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Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 04 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 118-108
28-33 36-21 29-26 25-28
Position#24
Record7-15
FormLLLWW
Points / game111.1
Allowed / game116.1
vs
Position#17
Record14-7
FormWWWLW
Points / game124.3
Allowed / game118.4
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat
29 Dec 2026
DAL v MIA
upcoming
03 Dec 2025
DAL118
MIA108
13 Feb 2025
DAL118
MIA113
07 Mar 2024
DAL114
MIA108
20 Jan 2023
DAL115
MIA90
02 Nov 2021
DAL110
MIA125
01 Jan 2021
DAL93
MIA83
14 Dec 2019
DAL118
MIA122
13 Feb 2019
DAL101
MIA112
29 Jan 2018
DAL88
MIA95
27 Feb 2017
DAL96
MIA89
03 Feb 2016
DAL90
MIA93
09 Nov 2014
DAL96
MIA105
18 Feb 2014
DAL106
MIA117
20 Dec 2012
DAL95
MIA110
25 Dec 2011
DAL94
MIA105
09 Jun 2011
DAL112
MIA103
07 Jun 2011
DAL86
MIA83
05 Jun 2011
DAL86
MIA88
27 Nov 2010
DAL106
MIA95
20 Feb 2010
DAL97
MIA91
01 Apr 2009
DAL98
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
127-133 OT
127
133
-6
109avg 103
H15/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
138-133 OT
138
133
+5
132avg 103
H17/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
96-120
96
120
-24
76avg 103
A18/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
111-113
111
113
-2
105avg 103
H20/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
118-115
118
115
+3
117avg 103
H22/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
96-102
96
102
-6
79avg 103
H23/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
102-106
102
106
-4
89avg 103
A25/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
119-129
119
129
-10
111avg 103
A29/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
114-110
114
110
+4
99avg 103
A30/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
131-121
131
121
+10
130avg 103
A02/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-34
24-28
31-31
28-21
29-37
28-24
28-30
33-27
21-34
23-27
22-37
30-22
25-24
25-28
35-35
26-26
25-34
24-29
36-22
33-30
22-21
25-22
26-33
23-26
19-20
25-32
28-28
30-26
22-28
40-32
32-38
25-31
25-28
24-28
34-27
31-27
27-41
42-27
33-36
29-17
233.4Avg total
115.2Scored
118.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)111.1116.1227.2-5.032%
Season at home (13)112.0116.4228.4-4.431%
Season away (9)109.9115.7225.6-5.833%
Last 10 (10)115.2118.2233.4-3.040%
Last 5 (5)112.4113.6226.0-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)110.4120.9231.3-10.522%
vs Similar (10)109.9109.5219.4+0.450%
vs Weaker (2)109.0111.0220.0-2.050%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
116-130
116
130
-14
110avg 106
H13/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
132-140
132
140
-8
124avg 106
A15/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-113
115
113
+2
102avg 106
H18/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
110-96
110
96
+14
103avg 106
H20/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
143-107
143
107
+36
139avg 106
A22/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
127-117
127
117
+10
125avg 106
A23/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
106-102
106
102
+4
96avg 106
H25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
106-103
106
103
+3
107avg 106
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
135-138
135
138
-3
126avg 106
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
140-123
140
123
+17
139avg 106
H02/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-29
31-37
28-27
19-37
35-32
33-46
36-32
28-30
25-20
30-31
28-31
32-31
29-20
20-25
23-29
38-22
36-32
34-20
32-23
41-32
37-27
34-40
28-26
28-24
20-19
32-25
28-28
26-30
29-27
24-20
28-30
25-26
23-36
36-35
32-37
44-30
35-24
41-32
38-26
26-41
239.9Avg total
123.0Scored
116.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)124.3118.4242.8+5.967%
Season at home (12)124.1117.2241.2+6.983%
Season away (9)124.7120.1244.8+4.644%
Last 10 (10)123.0116.9239.9+6.170%
Last 5 (5)122.8116.6239.4+6.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)108.9123.2232.1-14.322%
vs Similar (15)121.8117.5239.3+4.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)112.795.7208.3+17.0100%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +4.1+4.1Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: +0.4+0.4
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +4.1+4.1Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: +0.4+0.4
Dallas MavericksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
55-62
55
62
-7
H15/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
57-61
57
61
-4
H17/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
44-61
44
61
-17
A18/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
50-52
50
52
-2
H20/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
49-63
49
63
-14
H22/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H23/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A25/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
62-60
62
60
+2
A29/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A30/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
69-68
69
68
+1
A02/12
NBA
110.4Avg total
52.6Scored
57.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.058.2112.3-4.227%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.256.6110.9-2.419%-
Last 30 away (14)53.860.1113.9-6.336%-
Last 10 (10)52.657.8110.4-5.230%-
Last 5 (5)54.255.8110.0-1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)52.659.9112.4-7.317%-
vs Similar (10)56.655.8112.4+0.840%-
vs Weaker (2)54.555.5110.0-1.050%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H13/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
68-78
68
78
-10
A15/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H18/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H20/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
70-52
70
52
+18
A22/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A23/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
59-71
59
71
-12
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H02/12
NBA
119.9Avg total
62.2Scored
57.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.758.3118.0+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.155.9112.0+0.175%-
Last 30 away (14)63.861.0124.8+2.843%-
Last 10 (10)62.257.7119.9+4.580%-
Last 5 (5)62.257.0119.2+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)53.064.1117.1-11.122%-
vs Similar (15)64.861.1125.9+3.767%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)56.842.599.3+14.3100%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 115.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.728.0
51.2%
54.8%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.513.1
35.9%
35.8%39.3
🏀 Free throws26.119.9
76.2%
78.1%19.9
They take 91.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 123.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.230.7
51.9%
54.8%61.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.913.9
38.7%
35.8%41.7
🏀 Free throws25.519.9
78.0%
78.1%19.9
They take 95.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
WWLLLWLLWL
Miami Heat
WLWWWWWWLL
#24
League position
#17
-2.8
Net rating
+5.7
108.4
Offensive rating
114.0
111.3
Defensive rating
108.3
52.2%
Effective FG%
54.2%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
13.7%
Turnover %
12.6%
22.7%
Off. rebound %
26.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.9%
3-point %
38.7%
59.1%
Assist %
67.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence108.4 · 114.0Defence111.3 · 108.3Shooting52.2% · 54.2%3-point %35.9% · 38.7%Ball care13.7% · 12.6%Off. rebounds22.7% · 26.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Dallas Mavericks wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/12/25ADenver Nuggets131-121
30/11/25ALos Angeles Clippers114-110
29/11/25ALos Angeles Lakers119-129
25/11/25AMiami Heat102-106
23/11/25HMemphis Grizzlies96-102
22/11/25HNew Orleans Pelicans118-115
20/11/25HNew York Knicks111-113
18/11/25AMinnesota Timberwolves96-120
17/11/25HPortland Trail Blazers138-133 OT
15/11/25HLos Angeles Clippers127-133 OT
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/12/25HLos Angeles Clippers140-123
30/11/25HDetroit Pistons135-138
27/11/25HMilwaukee Bucks106-103
25/11/25HDallas Mavericks106-102
23/11/25APhiladelphia 76ers127-117
22/11/25AChicago Bulls143-107
20/11/25HGolden State Warriors110-96
18/11/25HNew York Knicks115-113
15/11/25ANew York Knicks132-140
13/11/25HCleveland Cavaliers116-130

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW32%
HomeLWLWL31%
AwayLLLWW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22139
Win %32%31%33%
Points / game111.1112.0109.9
Allowed / game116.1116.4115.7
Point differential-5.0-4.4-5.8
Avg total227.2228.4225.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%8%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %9%15%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeWWWLW83%
AwayWLLWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21129
Win %67%83%44%
Points / game124.3124.1124.7
Allowed / game118.4117.2120.1
Point differential+5.9+6.9+4.6
Avg total242.8241.2244.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)83% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %5%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2221195%122.3107.0+15.3
2 Detroit Pistons2217577%118.3113.2+5.1
3 Los Angeles Lakers2015575%119.0115.8+3.2
4 Houston Rockets1914574%121.7110.3+11.4
5 Denver Nuggets2115671%125.1116.0+9.0
6 San Antonio Spurs2115671%119.0113.8+5.2
7 Toronto Raptors2215768%117.7113.1+4.6
8 New York Knicks2114767%120.2113.0+7.2
9 Miami Heat2114767%124.3118.4+5.9
10 Minnesota Timberwolves2113862%120.6115.4+5.1
11 Orlando Magic2213959%119.2114.3+4.9
12 Phoenix Suns2213959%117.0113.7+3.4
13 Boston Celtics2112957%115.3111.2+4.1
14 Cleveland Cavaliers23131057%119.1116.0+3.1
15 Atlanta Hawks23131057%116.8115.7+1.1
16 Philadelphia 76ers2011955%118.3118.0+0.3
17 Golden State Warriors22111150%114.4114.0+0.4
18 Milwaukee Bucks23101343%115.8117.8-2.0
19 Chicago Bulls2191243%119.1122.7-3.5
20 Portland Trail Blazers2291341%118.4120.6-2.2
21 Memphis Grizzlies2291341%113.6117.0-3.3
22 Utah Jazz2071335%118.5125.3-6.9
23 Dallas Mavericks2271532%111.1116.1-5.0
24 Los Angeles Clippers2261627%112.5117.5-5.1
25 Charlotte Hornets2261627%114.7119.9-5.2
26 Brooklyn Nets2151624%109.0117.7-8.8
27 Sacramento Kings2251723%111.0122.8-11.8
28 Indiana Pacers2241818%110.6120.1-9.5
29 Washington Wizards2031715%112.8127.2-14.4
30 New Orleans Pelicans2231914%112.6123.3-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Dallas Mavericks28362925118
Miami Heat33212628108
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