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Duke vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 01 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 87-70
47-25 40-45
Position#7
Record18-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game59.5
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Position#111
Record13-9
FormWLLWL
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game76.2
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Duke v North Carolina
07 Mar 2026
DUKE76
NORT61
14 Mar 2025
DUKE74
NORT71
01 Feb 2025
DUKE87
NORT70
09 Mar 2024
DUKE79
NORT84
04 Feb 2023
DUKE63
NORT57
02 Apr 2022
DUKE77
NORT81
05 Mar 2022
DUKE81
NORT94
06 Feb 2021
DUKE87
NORT91
07 Mar 2020
DUKE89
NORT76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Mason
#31
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H18/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
W
82-56
82
56
+26
A21/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
88-65
88
65
+23
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
W
89-62
89
62
+27
A04/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
76-47
76
47
+29
H08/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
86-78
86
78
+8
H11/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
89-54
89
54
+35
H15/01
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
88-63
88
63
+25
A19/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
63-56
63
56
+7
A25/01
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
74-64
74
64
+10
H28/01
NCAA
1H
2H
25-16
43-31
41-36
41-20
37-27
51-38
41-32
48-30
34-24
42-23
44-36
42-42
50-26
39-28
40-34
48-29
35-22
28-34
33-37
41-27
139.5Avg total
80.3Scored
59.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)80.059.5139.6+20.590%
Season at home (14)80.959.6140.5+21.486%
Season away (6)77.859.5137.3+18.3100%
Last 10 (10)80.359.2139.5+21.1100%
Last 5 (5)80.063.0143.0+17.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)72.559.2131.8+13.275%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)78.861.3140.1+17.481%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
W
97-81
97
81
+16
H30/12
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
70-83
70
83
-13
A01/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
74-73
74
73
+1
A04/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
W
82-67
82
67
+15
H08/01
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
63-61
63
61
+2
A11/01
NCAA
California
#268
W
79-53
79
53
+26
H16/01
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
71-72
71
72
-1
H18/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
H25/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
L
65-73
65
73
-8
A29/01
NCAA
1H
2H
40-29
57-52
31-37
39-46
39-32
35-41
39-24
43-43
26-20
37-41
39-29
40-24
36-35
35-37
31-29
35-38
46-45
43-44
44-42
21-31
149.5Avg total
76.9Scored
72.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)81.776.2157.9+5.559%
Season at home (13)86.476.5162.9+9.869%
Season away (9)74.975.8150.7-0.944%
Last 10 (10)76.972.6149.5+4.360%
Last 5 (5)76.672.2148.8+4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)82.389.7172.0-7.30%
vs Similar (14)80.078.7158.7+1.350%
vs Weaker (13)84.667.1151.7+17.592%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-15-8+0+8+151st half1st half: +9.0+9.01st half: +4.9+4.92nd half2nd half: +12.1+12.12nd half: -1.2-1.2
-15-8+0+8+151st half1st half: +9.0+9.01st half: +4.9+4.92nd half2nd half: +12.1+12.12nd half: -1.2-1.2
DukeNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Mason
#31
W
25-16
25
16
+9
H18/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A21/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A04/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H11/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
50-26
50
26
+24
H15/01
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A19/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
35-22
35
22
+13
A25/01
NCAA
NC State
#293
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H28/01
NCAA
67.0Avg total
38.0Scored
29.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.328.766.0+8.683%-
Last 30 at home (21)38.127.866.0+10.381%-
Last 30 away (9)35.330.766.0+4.789%-
Last 10 (10)38.029.067.0+9.090%-
Last 5 (5)40.431.071.4+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)33.829.062.8+4.875%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)37.828.666.5+9.285%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H30/12
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A01/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A04/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H08/01
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
26-20
26
20
+6
A11/01
NCAA
California
#268
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H16/01
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H18/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H25/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A29/01
NCAA
69.3Avg total
37.1Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.335.573.8+2.870%-
Last 30 at home (20)39.735.074.8+4.775%-
Last 30 away (10)35.636.472.0-0.860%-
Last 10 (10)37.132.269.3+4.990%-
Last 5 (5)39.236.075.2+3.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)33.343.076.3-9.70%-
vs Similar (14)38.338.176.4+0.157%-
vs Weaker (13)39.530.970.5+8.6100%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Duke wins
6
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
09/03/24Duke v North Carolina79-84
03/02/24North Carolina v Duke93-84
04/03/23North Carolina v Duke57-62
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
05/02/22North Carolina v Duke67-87
06/03/21North Carolina v Duke91-73
06/02/21Duke v North Carolina87-91
07/03/20Duke v North Carolina89-76
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/25HNC State74-64
25/01/25AWake Forest63-56
19/01/25ABoston College88-63
15/01/25HMiami (FL)89-54
11/01/25HNotre Dame86-78
08/01/25HPittsburgh76-47
04/01/25ASMU Mustangs89-62
31/12/24HVirginia Tech88-65
21/12/24AGeorgia Tech82-56
18/12/24HGeorge Mason68-47
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/01/25APittsburgh65-73
25/01/25HBoston College102-96 OT
22/01/25AWake Forest66-67
18/01/25HStanford71-72
16/01/25HCalifornia79-53
11/01/25ANC State63-61
08/01/25HSMU Mustangs82-67
04/01/25ANotre Dame74-73
01/01/25ALouisville70-83
30/12/24HCampbell97-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW90%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20146
Win %90%86%100%
Points / game80.080.977.8
Allowed / game59.559.659.5
Point differential+20.4+21.4+18.3
Avg total139.6140.5137.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%71%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL59%
HomeWWWLW69%
AwayLWWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22139
Win %59%69%44%
Points / game81.786.474.9
Allowed / game76.276.575.8
Point differential+5.5+9.8-0.9
Avg total157.9162.9150.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%46%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)50% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %9%15%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2018290%80.059.5+20.4
2 Clemson2218482%77.066.1+10.8
3 SMU Mustangs2217577%82.971.3+11.5
4 Louisville2216673%78.669.6+9.0
5 Wake Forest2216673%69.766.2+3.5
6 Stanford2215768%75.970.5+5.5
7 Pittsburgh2114767%79.670.9+8.7
8 Florida State2213959%77.271.4+5.8
9 North Carolina2213959%81.776.2+5.5
10 California21111052%75.775.6+0.1
11 Notre Dame20101050%74.770.4+4.2
12 Boston College21101148%71.075.3-4.3
13 Georgia Tech22101245%74.573.2+1.3
14 Virginia22101245%63.365.2-1.9
15 Virginia Tech22101245%70.072.6-2.6
16 NC State2191243%69.767.3+2.4
17 Syracuse2191243%74.277.6-3.4
18 Miami (FL)2141719%75.480.7-5.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke474087
North Carolina254570
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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