88.8Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)82.884.5167.2-1.850%
Season at home (2)82.084.0166.0-2.050%
Season away (2)83.585.0168.5-1.550%
Last 10 (10)88.878.5167.3+10.380%
Last 5 (5)77.875.0152.8+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)78.181.0159.1-2.933%
vs Similar ◀ (9)86.185.3171.4+0.878%
vs Weaker (12)93.977.8171.7+16.292%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +1.4+1.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +1.4+1.4
Sao PauloNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A11/01
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A13/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H23/01
NBB
Quimsa
#3
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Pato
#12
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A07/02
NBB
82.0Avg total
41.2Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.741.679.3-3.827%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.242.381.5-3.223%-
Last 30 away (17)36.641.077.6-4.429%-
Last 10 (10)41.240.882.0+0.450%-
Last 5 (5)43.037.080.0+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)39.442.481.8-3.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)37.243.080.2-5.815%-
vs Weaker (5)35.035.870.8-0.840%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#5
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
58-29
58
29
+29
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
63-38
63
38
+25
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
43-56
43
56
-13
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Quimsa
#3
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H27/01
Champions League Americas
Sao Paulo
#6
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H29/01
Champions League Americas
Bigua
#7
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A07/02
Liga Uruguaya
82.4Avg total
43.8Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.940.484.3+3.560%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.439.984.3+4.664%-
Last 30 away (16)43.440.884.2+2.656%-
Last 10 (10)43.838.682.4+5.260%-
Last 5 (5)36.837.674.4-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)38.838.477.2+0.344%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.745.288.9-1.633%-
vs Weaker (12)47.938.286.1+9.892%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 79.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.519.2
59.1%
52.9%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.38.7
30.7%
33.2%26.1
🏀 Free throws19.414.9
76.8%
73.9%14.9
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 80.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.920.0
54.2%
52.9%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.78.9
37.6%
33.2%26.7
🏀 Free throws18.813.5
71.8%
73.9%13.5
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WLWWWLLLLW
Nacional
LWWLWWWWWW
#6
League position
#7
+1.0
Net rating
+12.0
107.9
Offensive rating
112.8
106.9
Defensive rating
100.9
53.0%
Effective FG%
55.0%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
47.1%
16.5%
Turnover %
17.0%
22.3%
Off. rebound %
30.2%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.31
30.7%
3-point %
37.6%
57.3%
Assist %
67.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence107.9 · 112.8Defence106.9 · 100.9Shooting53.0% · 55.0%3-point %30.7% · 37.6%Ball care16.5% · 17.0%Off. rebounds22.3% · 30.2%Free throws0.32 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Sao Paulo wins
2
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
29/01/24Nacional v Sao Paulo86-82
17/12/23Sao Paulo v Nacional84-89 OT
13/03/22Sao Paulo v Nacional101-81
01/02/22Nacional v Sao Paulo73-89
12/12/21Nacional v Sao Paulo73-98
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/24APato80-74
29/01/24ANacional82-86
28/01/24AQuimsa87-84
23/01/24HPaulistano90-71
13/01/24ACearense81-75
11/01/24AUnifacisa84-107
08/01/24HFranca84-98
06/01/24HBauru89-93 OT
29/12/23HMogi61-63
27/12/23HSao Jose78-74
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/24APenarol68-79
03/02/24HBigua71-67 OT
29/01/24HSao Paulo86-82
27/01/24HQuimsa78-86
23/01/24HCordon86-61
19/01/24AAguada111-105 OT
16/01/24ATrouville99-79
13/01/24HGoes111-61
10/01/24ALarre Borges94-82
05/01/24AMalvin84-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
Champions League Americas 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeL0%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%0%33%
Points / game79.584.078.0
Allowed / game92.889.094.0
Point differential-13.2-5.0-16.0
Avg total172.2173.0172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %25%100%0%
Nacional
Champions League Americas 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game82.882.083.5
Allowed / game84.584.085.0
Point differential-1.8-2.0-1.5
Avg total167.2166.0168.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %25%0%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca65183%97.282.7+14.5
2 Flamengo54180%76.874.6+2.2
3 Quimsa43175%92.077.0+15.0
4 Halcones de Xalapa64267%88.879.5+9.3
5 Obras Sanitarias64267%91.085.8+5.2
6 Hebraica y Macabi42250%75.874.0+1.8
7 Nacional42250%82.884.5-1.8
8 Real Esteli63350%80.586.8-6.3
9 Gladiadores62433%81.784.7-3.0
10 Sao Paulo41325%79.592.8-13.2
11 Boca Juniors51420%69.473.0-3.6
12 U. De Concepcion6060%70.890.5-19.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo1532242293
Nacional922212476
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