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North Carolina vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:45
Final 69-82
42-43 27-39
Position#111
Record20-11
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game75.9
North Carolina
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#7
Record27-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.5
Allowed / game61.1
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · North Carolina v Duke
07 Feb 2026
NORT71
DUKE68
08 Mar 2025
NORT69
DUKE82
03 Feb 2024
NORT93
DUKE84
04 Mar 2023
NORT57
DUKE62
05 Feb 2022
NORT67
DUKE87
06 Mar 2021
NORT91
DUKE73
08 Feb 2020
NORT96
DUKE98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#173
L
65-73
65
73
-8
A29/01
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A01/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H08/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
65-85
65
85
-20
A11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
88-82
88
82
+6
A15/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
97-73
97
73
+24
H20/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
81-66
81
66
+15
H22/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
96-85
96
85
+11
A25/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
92-73
92
73
+19
H01/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
91-59
91
59
+32
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
44-42
21-31
25-47
45-40
35-32
32-34
33-49
32-36
42-34
46-48
54-26
43-47
46-34
35-32
49-43
47-42
46-31
46-42
46-29
45-30
156.1Avg total
81.2Scored
74.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)82.175.9158.0+6.265%
Season at home (17)85.974.9160.8+11.076%
Season away (14)77.477.1154.6+0.350%
Last 10 (10)81.274.9156.1+6.370%
Last 5 (5)91.471.2162.6+20.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)76.488.2164.6-11.80%
vs Similar (11)77.678.1155.7-0.545%
vs Weaker (14)87.069.8156.8+17.2100%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#111
W
87-70
87
70
+17
H01/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
83-54
83
54
+29
A06/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
78-57
78
57
+21
H13/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H15/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
80-62
80
62
+18
A18/02
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
110-67
110
67
+43
A23/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
97-60
97
60
+37
A26/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
100-65
100
65
+35
H02/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
93-60
93
60
+33
H04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
47-25
40-45
37-23
46-31
41-35
30-42
38-23
40-34
49-34
57-36
43-29
37-33
54-37
56-30
47-32
50-28
47-30
53-35
40-27
53-33
154.7Avg total
90.5Scored
64.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)83.561.1144.6+22.490%
Season at home (19)84.160.8144.9+23.289%
Season away (11)82.561.5144.1+21.091%
Last 10 (10)90.564.2154.7+26.390%
Last 5 (5)96.062.8158.8+33.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)83.561.1144.6+22.490%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-18-9+0+9+181st half1st half: +5.3+5.31st half: +14.8+14.82nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: +11.5+11.5
-18-9+0+9+181st half1st half: +5.3+5.31st half: +14.8+14.82nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: +11.5+11.5
North CarolinaDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#173
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A29/01
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
25-47
25
47
-22
A01/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H08/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A15/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
54-26
54
26
+28
H20/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A25/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H01/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A05/03
NCAA
78.7Avg total
42.0Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.036.274.2+1.867%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.434.473.8+4.975%-
Last 30 away (14)36.538.274.7-1.757%-
Last 10 (10)42.036.778.7+5.380%-
Last 5 (5)48.232.680.8+15.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)31.645.076.6-13.40%-
vs Similar (11)35.737.773.5-2.055%-
vs Weaker (14)42.131.974.0+10.3100%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#111
W
47-25
47
25
+22
H01/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
37-23
37
23
+14
A06/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A08/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H13/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A18/02
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
54-37
54
37
+17
A23/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A26/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H02/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
40-27
40
27
+13
H04/03
NCAA
73.8Avg total
44.3Scored
29.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.729.269.9+11.590%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.828.068.8+12.889%-
Last 30 away (11)40.531.371.8+9.391%-
Last 10 (10)44.329.573.8+14.8100%-
Last 5 (5)46.231.077.2+15.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)40.729.269.9+11.590%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
North Carolina wins
4
Duke wins
DateGameScore
01/02/25Duke v North Carolina87-70
09/03/24Duke v North Carolina79-84
03/02/24North Carolina v Duke93-84
04/03/23North Carolina v Duke57-62
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
05/02/22North Carolina v Duke67-87
06/03/21North Carolina v Duke91-73
06/02/21Duke v North Carolina87-91
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/25AVirginia Tech91-59
01/03/25HMiami (FL)92-73
25/02/25AFlorida State96-85
22/02/25HVirginia81-66
20/02/25HNC State97-73
15/02/25ASyracuse88-82
11/02/25AClemson65-85
08/02/25HPittsburgh67-66
01/02/25ADuke70-87
29/01/25APittsburgh65-73
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/25HWake Forest93-60
02/03/25HFlorida State100-65
26/02/25AMiami (FL)97-60
23/02/25AIllinois110-67
18/02/25AVirginia80-62
15/02/25HStanford106-70
13/02/25HCalifornia78-57
08/02/25AClemson71-77
06/02/25ASyracuse83-54
01/02/25HNorth Carolina87-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW65%
HomeWWWWW76%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %65%76%50%
Points / game82.185.977.4
Allowed / game75.974.977.1
Point differential+6.2+11.0+0.3
Avg total158.0160.8154.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%53%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)60% (5)60% (5)
Overtime %6%12%0%
Duke
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW90%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayWLWWW91%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301911
Win %90%89%91%
Points / game83.584.182.5
Allowed / game61.160.861.5
Point differential+22.4+23.2+21.0
Avg total144.6144.9144.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%79%82%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3027390%83.561.1+22.4
2 Clemson3126584%77.165.7+11.4
3 Louisville3125681%79.368.5+10.8
4 SMU Mustangs3122971%81.172.2+8.9
5 Wake Forest31211068%70.568.0+2.5
6 North Carolina31201165%82.175.9+6.2
7 Stanford31191261%72.870.4+2.5
8 Pittsburgh31171455%76.671.4+5.2
9 Florida State31171455%74.972.7+2.2
10 Georgia Tech31161552%73.772.6+1.1
11 Virginia30151550%64.866.2-1.5
12 Notre Dame31141745%73.773.0+0.8
13 California31131842%75.576.9-1.4
14 Virginia Tech31131842%69.072.9-3.8
15 Syracuse30121840%75.478.7-3.3
16 NC State31121939%69.570.3-0.8
17 Boston College31121939%70.475.8-5.4
18 Miami (FL)3172423%74.080.6-6.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina422769
Duke433982
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