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Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 28 Feb 2017
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 96-89
22-31 33-23 23-15 18-20
Position#24
Record25-40
FormWLLLW
Points / game97.4
Allowed / game100.3
Dallas Mavericks 🏆
USA
vs
Miami Heat
USA
Position#13
Record31-36
FormLLWWW
Points / game102.1
Allowed / game101.7
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat
29 Dec 2026
DAL v MIA
upcoming
03 Dec 2025
DAL118
MIA108
13 Feb 2025
DAL118
MIA113
17 Jul 2024
DAL79
MIA92
07 Mar 2024
DAL114
MIA108
20 Jan 2023
DAL115
MIA90
02 Nov 2021
DAL110
MIA125
01 Jan 2021
DAL93
MIA83
14 Dec 2019
DAL118
MIA122
13 Feb 2019
DAL101
MIA112
29 Jan 2018
DAL88
MIA95
11 Jul 2017
DAL78
MIA73
27 Feb 2017
DAL96
MIA89
03 Feb 2016
DAL90
MIA93
09 Nov 2014
DAL96
MIA105
18 Feb 2014
DAL106
MIA117
20 Dec 2012
DAL95
MIA110
25 Dec 2011
DAL94
MIA105
09 Jun 2011
DAL112
MIA103
07 Jun 2011
DAL86
MIA83
05 Jun 2011
DAL86
MIA88
27 Nov 2010
DAL106
MIA95
20 Feb 2010
DAL97
MIA91
01 Apr 2009
DAL98
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
113-95
113
95
+18
H02/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
108-104
108
104
+4
A04/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#16
L
87-110
87
110
-23
A07/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
113-114
113
114
-1
H08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
112-105 OT
112
105
+7
H10/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
112-80
112
80
+32
H12/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#4
L
98-111
98
111
-13
H14/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
91-98
91
98
-7
A16/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
84-97
84
97
-13
A25/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#22
W
96-83
96
83
+13
H26/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
30-24
31-22
32-26
35-22
25-25
24-29
24-28
24-29
13-30
30-23
20-28
27-32
26-32
29-22
31-28
20-23
22-31
26-24
32-22
29-23
32-12
23-17
28-28
28-30
22-31
32-22
16-28
17-27
18-35
28-16
28-20
22-26
18-23
23-22
21-26
24-30
23-19
20-14
29-20
201.1Avg total
101.4Scored
99.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)97.4100.3197.7-2.938%
Season at home (32)100.197.7197.8+2.453%
Season away (33)94.8102.8197.6-8.124%
Last 10 (10)101.499.7201.1+1.750%
Last 5 (5)96.293.8190.0+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)103.0104.9207.9-1.950%
vs Similar (20)100.397.3197.6+3.055%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#11
W
116-93
116
93
+23
H02/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
125-102
125
102
+23
H05/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
115-113
115
113
+2
A07/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
W
106-88
106
88
+18
A09/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
W
108-99
108
99
+9
A11/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
L
109-117
109
117
-8
A12/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
107-116
107
116
-9
H14/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
117-109
117
109
+8
A16/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#11
W
108-90
108
90
+18
A25/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#15
W
113-95
113
95
+18
H26/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-22
33-25
32-24
22-22
32-17
32-35
36-23
25-27
40-33
31-24
22-31
22-25
28-15
27-29
26-19
25-25
20-22
29-31
25-19
34-27
27-27
21-27
28-30
33-33
28-36
29-24
30-27
20-29
34-28
24-17
30-28
29-36
25-24
38-25
24-17
21-24
18-23
35-31
30-25
30-16
214.6Avg total
112.4Scored
102.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (67)102.1101.7203.9+0.446%
Season at home (33)104.8101.7206.5+3.148%
Season away (34)99.5101.8201.3-2.344%
Last 10 (10)112.4102.2214.6+10.280%
Last 5 (5)110.8105.4216.2+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)100.0104.5204.5-4.550%
vs Similar (17)104.6100.3204.9+4.359%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)106.6106.0212.6+0.664%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +5.5+5.5Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -0.3-0.3
Dallas MavericksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
50-47
50
47
+3
H02/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
60-47
60
47
+13
A04/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#16
L
37-59
37
59
-22
A07/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
53-64
53
64
-11
H08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H10/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
61-35
61
35
+26
H12/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#4
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H14/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
35-62
35
62
-27
A16/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A25/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#22
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H26/02
NBA
100.2Avg total
47.5Scored
52.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.651.6102.2-1.040%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.350.4101.7+0.947%-
Last 30 away (15)49.952.9102.8-2.933%-
Last 10 (10)47.552.7100.2-5.230%-
Last 5 (5)46.651.297.8-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)49.655.7105.3-6.120%-
vs Similar (20)51.149.6100.7+1.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#11
W
62-47
62
47
+15
H02/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
64-52
64
52
+12
H05/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
71-57
71
57
+14
A07/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
W
55-44
55
44
+11
A09/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A11/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
L
48-54
48
54
-6
A12/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
57-60
57
60
-3
H14/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
58-45
58
45
+13
A16/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#11
W
63-49
63
49
+14
A25/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#15
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H26/02
NBA
109.5Avg total
58.0Scored
51.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.353.4107.8+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.353.9109.2+1.446%-
Last 30 away (17)53.653.1106.6+0.547%-
Last 10 (10)58.051.5109.5+6.560%-
Last 5 (5)55.852.4108.2+3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)50.050.5100.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (17)54.851.7106.5+3.159%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)54.456.6111.0-2.327%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 101.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.526.9
50.3%
50.2%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.8
37.4%
35.7%32.4
🏀 Free throws19.215.2
79.2%
77.0%15.2
They take 82.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 112.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.130.7
52.8%
50.2%61.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.711.3
39.4%
35.7%33.9
🏀 Free throws21.817.1
78.4%
77.0%17.1
They take 86.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
WLLLWWLLWW
Miami Heat
WWWLLWWWWW
#24
League position
#13
+1.8
Net rating
+10.3
106.3
Offensive rating
113.2
104.5
Defensive rating
103.0
52.3%
Effective FG%
54.9%
51.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
11.2%
Turnover %
15.1%
15.3%
Off. rebound %
27.4%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.25
37.4%
3-point %
39.4%
56.8%
Assist %
53.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence106.3 · 113.2Defence104.5 · 103.0Shooting52.3% · 54.9%3-point %37.4% · 39.4%Ball care11.2% · 15.1%Off. rebounds15.3% · 27.4%Free throws0.23 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Dallas Mavericks wins
8
Miami Heat wins
DateGameScore
20/01/17Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks99-95
10/07/16Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks64-83
04/02/16Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat90-93
02/01/16Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks106-82
31/01/15Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks72-93
10/11/14Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat96-105
19/02/14Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat106-117
16/11/13Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks110-104
03/01/13Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks119-109 OT
21/12/12Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat95-110
Dallas Maverickslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/17HNew Orleans Pelicans96-83
25/02/17AMinnesota Timberwolves84-97
16/02/17ADetroit Pistons91-98
14/02/17HBoston Celtics98-111
12/02/17HOrlando Magic112-80
10/02/17HUtah Jazz112-105 OT
08/02/17HPortland Trail Blazers113-114
07/02/17ADenver Nuggets87-110
04/02/17APortland Trail Blazers108-104
02/02/17HPhiladelphia 76ers113-95
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/17HIndiana Pacers113-95
25/02/17AAtlanta Hawks108-90
16/02/17AHouston Rockets117-109
14/02/17HOrlando Magic107-116
12/02/17APhiladelphia 76ers109-117
11/02/17ABrooklyn Nets108-99
09/02/17AMilwaukee Bucks106-88
07/02/17AMinnesota Timberwolves115-113
05/02/17HPhiladelphia 76ers125-102
02/02/17HAtlanta Hawks116-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW38%
HomeLWWLW53%
AwayWWLLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653233
Win %38%53%24%
Points / game97.4100.194.8
Allowed / game100.397.7102.8
Point differential-2.9+2.4-8.1
Avg total197.7197.8197.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%31%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (14)33% (3)55% (11)
Overtime %6%9%3%
Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW46%
HomeWWWLW48%
AwayWWLWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games673334
Win %46%48%44%
Points / game102.1104.899.5
Allowed / game101.7101.7101.8
Point differential+0.4+3.1-2.3
Avg total203.9206.5201.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%30%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won41% (17)25% (8)56% (9)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors66561085%117.6105.0+12.6
2 San Antonio Spurs64491577%106.097.8+8.1
3 Houston Rockets66462070%115.3108.4+6.8
4 Cleveland Cavaliers64432167%110.2106.0+4.2
5 Boston Celtics67432464%107.6105.0+2.7
6 Utah Jazz65402562%100.295.5+4.6
7 Los Angeles Clippers65392660%106.6104.5+2.1
8 Washington Wizards64382659%107.7104.7+2.9
9 Toronto Raptors66392759%107.6103.8+3.8
10 Memphis Grizzlies66392759%101.399.8+1.6
11 Atlanta Hawks66382858%102.8102.9-0.1
12 Oklahoma City Thunder63362757%106.0105.6+0.4
13 Indiana Pacers65333251%105.4106.2-0.8
14 Chicago Bulls66333350%103.0102.9+0.1
15 Detroit Pistons65313448%100.7100.7+0.0
16 Miami Heat67313646%102.1101.7+0.4
17 Milwaukee Bucks64293545%103.8104.4-0.6
18 Denver Nuggets67303745%109.8110.8-1.0
19 Portland Trail Blazers65283743%106.7109.1-2.4
20 Minnesota Timberwolves66283842%104.6104.7-0.1
21 Charlotte Hornets66283842%103.3103.8-0.5
22 New York Knicks66283842%106.1108.9-2.8
23 Sacramento Kings64273742%102.8105.4-2.6
24 Dallas Mavericks65254038%97.4100.3-2.9
25 New Orleans Pelicans66244236%103.3107.2-4.0
26 Philadelphia 76ers66244236%101.2107.1-6.0
27 Orlando Magic67244336%99.6105.9-6.3
28 Phoenix Suns65224334%106.7111.6-4.9
29 Los Angeles Lakers68214731%104.4110.4-6.1
30 Brooklyn Nets64105416%104.9114.1-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Dallas Mavericks2233231896
Miami Heat3123152089
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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