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Florida State vs North Carolina Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 14 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#232
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game80.2
vs
Position#116
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Florida State v North Carolina
13 Jan 2027
FLOR v NORT
upcoming
24 Feb 2025
FLOR85
NORT96
27 Jan 2024
FLOR68
NORT75
27 Feb 2023
FLOR66
NORT77
12 Mar 2021
FLOR69
NORT66
16 Jan 2021
FLOR82
NORT75
03 Feb 2020
FLOR65
NORT59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-83
73
83
-10
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
75-74
75
74
+1
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
95-89
95
89
+6
H11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
79-80
79
80
-1
A12/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#309
L
69-112
69
112
-43
H03/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
91-68
91
68
+23
H07/11
NCAA
Florida
#54
L
72-81
72
81
-9
H10/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-38
41-45
41-36
39-35
46-30
29-44
45-27
46-51
46-32
49-57
44-43
35-37
27-54
42-58
37-26
54-42
29-31
43-50
40-28
44-32
160.5Avg total
80.9Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.080.2159.2-1.250%
Season at home (4)79.080.2159.2-1.250%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.979.6160.5+1.360%
Last 5 (5)79.080.2159.2-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)71.980.4152.3-8.525%
vs Similar (14)81.482.2163.6-0.857%
vs Weaker (4)86.865.0151.8+21.8100%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
78-82 OT
78
82
-4
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#188
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#253
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#70
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
34-39
27-37
31-39
48-41
39-28
36-47
39-30
41-42
51-34
58-36
31-29
45-34
31-38
39-40
152.6Avg total
78.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season at home (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.674.0152.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)82.673.0155.6+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)69.369.0138.3+0.367%
vs Similar (14)74.075.6149.6-1.650%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)87.670.8158.5+16.892%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: -2.9-2.92nd half: +3.3+3.3
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: -2.9-2.92nd half: +3.3+3.3
Florida StateNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A12/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#309
L
27-54
27
54
-27
H03/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Florida
#54
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H10/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#216
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H13/11
NCAA
73.2Avg total
38.7Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.736.474.2+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.734.772.4+2.956%-
Last 30 away (12)37.839.076.8-1.242%-
Last 10 (10)38.734.573.2+4.270%-
Last 5 (5)35.436.471.8-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)34.839.474.2-4.625%-
vs Similar (14)39.335.674.9+3.664%-
vs Weaker (4)41.030.271.2+10.875%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#188
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#253
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#70
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H14/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.6Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.635.874.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.633.873.4+5.774%-
Last 30 away (11)37.039.376.3-2.336%-
Last 10 (10)36.634.971.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)38.231.870.0+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.336.367.7-5.033%-
vs Similar (14)34.636.971.5-2.236%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)44.634.679.2+10.092%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Florida State wins
8
North Carolina wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HTexas A&M-CC84-60
10/11/26HFlorida72-81
07/11/26HTroy91-68
03/11/26HFlorida A&M69-112
12/03/26ADuke79-80
11/03/26HCalifornia95-89
07/03/26HSMU Mustangs91-78
05/03/26APittsburgh75-74
28/02/26AGeorgia Tech80-71
25/02/26HMiami (FL)73-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HGeorgia70-78
11/11/26HWyoming76-63
07/11/26HWofford109-70
03/11/26HWestern Carolina80-72
19/03/26HVCU Rams78-82 OT
13/03/26HClemson79-80
07/03/26ADuke61-76
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeLWLW50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game79.079.0-
Allowed / game80.280.2-
Point differential-1.2-1.2-
Avg total159.2159.2-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
North Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWWL75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game70.870.8-
Point differential+13.0+13.0-
Avg total154.5154.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
3 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
4 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
5 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
6 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
7 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
8 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
9 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
10 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
11 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
14 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
15 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
16 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
17 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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