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North Carolina vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 57-62
31-33 26-29
Position#117
Record19-11
FormLLWWW
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game71.6
North Carolina
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#39
Record22-8
FormWWWWW
Points / game72.1
Allowed / game64.0
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · North Carolina v Duke
07 Feb 2026
NORT71
DUKE68
08 Mar 2025
NORT69
DUKE82
03 Feb 2024
NORT93
DUKE84
04 Mar 2023
NORT57
DUKE62
05 Feb 2022
NORT67
DUKE87
06 Mar 2021
NORT91
DUKE73
08 Feb 2020
NORT96
DUKE98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#180
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A25/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#72
L
64-65
64
65
-1
H02/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
57-63
57
63
-6
A04/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#142
L
85-92
85
92
-7
A08/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
91-71
91
71
+20
H11/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H14/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
63-59
63
59
+4
A23/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
W
71-63
71
63
+8
H25/02
NCAA
Florida State
#342
W
77-66
77
66
+11
A28/02
NCAA
1H
2H
38-34
34-34
33-34
31-31
32-33
25-30
25-47
60-45
42-33
49-38
34-35
38-45
31-32
38-45
19-27
44-32
42-26
29-37
43-25
34-41
142.5Avg total
72.1Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)77.171.6148.7+5.563%
Season at home (15)79.868.6148.4+11.287%
Season away (15)74.474.7149.1-0.340%
Last 10 (10)72.170.4142.5+1.750%
Last 5 (5)70.469.0139.4+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)94.384.3178.7+10.067%
vs Similar ◀ (18)73.472.7146.1+0.744%
vs Weaker (9)78.865.2144.0+13.6100%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#241
W
86-43
86
43
+43
A28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#142
W
75-73
75
73
+2
H01/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
W
63-57
63
57
+6
H04/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
59-81
59
81
-22
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
L
62-69 OT
62
69
-7
A11/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H15/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#180
W
77-55
77
55
+22
A18/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H21/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H26/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
43-25
43-18
41-34
34-39
33-32
30-25
26-40
33-41
27-25
31-33
31-23
37-41
40-27
37-28
42-33
37-29
43-32
38-33
33-29
38-38
135.7Avg total
72.1Scored
63.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)72.164.0136.2+8.173%
Season at home (17)76.560.9137.4+15.6100%
Season away (13)66.468.2134.5-1.838%
Last 10 (10)72.163.6135.7+8.580%
Last 5 (5)75.262.6137.8+12.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (12)68.269.2137.4-1.150%
vs Weaker (18)74.860.6135.3+14.289%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.3+1.31st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: +3.3+3.3
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.3+1.31st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: +3.3+3.3
North CarolinaDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#180
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A25/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#72
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H02/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A04/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#142
L
25-47
25
47
-22
A08/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H11/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
34-35
34
35
-1
H14/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A19/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
L
19-27
19
27
-8
A23/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H25/02
NCAA
Florida State
#342
W
43-25
43
25
+18
A28/02
NCAA
66.5Avg total
33.9Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.432.467.8+2.960%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.931.068.9+6.973%-
Last 30 away (15)32.933.966.7-1.047%-
Last 10 (10)33.932.666.5+1.340%-
Last 5 (5)33.829.062.8+4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)40.737.778.3+3.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)33.533.266.7+0.350%-
vs Weaker (9)37.329.266.6+8.189%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#241
W
43-25
43
25
+18
A28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#142
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H01/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H04/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
W
27-25
27
25
+2
A11/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
31-23
31
23
+8
H15/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#180
W
40-27
40
27
+13
A18/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H26/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H01/03
NCAA
65.9Avg total
35.9Scored
30.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.131.867.9+4.373%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.429.868.2+8.688%-
Last 30 away (13)33.134.567.5-1.454%-
Last 10 (10)35.930.065.9+5.990%-
Last 5 (5)37.828.866.6+9.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (12)33.635.368.9-1.858%-
vs Weaker (18)37.829.467.2+8.383%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
North Carolina wins
4
Duke wins
DateGameScore
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
05/02/22North Carolina v Duke67-87
06/03/21North Carolina v Duke91-73
06/02/21Duke v North Carolina87-91
07/03/20Duke v North Carolina89-76
08/02/20North Carolina v Duke96-98 OT
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/23AFlorida State77-66
25/02/23HVirginia71-63
23/02/23ANotre Dame63-59
19/02/23ANC State69-77
14/02/23HMiami (FL)72-80
11/02/23HClemson91-71
08/02/23AWake Forest85-92
04/02/23ADuke57-63
02/02/23HPittsburgh64-65
25/01/23ASyracuse72-68
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/23HNC State71-67
26/02/23HVirginia Tech81-65
21/02/23HLouisville79-62
18/02/23ASyracuse77-55
15/02/23HNotre Dame68-64
11/02/23AVirginia62-69 OT
07/02/23AMiami (FL)59-81
04/02/23HNorth Carolina63-57
01/02/23HWake Forest75-73
28/01/23AGeorgia Tech86-43

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW63%
HomeWLWLW87%
AwayLLLWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %63%87%40%
Points / game77.179.874.4
Allowed / game71.668.674.7
Point differential+5.5+11.2-0.3
Avg total148.7148.4149.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%53%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (2)50% (6)
Overtime %7%0%13%
Duke
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW73%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLLW38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %73%100%38%
Points / game72.176.566.4
Allowed / game64.060.968.2
Point differential+8.1+15.6-1.8
Avg total136.2137.4134.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%59%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)100% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %3%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virginia2923679%68.260.5+7.7
2 Duke3022873%72.164.0+8.1
3 NC State3122971%78.470.3+8.1
4 Clemson3021970%75.168.2+6.9
5 Pittsburgh31211068%75.969.3+6.6
6 North Carolina30191163%77.171.6+5.5
7 Miami (FL)61362559%76.672.9+3.7
8 Virginia Tech31181358%74.469.1+5.3
9 Wake Forest31181358%76.773.8+3.0
10 Syracuse31171455%74.172.8+1.4
11 Boston College31151648%66.370.0-3.7
12 Georgia Tech31141745%69.670.5-0.9
13 Stanford31131842%69.867.7+2.1
14 Notre Dame30111937%70.071.8-1.8
15 SMU Mustangs30102033%70.174.8-4.7
16 Florida State3192229%69.676.7-7.1
17 Louisville3142713%64.075.6-11.6
18 California3032710%58.370.2-11.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina312657
Duke332962
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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